In my opinion, the rebound of the Aussie has just finished, now it’s time to go short.
not sure about that elisab could rebound up off 0.93381 which is a strong weekly level.
I can see that copper prices are slightly recovering (well attended by the Aussie), but I have also noticed that the market quickly liquidates Aud.
AUD/USD doesn’t seem ready to head south just yet! The pair bounced off the key .9300 support area, which is around the neckline of the double bottom. Right now, it looks ready to make another test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily time frame. But with stochastic pointing down, bears might still be in control!
Higher lows and lower highs… Well, it looks like AUD/USD is stuck inside a triangle formation on its 1-hour time frame. For range-lovin’ day traders, you could still jump in a quick short until the bottom of the triangle. If you’re patient enough to wait for a breakout, keep your eyes peeled for a rally past the .9450 handle or a drop below .9350.
I’m a total Forex noob…
This is nerve wrecking for me… I just moved from the US to Australia and am looking for good timing on transferring the proceeds of my Boston home sale so I can buy a home here in Brisbane. Should I wait and see if the AUD/USD may dip down a bit again in my favour, or should I make the transfer now before the pair moves up…? I have no clue what to do, and it’s keeping me up at night. I hate gambling and I’m in a position where I have to do it now with a lot of money 
I’ll keep a close eye on the posts here and I’m trying to learn as much as possible. What tools do you guys use to draw these detailed charts?
Thanks guys!
Erik
Hi vanderneut Im doing the same soon but UK to Brisbane having already done new Zealand to UK a year ago ,it is a worry transferring money like that,and what ever timing you try to do you can guarantee you get the timing wrong,so I say bite the bullet and change it now and be able to sleep at night and to hell with the consquences,and hey don’t drink all the beer before I get there :21: good luck mate.
Thanks buster48 for the encouragement. I hear you and I feel the same now – just really need to be able to just sleep at night 
This morning I transferred half my money when I saw that the transfer rate quote came out 2.5% more favourable compared to Saturday. Definitely relieved about that. Curious to see what the AUD will do in the next few weeks. I can transfer the other half in a couple of weeks… Fingers crossed.
I don’t actually drink, so there will be plenty of beer left when you get here. Good luck with the whole move!
Erik
Here’s a potential break and retest scenario for AUD/USD. Thanks to the recent run in risk appetite, AUD/USD was able to climb back to the broken support zone around the .9600 major psychological level. This is somewhere in between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zones, which might act as resistance.
AUD/USD seems to be having trouble sustaining its rallies so a quick pullback might be what it needs to gather more steam. If that’s the case, it could retrace until any of the short-term Fib levels on the 1-hour time frame, which are right in line with the rising trend line. Stochastic is showing a bullish divergence, too!
Bounce or break? AUD/USD is currently hovering around the bottom of the rising channel that’s forming on its 1-hour time frame. Stochastic is deep in the oversold region, hinting at a potential bounce, but it’s tough to tell if bears still have enough selling power in them or not. A bounce could take the pair back to the middle of the channel though!
Hi all!
Is anyone else considering a long on the AUD/USD on the daily? I’ve read at a number of places the only way is a short on this considering the Governors statements on the aussie, however I can’t see this happening over the next week even with the OCR release on Tuesday.
My daily chart is screaming bullish divergence on both stochastic and RSI indicators, giving higher lows/lower highs, as attached.
Along with the technical’s, fundamentally I agree with most that Stevens will keep rates on hold come this Tuesday and that the market has already taken this in to account in the exchange rate. Meaning - if the OCR is kept on hold the affect will be minimal at best.
However, I disagree with most that Stevens will eventually drop rates next year. In fact, I think he will be more likely to be under pressure for his next rate change to be an increase.
The reasons being:
- real estate values are increasing at a reasonably fast rate as a result of the low rates, and the Governor expressed this concern in his last release.
- while unemployment is currently at about 5.6% (with most saying this is too high to justify an increase), I believe the trend will certainly start to head downwards as construction picks up - there has been a significant increase in building approvals - and once approvals turn into actual construction unemployment will fall.
- As property values increase and unemployment falls, prices rise eg inflation. With it currently at 2.2% (and by no means needing to worry about as of now) it will start to creep up. Remember the target is between 2 and 3% and any change in OCR takes time to effect the economy.
Sorry if I bored you all! But your feedback and thoughts would be good - to see if anyone else out there is on my wavelength! Remember - this is short term only - over the next week or two!
It is also interesting Stevens decided to have a go at the currency rate with the opportunity to have a bigger effect on Tuesday!
Cheers,
Sharpy
I know you are just looking at the Daily here but you might consider looking at s/r from the weekly… even if you only hold for up to two week… a/u would interest me if we test the 0.93610 Weekly close back in the week of 04/04/2010… This is only 59.5 pips below Fridays low… this is still very achievable. Looking at your divergence it would still be correct around 0.9360. Last two swings where roughly 20 trading days each, first swing was 600 pips, second was 470 pips, there is more symmetry here… the 128.6 fib is less then 20 pips from the 161.8 fib of the first swing, and less than 40 pips above the high formed on the week of 07/13/2008… Since markets are not perfect, I think these are pretty valid.
What’s the skinny:
I would be interested in a long off the 0.93610 s/r and exit around the 0.98924 in 20 trading days or less after this low is formed… You are talking about only holding for two weeks so that’s only 10 or 12 trading days depending on how you count Sunday. I think this would still be a decent setup for two weeks. Without going into too much detail here of what I pointed out above, there is more then enough confluence to suggest a long trade is the best choice here… fundamentals can also be in play here…
Cheers.
Been short since 0.9612, currently trailing a SL.
Looking to TP around the 0.93 round number region.
Spencer
Synapse Trading - Mind over Markets
For this AUDUSD, it could be potentially forming a bearish bat pattern. The price action right now is inconclusive as to whether the bearish bat pattern may form or not. Therefore, I am taking of the opinion that it could form. The key here is to find a price level where point C reverses upwards point D. This trade is thus trading the CD leg. A successful trader makes their money by taking calculated odds in their favor. If this trade works, then we would have caught the bottom of the CD leg. And we would have capture all the profits from the entire CD leg, in this case, this CD leg is worth +1400pips! Even better, this is a positive carry trade from holding a long AUD position. This trade looks too great to miss out.
LONG AUDUSD 0.9040-50 (if choose 78.6% as retracement)
SL 30-40pips
TP final 1.0400
LONG AUDUSD 0.8950-60 (if choose 88.6% retracement)
SL 40-50pips
TP final 1.0400
It could be a severely deformed bat: In the current economic climate, I can’t see the RBA standing by and allowing it to run to those sorts of levels as depicted in the chart. But good luck anyhow.
AUDNZD
Planning to long at psychological round number support of 1.1000
SL 1.0950
In that case, you might like this video. The relevant section starts at 4:57.
My mistake is I should have waited for the bounce up to 1.11 or 1.12 before going short. Now I’m probably going to be stopped out :34:
