This is the most family-friendly thread on Babypips lol! Mine are all at pre-school/school this morning hence lurking on Babypips.
ST[/QUOTE]
Cool to have a couple of family guys in this thread. Represent! 
Represent! I confess I love that US expression, we donât have it over here. Glad to help prove that small children and Forex do mix. Indeed, some would say that Forex is the most child-friendly profession - hyper-flexible hours combined with unlimited earning potential!
Did anyone catch that AUD/USD Long opportunity yesterday, good low test rejection of 0.9400 on the 240? Interesting to see whether it is a retracement or a reversal.
ST
haha I have been waiting to go long for so long and I missed it. Imagine that
The double irony is that I have been advocating Short for so long, until we saw signs of reversal at Support - and I took the Long. But with the forest fire you have bigger things to think about, perhaps. How is that looking?
winds have shifted for the time being so I am in the clear as long as it stays that way. We have some stoms expected to hit the are tomorrow and fridday so that should bring some relief for fire fighters hopefully. They dont look like its going to bring much relief but hey something is better then nothing at all. They still got alot of roads closed in my town so fire still rages on. Nice smokey ride in to work this morning.
Letâs hope that smoke & fire clear up soon!
Can anyone explain in fundamental terms the monstrous 200+ pip rise? In the current environment of risk-off all-round, Iâm utterly speechless.
there is not alot of news after so many days of going down we have to see a pull back some time and with Europe saying will we capitalize there banks sure will help this happen. However I dont see this lasting if they dont fix the underlying problem it will be back to risk on. Its sort of like throwing money at a fire to put it out. You might see instant results but your just throwing fuel at the fire. I think this will do little to help more of an anti dollar rally and it working. On this pair the daily has been begging for a real retracement and I see this pair going as high as pairty or even the 200 ema that will be probably around the 1.200 area so for now I will look for a retest of the trend line on the 4hr before considering to go long but be careful as there is no sustained trend on the 4hr and with last months low sitting there with the quatarly low for resistance things might get shaky. The daily looks like this is just a minor correction. However it is the first on since it smashed pairty last month.
Just like the saying in the karate Kid movie " risk on risk off " lol.
Hey, CST. What time frame and day you looking at for that 200+ pip rise??
It began tuesday about 2pm est (about .9400) and hit a what appears to be top (.9672) about 5 hours ago(about 4pm est). It looks real pretty on a 1 hr chart. IMO I think its is just a retracement on the daily. I will be look to go long right now on short intra trend moves as it works its way to .9800 witch is about the 61.8 fib retracement of the last swing on the daily. If it breaks that area then looks like we are going back to pairty.
Thanks Bob. Yes, I believe it was Tue evening, 7pm GMT. Crazysac, I was basing my observations on the hourly chart. It rallied up to about 9570 or so, from just above 9400. Then it backed off a bit before resuming another ascent to about 9670. Since then, it has been VERY quiet which I suspect is because of a lack of fundamentals guidance.
So Bob, just trying to replicate what youâre doing with the Fib tool. Iâm assuming youâve used 9400 as your swing low, but what swing high did you plug in?
Yes, I am still in my Long based on Tuesdayâs low test rejection of 0.9400 on the 240. I have a perhaps-slightly-ambitious target of 0.9895 set. Price is currently bumping its head on the Weekly Pivot, which I am obviously hoping it breaks. I am getting out this afternoon regardless as wonât be in the market on NFP day tomorrow.
ST
Yes sir it was the daily I am referring to pullback from about .9625 up to about .9987. I pulled my fibs from the top of that move to the low at .9400. Its did hit the 61.8-76.4 area witch is what ITC calls optimum trade entry. I have not used it a whole lot myself but have played around with it and I have to agree with him the is a very very valid area to watch. This area just also happens to be resistance on the daily to so⊠I do like this nice little up trend forming on the lower time frames but this daily is making me approach with extreme caution for any long entries. I will be watching this pair very closely here for a while since I am home now and can trade. This can go either way imo so price action and risk management are going to be of the upmost importance.
