Price made a lower high on the Daily recently (1st September) which is often, in my experience, a sign that an uptrend is faltering. Plus the 1.0200 Support was pretty soft, anyway, and with it being not that far north of parity (this pair can move a fair way within a day compared with some) I did not see any Support there that I would want to put my money behind.
That’s one of the fun things about Forex trading - there were many people on various blogs etc. advocating going long from the 1.0200 level, but there were others advocating going short from the same level for a run to parity. Each camp could make a case for their viewpoint, and noone - obviously! - knew the definitive answer. So we all get to make our call, then see how it plays out.
It reinforces the point that we must all make our own call on this stuff. We can all listen to all the opinion we want, and that can really help, but at the end of the day it is a very personal thing. I think that there were more people on Babypips advocating long from 1.0200 than there were saying wait for parity, but frankly I would do what I think even if I felt in a minority of one. Hope that doesn’t make me sound like some arrogant monster (!), but I think that there can be a tendency for the group opinion to take on a momentum of its own. At the end of the day, there are thousands of traders out there, and only maybe 200 active contributors on Babypips - so I don’t mind being in the minority from time to time.
Anyway, apologies for another ramble, just thought that that was a key point. One closing thought - if this uptrend has turned, then I would not necessarily assume that it will resume from parity. This is the second recent run on parity, so I will be looking carefully at whether Price turns around and I want to look for long positions, or whether Price successfully breaks through and I want to be going short. Too early to tell, imho, so for the moment I am flat.
And I lost the fastest 1% of my account in ages shorting SGD/USD of Tuesday’s high test on the Daily, pipped me in then shot straight through my Stop all in a few hours, so I am not always right lol!!
Good morning happypip. Hope you’re okay, a little tough 'n choppy out there at the moment, sigh…
Lol no, I have gone with the penultimate sentence of my post of first thing this morning (UK time) - ‘
This is the second recent run on parity, so I will be looking carefully at whether Price turns around and I want to look for long positions, or whether Price successfully breaks through and I want to be going short’ - parity put up barely any fight at all, in the end, obviously giving no Entry, and the Daily shows that we are now in a clear downtrend. So while things are a little choppy and I am currently flat across the board, I will basically look for a retracement and look to go short.
That’s the thing with trading - we stalk a trade for ages, then it just doesn’t set up and that’s that. I spend much more time stalking than trading. Frustrating, but there it is.
How are you finding the market at the moment? Your blog sounds pretty positive! I am doing okay, but not as good as I would hope in September, not by a long stretch. End of day trading is very hit and miss, and intraday is very newsy.
You were completely correct, ST. I applaud your wait-and-see approach. I have to admit that like the rest of us, I was sorely tempted to take happypip’s tip and place a long at parity or thereabouts and I nearly did. But another part of me said not to, because the global fundamentals just don’t support it. I’m glad I didn’t! I have been watching the rate slowly descend from parity this morning; anyway you look at it, it has broken past this key support on the 4 hour chart (not just a false break) and is now flirting with 9920, which I think is the next support from the August lows. My gut feel is that it still has some way to go (possibly next support at 9700), simply because the FOMC statement of yesterday contained some frightening language along the lines of “the US is struggling and faces many risks”. Also, I’m guessing any little further hiccup in Europe will cause another 100-200 pip tumble. So I too am inclined to sit on the fence for a bit until we can find a bottom somewhere.
But it was a great idea ~ that swing long from parity, but if only we had all executed it last month…
P.S. A bit about me. I have been lurking here for a few days. I am a fairly new trader (a few months), some initial successes but then I started to struggle big time (and still am). Hence I’m here to learn and improve and to avoid making any new mistakes. I hope you don’t feel like I’m barging in here. I am happy to be here.
Well I did go long a pairty but quickly realized the push down south was not over and was able to get out with a 25 pip gain. Still not a winning trade in my book anytime I risk more than I gain. We will see just how far it wants to go. My bias is still long but looks like I will be watching and waiting a little longer.:rolleyes:
Well, thank you for that, but it’s a 50-50 call so I’m bound to be right half the time lol.
I am sure that noone thinks you are barging in, quite the opposite, more opinions make for a better discussion, and happypip runs a very welcoming thread!
Amazing drop on AUD/USD this week - now that Price has taken out the low of 9th August (and assuming we close below it on the Daily), the next significant level looks to be around the 0.9700 level, as you say. So assuming Price today closes below 0.9930 we have consecutive lower highs and lower lows, at which point it appears that we are in a downtrend. So my immediate bias would remain short, look for any short entries that appear, then play it by ear. A bit of a crazy week across the board!
In my opinion, as long as the original entry is sound, closing a trade early following changing market circumstances is good trading rather than bad trading. I don’t take a trade at worse than 1:1, but if the situation develops and invalidates my entry criteria I will always close early and grab what pips are available (or take a small loss before it turns into a big loss!). I’ll bet a lot of people were caught out by the swiftness of some of the moves today. So nice working grabbing a profit from what turned out not to be a winning trade!
well my bias was still long. And I indeed went long @ 0.9773 and just got stopped out @ 0.9828. So about a 50 pip gain was hoping to see a retrace to 0.9900-0.9500 and that still looks valid. I just moved my stop a little to tight I guess (it happens). All is good though that ends my week in profit not much but better than a loss. Well under my target for the week but I cant complain with 3 loosing trades and 1 winner not bad by any means I will take it. I have to go back to basics I went a little over board on my trading so its time to reevaluate my mind set. This week could have gotten ugly (and honestly probably should have). I limped home but have no scars to show for it. Hope you all make some pips tomorrow by the time I am off work there about an hour left in trading no point looking at charts at that time. However my long bias still holds I live in the states this whole operation whatever is just a load of crap its not going to do much and its only a matter of time before the rest of the world smells the stench comming off it. Good luck and happy piping.
