Interesting analysis. I agree with you, but am also watching the 240 chart - neat downtrend for the last three weeks or so, interacting nicely with the 50ema, which Price is sitting just below right now. With that trend, the 50ema and parity all kicking in around the same time, it is certainly giving us something interesting to watch. I am waiting to see how today’s bar closes on the Daily, but I was kind of hoping for a high test, as I would still be more comfortable shorting for any decent number of pips rather than holding a Long.
As I sit in the airport lounge waiting to catch my flight home, I notice a shooting star, albeit with a stumpy upper shadow on both the 1hr and 4hr charts. I’m hoping and praying this means a move back to 0.9900. I placed a short at 9909 this morning, thinking I could squeeze a few pips out of the market. Caught flat-footed again! This time, I did set a SL - at parity, and it came dangerously close to being triggered this evening (and could still happen).
I’m just blown away at the 300+ pip rally from 9620. I wish I had done my homework a bit better and found out that support now comes in at 9600.
well looks like your going short just passed that level. However I am waiting to see if it bounces north on the 1hr trend line I talked about last night also got r1 pivot right in this area with a 61.8 retracement of the last swing. if these hold I will take the other side of that trade for a quick move back to pairty and tighten up stop at that point. Things are deffently going to get intresting as price was rejected of pairty. my levels seem to be holding to suggest a 2nd attempt as we enter the second half of the hour and ny close. Now are we going to see another try to take pairty in the asian/aussie session or was this just a retest of the daily confirming price is not done going south. Also must note pairty is mid point of last weeks high/low. Resistance is heavy right in this area but if price can break it I see it going to 1.0200 there not much in its way. Its got some momentum as a stonrg up move one the 4hr to back it and a up trend on the hourly only time will tell
Well NY closed my trend line held so did the pivot point and the 61.8 fib and made a doji on the one hour. All these combined with the fact a baby pips member just sold me my long position I have to take this trade. I am long @ 9914 + 4 pip spread (.9918 break even) looking for your stop. And since I know where you stop is its only fair you know mine just below the 76.4 fib @ .9850 2% account risk. Lets do it
Well ok current sea trader congrats looks like here shortly you will be the proud owner of 2% of my account. Witch by the way would be a good time to move stop loss to lock on profits (if you have not done so). If i am going to give my cold hard cash to anyone let it be a babypips member (at least any member but pip bandit he has enough of my pips). Honestly I should have cashed out a while ago but was not around the screens and with 8 pips to go whats the point just let it run. I dont think you are going to go to .9600 but thats my opinion. I will be back at the hmmm just below .9800-.9700 range. Lets see what the daily and 4hr have to say. I really need to take my own advise I remember posting today on another thread the daily is screaming momma said to knock you out well I got in and got knocked out. Funny to anybody else but me right now (however even I just got a chuckle as I just got stopped out lmao )
Since we’re all airing our AUD/USD laundry, I have to confess that I am also in a Short - I entered 1600 yesterday (UK time) off that doji I mentioned yesterday on the 240 chart. I set a slightly ambitious target of 0.9720, but seeing as that would give me 3:1 I will trail my Stop up before then, should things go my way. The picture is looking decidedly mixed at the moment, so Bobmaninc I would not write your pips off just yet…!!
Well I was stopped as I checked this morning before heading to work. My stop was the swing low (I just love it when that happens) and I would be up 20 pips this morning not I trade I rally would have wanted to be in anyway but +20 is better than -20. I will wait and see I cant trade till asian session anyway:(
Ah - sorry about that, missed that earlier low spike. Well I’m not out of the woods, yet. 12 pips or so up, 75 pip risk. Not setting the world alight, yet!
Ok, I’m out with a 3 pip profit again. Another measly profit but again, I’m happy to have not lost a trade. The whole thing is ambiguous right now, and to muddy the waters more, nothing concrete has yet come out of Europe on the debt situation. So for now we could think of this recent upward pressure as purely speculative buying. I’m tempted to sit on the sidelines for a bit longer before I next commit.
Bob, I think your pips are safe from me, I’m just too green right now!
What I lost 2% and all you got was 3 pips then there only one name that comes to mind pip bandit strikes again. Either that or thats why happy pip has such a big smile on the profole pic lol
ST looks like to got a nice little trade here if you are still in your trade. I see it going for at least 30-40 more pips before turning north. Dont remember when you said you got in (since I was the last post I decided to edit instead of put a new post so I can scroll and look.) but it should be around 100 pips. Nice just getting to the 61.8 retracement I think its got a little more to go then I am back to my long hunting again. I wouls start now but I will be head out to church here shortly so unless its big I will wait it out
Wow did I just have a scare of a life time I have never had this problem before. The trade I watched get stop last night was just open and down 160 pips. The messed up part was this morning I looked at my plattform there was no trade open. This afternoon after work I was looking to trade and had no trade open I come home from church and my trade was open. Hit up my broker and they could not tell me what went wrong but fixed it on the spot. I am talking from the moment I hit the live chat icon to see the trade closed and money refunded was less than 5 minutes. I have mixed feelings about this I have herd of this happening not with my broker but with others but never seen it. However there fast response to fix it gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. I even sent him a link to this thread just in case. I posted here while I watched it get stopped with a time stamp on the post (got to love babypips). I feel a little better now I freaked. A 2% loss turns into an easy 20% oh hell no. No trades today Got a little bounce but its not screaming anything at me I am going to bed. Built some faith in my broker today yes my stop got screwed up witch stings but if they fix it then hey no harm no foul.