On a side note we got rains in today that bought alot more rain than expected and with the winds blowing away firefighters have set back fire to clear out all the underbrush thats fueling this fire. Tomorrow is expected to bring more rain than today. So I am not out of it yet but looks like they are getting this fire under control witch is a huge relief. Fires were less than 5 miles from the house and I reallt didnt want to deal with this since we just got the place you talk about luck whew. God bless them fire fighter out there they have been working around the clock.
Hello everybody. Looking to short this pair this week on a swing, just want to wait for some bearing confirmation. Hopefully head down to 9400??? Thoughts??
BTW ⊠happy to hear about the rain.
Yes, I was looking at the same setup (and the slightly neater one forming on NZD/USD) but did not take it as I donât trade Bank Holidays. And a glance at todayâs chart makes me glad that I donât trade Bank HolidaysâŠ!
Will see how things shake out and have another look at things tonight.
ST
That short play I was looking at certainly would not have worked out at this point. Looking to see if the pair bounces off parity ( little support turned resistance ) and comes back where I want it to. This is my first day of trading on a bank holiday - STâs comment and the movement so far makes me think it will be my last. Any thoughts???
Agreed my short last night didnt go so well I should have closed it when I had the chance. I am not sure what it looks like now but if your talking about pairty then yeah looks like I was stopped out. Oh well I had mixed feelings about that trade anyway thats the reason I kept risk under 1%. So no big deal. I did catch a trade off the cable that more than made up for the loss.
Can someone comment on why a strong NFP would lead to a stronger AUD. Thanks.
I am by no means a fundamentals expert, but I would say that it is often the case that the market does not react as one would expect to news announcements. This is one of the reasons that I do not trade them; I know that many on here do trade the news, but for me is is one of the least reliable ways to make money from Forex long term. Indeed, I just donât think it works.
In terms of yesterday: there was an AUD news announcement in the early hours of Monday giving the number of job advertisements in major AUD/NZD cities - this was in line with expectation, suggesting no weakening of their currency.
Secondly, yesterday was a Bank Holiday in the US, Canada and Japan. I never trade Bank Holidays in the first place - volume leaves the market, a little paralysis sets in among those left trading, they are more cautious than normal, so pre-existing trends and patterns have a tendency to falter or break. Plus, from my own historical analysis, it has always seemed to me that Price moves against any currency during âitsâ Bank Holiday, almost as though those on holiday are being bullied by those who are working, pushed around in their absence. So I would have expected, yesterday, USD, CAD and JPY all to be weak. That would be good for AUD, that confluence of soft North American currencies and the strongest Pacific region currency being weak. Everything rose against USD yesterday - there is a general lack of confidence in the US economy, so a Bank Holiday hot on the heels of NFP will have meant that the market will be cautious about backing USD.
None of that is scientific, and will not always be the case, but that level of analysis fits more often than not, according to my own research.
I saw nice setups on a few Pairs, yesterday - including AUD/USD and EUR/JPY - but I didnât trade at all as it was a Bank Holiday, and in particular one following NFP. All the setups I spotted would have stopped out had I taken them, according to my analysis yesterday evening, which is an unusual failure rate for my strategy to say the least. So I am very glad that I stuck to my rules.
Hope that that is of some use - others might be able to go into the fundamentals in more detail, they are not my forté.
ST
Another way to explain it would be through the usual risk sentiment angle. A strong NFP is good news, not only for the U.S. economy, but for the global economy as well. This encourages traders to take on more risk for higher returns and, as a higher-yielding currency, the Aussie was able to benefit from the risk rally.
It may sound like a simple explanation but that phenomenon has been manifesting itself for the longest time. Instead of traders buying up the U.S. dollar on good U.S. data, they usually sell that safe-haven off in exchange for riskier ones.
Hope that makes sense!
All true - and much punchier than mine, damn I need to learn to write shorter sentences! - but unfortunately not always the case, it can be all a bit random, so I just donât trade it.
ST