I too am leaning on the long side, having seen solid support holding (for the time being) around the 9700-9730 region. Yesterday, I foolishly shorted at 9745, thinking I could get an easy 20-30 pips under my belt. Then minutes later, the rate when flying upwards, hitting an overnight high approaching the 9900 region. I was spewing, because I didn’t use a SL. I’m thinking if I had only taken a long instead of a short, I’d be over 100pips richer! Well, I stubbornly stuck to my guns and this morning, the rate [I]finally[/I] decided to come back down and I walked away with a measly 2 pips profit. You might laugh (and I wouldn’t blame you) but I was happy just to get out alive. Phew!
As you can see, I’m still a bit hazy on picking the exact moment of entry for a trade. There’s gotta be a more reliable way of doing it than what I’m using now. I haven’t yet done the School of Pipsology programme - maybe I should that soon. I’ve made many crazy mistakes in the past (like not doing any formal study of the subject), so I’m hoping this sort of stuff is covered there.
You really need to do the Babypips school, or something similar, if you are even thinking about entering the current market without a Stop Loss, in my opinion. With the current big moves going on, with the markets being so quick to react to even quite minor news stories, that is they way you burn accounts. You got away with it this time, but it will hurt you over the long term, imho, unless you [I]really[/I] know what you are doing.
In terms of overal bias, from a technical point of view I don’t see much reason to expect things to rally. It is no surprise that Price rose a little when it his the 0.9700 level, as there will have been a fair bit of profit taking - there is almost always a retracement when Price hits a major level of Support. Whether it holds - personally I will not be going long right now. If we get a break and retest I would, however, look at a Short. Price reaching the 0.9200-0.9300 area is not a crazy idea. Stick a 200ema on your Daily chart and see what you think…
Anyway, basically I am staying with a short bias until the chart tells me otherwise, and I am currently seeing no reason to go long. As ever, just my thoughts, though. But if you go long, do use a Stop Loss…!!
I agree with ST take the school and you must use a stop loss in this current market or you are just asking to be put in the elite group of traders that blew out there accounts in record time. ST is also right about not going long on this market (he is usally right about alot of things but I wont tell him that) however seems like everyday after my nap there seems to be a doji on the 4hr. I have played all of them this week and got my butt kicked although most where valid I was just not trading them right. till the doji last night that one worked out but even then 50 pips on a 4 hr chart is not much. Enough for me to walk away with a smile but thats about it.
Welcome to the thread, Current SeaTrader! I’m actually happy you’ve finally decided to jump in. I couldn’t help but chuckle at your .9745 trade, btw. Phew indeed! I remember the feeling. You must have had clammy hands and accelerated heart rate watching the price action. :))
I agree with ST and bobmaninc though. You should think of setting a stop loss (even a mental stop loss - not an exact figure, but an area where you pull out your trade) so you could manage your losses. If you know your maximum loss per trade, then you’re most likely to follow your trade plan no matter what the price action is. Hope this helps
Great thoughts on the direction of the pair, guys. The question is, what are we going to do with that tempting doji on the daily chart?!?!?! I’m soooo tempted
Awww thanks! I just try to call it how I see it, the wheels come off for me, sometimes, just as they do for anyone. But I appreciate the sentiment.
I am personally staying away: I have friends who have shorted following the high test a couple of bars ago on the Hourly chart - it coincided with the pivot and with the 50ema, enough for many traders to short it. The 240 chart is also currently looking like setting up for a short with a high test. But we have two consecutive indecision bars on the Daily, which will be leading some to look at going long… Tough times to call this pair.
Personally, I nearly took the short off the Daily two bars ago (I think from memory that there was room for a 1:1 with a TP above the 0.9700 Support), but in the end elected not to, not wanting to push my luck. So I agree, the Daily chart looks interesting, but I am staying out for now. But if I were to trade it today, I would be short rather than long - lower highs and lower lows on the Daily, with such a sharp sell off, are enough to keep my bias short for today.
Indeed. I would certainly prefer a nice clear high or low test, given the recent lack of clarity. Dojis can too often simply mean indecision without a clear overall bias. At least high/low tests give some indication of who is winning the argument!
Agreed I still say my bias is long but not looking like a setup is comming very soon but I will be watching. The doji on the daily looks tempting especially with that hammer sitting with what appears at least right now as I watch it to have broken to the top of the doji even more tempting with a doji that formed on the 1 hr close to a pivot point and support of the small little trend line that is fighting to form (they all got to start somewhere right). Also it just broke a wedge to the top side one the 1 hr. However I think I missed the boat on this move and I only really see it going for about another 20 pips or so before it tries to correct. So I am sitting this one out. Trading in a pretty ugly range. But if it does correct back down to just below the .9850 areaafter breaking the .9925 area I might look to go long it will now confirm higher highs and higher lows witch is what I love about markets like the old saying what goes up must come down. Well in this game what goes down must come up. Still a little to shaky for my blood at the moment plus I have been watching charts for a while now and going to walk away for a bit (everyone needs a break) then its probably bed time for me got to be to work early in the morning. Good piping to all
I sure hope it holds!
