Yep, that’s tough. I often get caught up with my emotions as well. But you’re right, live and learn. Live to trade another day, at least. Haha 
I hope you do better in your next trades!
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Hi all, sorry to be a bit absentee, recently; builders are knocking the house about at the moment so I have lost my regular place to trade, plus the kids have broken up from school. So I have not been at the screen much, and then mostly at odd hours.
In light of our previous discussions on this pair, I thought regular thread followers might be interested in a trade I took this week. I mentioned in previous posts that I would wait for a close outside of the range before placing a trade, and this approach gave me a setup which I took. We got a close above the 1.0800 level on the Daily on Thursday last week, with an indecision bar on the Friday. I was not around on Friday, but then we got a low test bar on Monday, 25/07. I took that as a trigger to go long.
I entered at 1.0836, TP at 1.0995, Stop 1.0789, which gave me a R:R of 3.3:1. My TP was hit yesterday for 159-pip gain, against a 47 pip risk, so a 3.3% gain on my account. I don’t often post my results on here as I prefer to discuss outline techniques and ideas rather than getting into sounding like a show off, but given that we had a detailed discussion on this thread about how to trade the range, and whether to look for long or short opportunities, and I mentioned how I would approach it (looking for a concerted close above or below the range before entering) I thought some of you guys might find it interesting to see how the trade played out (and that I practise what I preach lol!).
My intention in posting this is to give you all inspiration that basic analysis can work, and need not be complicated, and that sitting out and waiting for a clear direction to emerge gave me a good setup.
ST
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So is it time to short this pair? The daily has a doji 27/07 with a strong bear candle following it today 28/07. The Stoch has crossed down well into the overbought area. There is only a handful of data to be released given tomorrow is Friday. My only hesitation is the U.S. Debt issue that keeps lingering, although that does favor risk off and could help this pair. Also if a deal gets done, which it should on Monday, possibly this weekend, then I suspect the dollar will rally across the board and this hits at least what i percieve to be the first level of res. turned support at around the 1.0850ish level, but stronger support at 1.0750ish level. And finally if history repeats itself, the last time this pair reached the 1.10 mark it fell 5 consecutive days all the way to the 1.0550 area.
My newbie “prediction” LOL, is that there may be some kind of slight retraction on 29/07 and then it’s down for at least the 1.0850 level.
So what do you think comdoll community? Please let me kow
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Chirp, Chrip. It’s awfully quiet in here. So hows my “prediction” looking now? I don’t know about anyone else but I pulled my trades now that threre is a good bit of support on the 1.08 area. once it breaks through though it looks to go another 100 pips or so. I’ve made 2% on my account over the last 2 days. i suspect someone else has too. Let’s hear about it!
Hello Snook. It is a little quiet on here, perhaps Happy Pip is getting nostalgic and rereading the Harry Potter books!
I have not traded AUD/USD this week, as I took a nice Short on AUD/CAD based on Monday’s Daily chart and did not want to double my exposure to such a similar pair. Took 2.2%, though, so sounds as though it behaved similarly to your AUD/USD trade.
Nice pips all round!
August is, in my experience, the toughest month of the year - limited volume, basically making the market less predictable - so good to have started with a decent win.
ST
Hey guys! What’s up?? Yeah, I’ve been taking some time off trading for a while, trying to figure out whether there’s anything I should adjust with my trade plan in general. Soul searching, if you may. How are you guys doing with your trading?
Welcome back! In terms of my trading, I was trundling along quite nicely, but am sulking this morning as I was short USD/JPY and SGD/USD and they both stopped out overnight, presumably on the back of the Japan nuclear news (the spikes at 0200 GMT on Yen pairs are quite something).
But aside from some short-term grumpiness I am fine, thank you, and trading is going well. Just don’t like waking up to find my account 2% smaller than it was when I went to bed!
How are you? Has your reflective pause led to any conclusions? Are you making any changes to your approach? It can be helpful to have some distance from time to time. I have often thought about doing that during August, as the market never seems to run as cleanly.
Or were you really just reading Potter books? JK Rowling has hinted that she might write another, anyway, so don’t despair just yet!
ST
Well Happy, For the last 2 weeks and now this being the 3rd week, it’s like I see the charts with so much clairity. It’s as though my epiphany has arrived. Sure I’ve had a few trades go the wrong direction, like when the BOJ descided to flood the market right when I shorted the USD/JPY pair literally an hour after my trade. and a few others. But I have netted about 250 pips in the last week and a half. Now much of that stemmed from the debt issue and markets falling off cliffs. I just went along for the ride. But if you looked back on my “prediction” on this pair a few post ago, thats kind of what I’m talking about. My routine has been to wake up and turn on the business channel just to get a feel for if it’s a risk on or risk off kind of day. Then look at any data that came out during the London session (when I sleep) to target which pairs I should be looking at. Then go with technical analysis from there. My charts always have the 10 and 20 EMA on and I’m finding once I get a cross wait for a little bit of retraction so that price action gets into the open space between the 2 EMA’s. And then look at S/R zones to see if I should not enter, wait or move more quickly. I have to thank ST though. About the time this all started to “click” was when he mentioned price closing above or below S/R zones on the daily charts. I use that as a guide for the day so if there is a daily bear candle far enough away from S/R I wait for crosses (on higher time frames) of the EMA’s to the downside and vice versa for a Long position. Oh and finally, I try to only place trades when two sessions are going on at the same time. Some of this sounds a bit oversimplified and looking back on it, seems like everyone should know these things after a week but thats my framework. And hey it’s working!
