Yipee finally decided to stop trading to trade off pairty and trade to it instead. Forgot to look at the short I had from 1.0180 but looking at yahooo a minute ago. Looks like it is paying off hopefully will hold out till 4PM est when I get home to adjust my stop. If it can looks like I will end the week with a smile 
Well looks like I jinxed it about the time I posted that price went back up. I was a little nervous as price went 1 pip short of my stop and hung out there for a while. However was able to limp it back to move my stop to break even closed out with about a 5 pip gain. I could have probably held out for more but see a better trade setting up on GBP/JPY that with both trades open I would of had to have to much in the market for my liking so I eliminated risk on this trade. Witch I am wandering if I made the right choice as both trades look decent but both just got stop at 5 pips profit. So both trades I got 10 pips mmm better than nothing. That probably ends my week 1 loss 1 win 2 break even for a gain of 30 pips on the week. Not my best week but I can live with it.
Thanks for the responses happypip and ST !!
Thatâs okay and a good attitude for the current climate - if we all made half a dozen winning trades every week weâd all be rich, and that would get very boring. What would all the people do who like posting on the âDoes Forex Workâ etc threads?
Feels uncomfortable when trades move within a pip or two of the Stop, so I feel that - my coach calls it an âoh sugar momentâ. Weâre very polite here in the UK lol!
I like you thinking on this trade, though, even if it did not play out how you wanted. I am eying that falling channel on AUD today - both the Daily and the 240 (if you scrunch it up) show it quite clearly, three touches at the top side even if one is a bit fussy. What do you all think?
ST
I agree with you best of luck. Like I said after playing the pairty trades so much lately I think I got slapped in the face every time after a while to got to take a step back and try a different route. And honestly looking at the charts last night it almost looks like big money is stop hunting that area and doing a good job at it. they got mine on more than one occasion. But it cool if you stop hunt me once shame on you but if you stop hunt me twice on both sides of the trade shame on me. Have a good weekend
Regarding Stop hunting, if it does go on then a more generous Stop and taking a lead from the Daily timeframe should help a fair bit. Apologies for patronizing, I know that you already know this, but it is better to have a few extra pips on the Stop than to be stopped out and lose a chunk of an account. As long as they are factored into the risk and fit your trading plan then it makes sense, I think - I try to be pretty conservative with my Stops, seems to help. I get stopped out through bad luck and incompetence (on my part), but I donât fee like I get hunted.
Not liking the PA for the falling channel AUD trade at the moment - it being a Friday afternoon with some news out I expect I will sit out and see how the Daily bar closes today, see if I can pick something up for Monday.
Have a good weekend yourself!
ST
I hear ya it just looks like there is stop hunting going on there. But if it is going on they are not after my stop thats for sure. I just got caught in the cross fire witch can be directly related to to my incompetence to read my chart. And yeah not looking like your going to get a chance to trade that channel today. I cant see the chart but from what I can tell 1.0245 thats pretty high. If it does turn it better do it soon as the clock is ticking kinda why I am glad to be stuck at work on friday. And in all honesty I would just sit out now that 1.02 seems to be a nice S/R level and with attempting to break it will be intresting. Although with all the attempts it made yesterday I would not be surprised to see it get rejected and give up and go back down south today. Just going to have to wait and see
Anyone want to hazard a guess at the authenticity of this rally? Is it really a Santa Claus rally (which is what some of the reports are suggesting), or is it for real? Iâm getting mixed signals.
Whatâs a Santa Claus rally? Iâm getting mixed signals too. I guess itâll stay that way until euro zone reaches an agreement once and for all.
Itâs a phoney rally that takes place towards the end of the year. But hereâs the other side of the coin. This I suppose would be more relevant to a swing trading discussion:
Have a look at this comment section on forexfactory. Guest with IP ending in 211.79 seems to be suggesting that the medium term move will be well above the 1.10 highs we saw earlier this year, even up as high as 1.35 and beyond. Does this make sense? From a fundamentals point of view, an exchange rate of 1.20 will destroy the export industry in this country (whatâs left of it). Nevertheless, I have a sneaky feeling this guest is right. What Iâve noticed with the Aussie is that in the absence of any bad news, it has a long term tendency to creep upwards, and keep doing so indefinitely.
How low could the Aussie go? Thoughts, anyone?
I went long this morning off that double bottom on the Hourly out of Support around 1.0200. On the higher TFs we are still in an uptrend, things are very choppy at the moment so I wouldnât want to try to predict long term but my AUD successes recently have all been long.
ST
Me and the aussie are not on speaking terms at the moment. They will do what I want or else. Or should I say I will just keep throwing money at them untill they cant take it anymore lol. Somehow I think this might take a while. No I was wanting for price to go up and complete an head and shoulders pattern on the 240 before going short. But that didnt happen. I have no idea how far it wants to go so I will be on the side lines for now. I will try t get some pips tonight from the aussies but we will see. For now I guess I will just keep crunching number from the cot and trying to figure out Microsoft excel and how to properly make charts on it.
I havent really seen any posts on this but am I incorrect in seeing the aussie dollar in the second shoulder of the daily? I would assume an inverse head and shoulders on an uptrend would signal a continuation. The daily tech analysis on forexpros.com is recommending a strong sell so im conflicted. I see a bottom on the second shoulder which, given the forming h&s would indicate a long position in the next week or so. Fundamentally, the dollar should not be gaining strength against the aussie in the next couple of weeks. Regardless, whether or not the h&s is actually forming the it seems clear to me that the potential is strong enough that there is no way i would sell at this point. Am i missing something? Im still pretty new on price action trading but if it breaks the neckline i will be going long live. So any of you experts disagree or can give advice as to why a strong sell is being recommended?
Well if my calculations of the COT report are correct then this weeks weekly candle should be a red candle meaning it is going lower this week. I have already banked almost 50 pips on a short from last night. I do think I price is going up today though as we should form the weekly high before dropping to the down side and taking out the stops on the H/S as you say. I didnt see it last night but will double check this afternoon when I get home.
Yeah i dont think we will actually start seeing a bullish movement toward the neckline un ltil at least later this week. I think we are stil going to see it hammer out its bottom a few more days. That being said, if thia proves to be a true and typical h&s then i just cant bring myself to short the trade for any length of time (days). I think we are close to its bottom. I just dont think im seeinh the reasoning behind the daily strong sell on forexpros. Just wanted to make sure i wasnt missing something here. Im not fond of losing money
Well step one to be a successful forex trader is not to lose money and step 2 is to repeat step one
Reguarding you head and shoulders pattern I seen this on e the 4hr a few days ago. If you look at it on the 4hr the right should failed to form. The daily looks ok but I like better formation that just a few candles in the formation. However it could form but I just dont think it is a true head and shoulders pattern.
The AUSSIE is still well bid after Wednesdayâs impressive rally that caused a retest of the 1,0330 area. While below the 200 days line at 1,0414 we expect the AUSSIE to slowly turn again lower.
The AUSSIE confirmed a positive closing last night while still remaining interior the big inside day with 1,0345 â 0,9930 the levels to follow in the coming hours.
The US market has still some open gap up and we expect them to be closed, sooner or later!! The indicators of the daily chart are still positive but those of the s/t ones turned all below the line supporting further weakness.
The break this morning below 1,0190 confirmed a triple top formation in the hourly chart suggesting lower levels with the 200 hours line at 1,0038 the attraction. Possible s/t rebounds should find resistance at 1,0225.
I stay short.