Sorry, missed this one: yes, my TP was hit overnight last night. Happy to post the details: my Entry was 0.9932, Stop at 1.0007, TP at 0.9720. Around the 3:1 level, so with my standard risk it put 3% on my account. Phew - you had me worried with all the talk of going long, I’ll admit!
Gosh, have never had an experience like that, must have been a heart-stopping moment. Glad that they sorted it out, I guess overall it has given you more confidence in your broker, which is always good.
Not sure what AUD/USD will do next, I am out right now. Looking at the Hourly and 240 charts we are getting some nice cyclicity for what could be a downtrend, but I thought I would take the money rather than ride a retracement and hope.
“Take the money and run” is always sound advice. I have learned this the hard way. I have seen positions of mine in green and thought to myself “I think I’ll leave it a bit longer and get more profit” but then it turns around and rapidly goes back the other way.
By the way ST, how did you go about deriving all those figures you quoted - was it some Fibonacci tool?
Yes, particularly in the current market my instinct is to take the money as soon as any doubt enters my mind, as long as I am up by better than 1:1. I would usually do that by trailing the Stop, in order to give it a chance to run, but at the moment I am definitely safety first.
That trade was a combination of factors, happy to run through them: clear downtrend on the Hourly, 240 and Daily charts, so I was looking for short entries. I saw that we had a doji bar on the 240 chart (1200-1600 London, 27th September). The doji was at the top of the latest retracement, and also rejecting the 50ema. I drew a Fib from the most recent high, and saw that the same doji was rejecting the 50% Fib level (on the same chart, Price has just rejected the 38.2 Fib level, which I did not trade but is an indicator that we might see some further downside) - this Pair respects Fib well.
The doji was sitting on the Weekly Pivot, so I set my Entry for a few pips below the Weekly Pivot, following a close below it to give me confirmation. I set my Stop a few pips above parity, knowing that that level would give me some protection, and to account for the spread (two pips on my platform).
In terms of TP, 0.9700 has acted as Support previously, so I wanted to be conservatively inside that level, so went for 0.9720, which still gave me a decent return while being pretty high-probability. Turned out to be the right call, as Price briefly touched 0.9700 then retraced right back up. Should go back down, but I’d rather get out on the first pass at the moment.
I hope that that all makes sense, I have tried to post a chart to help make it clearer, but it is my first attempt at posting an image so might not go too well lol…
Basically it was a standard S&R trade, with confirmation from Fib and in the direction of the trend.
Apologies in advance if the image screws up the post!!
Sorry, obviously have to work on the scale of my charts when I upload them lol!! All the action I have just described takes place in the right-hand inch of the chart - sorry about making you squint. You can see the overall shape of the trade, anyway, I hope. The short bar that almost touches the 50ema (red line) just below parity is the one that got me excited.
Yes that is a nice trade and something I forgot to ask my broker about is I cant seem to get weekly pivots. The settin gonly go up to 24hrs witch is not very effective when looking at the daily. And my heart almost popped out of my chest when I seen all of a sudden. But hey I can forgive something as long as it gets fixed and dont happen again. Fist time shame on them but if it happens again shame on me for letting it happen again. Fxsolutions seemed to be a good company the only bad review I read on them was stop hunting but theres not enough money in it to stop hunt me so I am not worried about. Funny thing is as I checked my chart this morning I would have been almost back to break even anyway. Heck and with gongress voting on how much money to they want to spend that they dont have today. Depending on how that goes it could have gone into profit by the end of the day. But generally when congress says we are going to spend more money we dont have even though we told you all a few weeks back we were going to cut spending(yeah right suckers). The US dollar seems to rise so for now I will be sidelines probably till next week. Witch stings a little because I made only one trade and even after everything I went through last night it was still a loss. Not good to end my week butt it is what it is better tradeing next week.
As you can see from my chart, I have both the Weekly and the Monthly Pivots on my charts. I consider the Monthly Pivot absolutely essential to my analysis of the Daily chart, and the Weekly very important to my analysis of the 240. So I would certainly explore with your charting provider. Can’t advise on how - I use eSignal, and anything and everything appears to be bundled, it is all just a right click away!
Losing trades at the end of the week still get me a little cross, but if you have faith in your overall strategy they are a pain but not a problem. I know a lot of traders, and I have never met a winning trader who did not take the odd losing trade.
Many thanks indeed for this, and no need to apologize. Appreciate your efforts! Actually, I opened your chart in a separate browser tab and enlarged it (very easy to do in firefox), so I could see what was happening. Must confess, I’m still not 100% up to speed with the technical stuff you’re doing and discussing (still in the elementary school section of the Pipsology thing), so I won’t ask you any technical questions until I’ve covered the relevant material.
Just to clarify: You mentioned you waited for a doji to appear. I have taken your picture and drawn a red arrow pointing to the doji to which I think you’re referring. Is that the one?
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