From the technical view though, I have been doing this long enough now to look at charts and see formations, a few harmonic patterns, and confirmation candles during or after a reversal so that I am really targeting my entries so that i can place tighter stops and keep the risk aspect to a minimum. This is the part that i found I had the most trouble with a few months ago. I would miss the bus so to speak and then try and chase it. Now I’ve learned to find the bus stops and wait, if I can take that analogy too far.
hello all you audusd traders! i see a setup on the daily chart. long at 1.0450. strong support there. what do you think?
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Given this is a Friday I’m not so sure. It has some good support but given Thursday’s huge drop this might just be a retraction. I’m going to wait until Monday myself. Over the course of next week, this has consolidation written all over it. I’m going to wait and watch the bounce and then possibly short from there. I need to look at next weeks data coming out before I do much else. I scored big off this pair yesterday so I’m going to take the long weekend and take a wait and see approach. But you should catch something off the retraction at least, just don’t get greedy!
Well, for my part I am delighted that you found my post helpful.
You reinforce the general point that there really is no substitute for screen time. It gets said on this site a lot but it really is true. I treat this as a career, I have since I started, so I make sure that each week I put in some pretty consistent time in front of the screen, even if the market is choppy and I am not looking to trade, and it is amazing how eventually patterns, S&R zones etc just start to become obvious. People talk about having a strong strategy, and obviously that is important, but I think it is equally important to put in enough screen time that one understands how to employ the strat.
Very glad that your trading seems to have reached another level, from there it sounds as though it ought to continue heading in the right direction.
To take the thread back to its main focus - anyone else watching how the AUD/USD chart goes today? There is a chance that the Daily will close as a low test off the 200ema, out of a line of Resistance become Support…
And I liked the bus analogy!
ST
It looks like this pair might have found some traction to get back some of what it lost. I’m not getting in this til after the US announcement later today. But it looks like it’s about oversold to me. Lets see if it can close in the positive and then maybe. I think with what has gone on over the last 10 days the US Fed is going to HAVE TO say something to bring bulls back to the stock market and that should help risk sediment.What do you guys think?
Yep, it found a bit of support right at parity and I bet plenty of traders were waiting with long orders there. Caught almost 200 pips with the bounce on demo, but I doubt it’ll stay above 1.0000 for long. But, you’re right, we should probably wait and see what the Fed has to say before taking any USD trades for this week. They might say something to restore confidence in the US markets, but if they don’t it could be risk aversion all the way!
Indeed, with such big moves and volatililty I would not enter off an order, I prefer to feel it out live, but had I been trading at 3am today I would probably have taken that low test on the Hourly for a quick Long trade with a 1:1 R:R parity on any pair tends to offer a retracement opportunity, in my experience.
I was watching the Daily yesterday for a long entry, as I noted on this thread, but obviously it did not give anything. I am not overly concerned about the US news in particular - I just think that I am now at the point of staying out of AUD until the chart as a whole has settled down a bit. Feels like it should turn around at some point, but as it has dropped over 1000 pips in a week it is not making me want to jump in right now, in either direction! So I am just staying out for a few days while monitoring it closely.
Wish I had held last week’s AUD/CAD Short a few days longer, though!!
ST
After this big drop the 50% retractment obviously lines up on the 1.05 level (1.10 down to 1.00 don’t even need the Fib tool for that one) and that also happens to be where alot of previous support lined up. after the FED news here in the states this pair jumped up nicely. I suspect it hits that 1.05 level and thats what I’m going to wait on. after that I’d like to see if it break back above that level or it acts as resis. then like ST says I’ll start looking for trades. i suspect alot of ranging on this pair, but thats anyones guess, between the 1.05 area and the 1.01 just based on the daily chart over the last 6 months or so. Hopefully it settles down over the rest of the week and next week paints a clearer picture.
and for those who missed the FED announcement, the sum of it was they won’t raise rates for at lease the next year and a half with U.S. growth being very slow. Overall a gloomy picture.
OH WOW! That was a massive 500-pip drop! How much of that did you catch?
I really should start watching crosses from now on…
Whenever I see a trending Pair hit an all-time high with more than one indecision bar on the Daily chart (particularly around the level of a big number) then I will generally look to place a Short. I only risk 1% per trade, so that is my maximum downside, yet when they work they tend to fall really well. Saw the same happening on AUD/USD but didn’t find it as clean as AUD/CAD and I would not enter both as that would effectively be risking 2% on one move.
So I entered at 1.0504, Stop at 1.0547, TP at 1.0155, caught 349 pips.
Always easy to be greedy after the fact, but I had a feeling that Price could drop all the way to parity then bounce back, which is actually what happened. So delighted as I am with my 349 pips (against a 43 pip risk, could do with a few of those each year lol), I still feel like I left an extra 140 or so pips on the table.
Which shows the crazy psychology of trading - I am a pretty risk-averse trader, so targeting the previous swing low as I did with my original setup is the right call, as that is what works for me over time. However, everyone gets a gut instinct from time to time, and when you do it can be tough to ignore them and then see that they were right!
But mechanical trading is what pays the bills, so it’s all good overall.
And yes, I love the crosses - predictable trends and regular big moves - what’s not to like?!
ST
So all the COMdoll pairs are sitting in triangles right now. I am doing everything I can to keep from making an emotional trade, it’s been a slow week (by slow, I mean I haven’t put on many trades because everything is out of thier ranges and channels with all the volitility). I have been trying to sit on my hands and just wait and see where everything settles. I Really want to wait on this pair to hit the 1.0450 area so I can place a short. I am hoping you London time people will push this pair around enough for me to wake up and place a trade.
We’ll do what we can for you, lol! But seriously, looking at the comdoll Daily charts, we have a run of quite long bars of similar length, which to me say indecision. Particularly given that it is a Friday, I am going to stay out of these pairs today and hope that next week brings a little more clarity!
Have good weekends, all, if I don’t speak to you again today.
ST
