Have you ever been 100% sure for some trade?

That was a good read Tommor. Can you please share what strategy are you on and also the brokers that you use???

Hi @Kellyyy - I am using several strategies right now to maximise the use of my account and margin.

  1. London Opening Range Break-out - This is on the GBP/USD and involves a sell when price initially breaks upwards from the London open, or a buy if it breaks downwards. There are lots of variations on the London ORBO.

  2. Long-term trend-following - I buy into the strongest uptrends of the pairs which match off the strongest currency against the weakest. Entry is on some sort of pull-back or occasionally a break-out. Vice versa for downtrends.

  3. London session with-trend / counter-trend baskets - This is something I am only trialling. Sometimes the market goes into counter-trend mode, in which it buys downtrending pairs and sells uptrending pairs. I only have a few months of data on this but the performance is good enough to suggest its not random. Still a work in progress.

All the best.

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PS: I also use the long-term trend-following on the Dow index, long-side only. This makes way more for me than trend-following forex.

Iā€™m 100% sure like most here. The difference is that my system is 99.93% accurate. I call the Brooklyn Bridge FX System. Check it out here. Itā€™s only $497 - a steal really.

I used to be 100% sure of my trades and had to ditch the trust after a series of disappointments. Most of my profitable trades comes from trades I wouldnā€™t take if I were using a discretionary approach. For example, I just closed a counter trend position I took on Gold. I do not like trading counter trend moves but my counter trend system twisted my arm to go long. Amazingly, the trade bagged about 350 pips in just a few hours.
So, I am never sure of my trades but I am sure my system knows what it is doing.

Never.

Accuracy is independent of certainty. There are plenty of things that happen which only make sense too late. Thatā€™s because of a lack of total information, or a necessary gap in your own knowledge. If you legitimately think you have all the information, you most certainly do not. Since there is always a possible lack of information, you simply leverage against the amount of uncertainty.

Hindsight isnā€™t even 20/20. It takes a few looks to really understand wtf was happening.

@forextt ; when you have a strategy based on indiscretion and are surprised by the results, that is called Luck. Luck exists in trading at a <5% ratio. Since losses make your buying power less effective but wins only increase liability, it is biased against you quite severely.

The system will work until it doesnā€™t, and then what? Canā€™t it be better? Long term discretion is less dopaminergenic than a short term burst of profit but is always more consistent as you can react to poorly adapted market situations for said system more easily and sink in hits.

100% percent means you r wrong . there is nothing like this in the markets .

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I think this is key. You canā€™t know how the trade will go but you can know whether it fits your trading system or not and act accordingly.

I agree with you. The market is volatile so you can never be 100% sure about a trade

Yes, in fact many times. Just that what I see on the charts then is not what I was sure of. So that is where the problem rises :slight_smile: but on a positive note each day is turning out to be better than the last.

I absolutely agree with you, due to so much fluctuations in the market it is difficult to gaurantee 100% success

There are rare trades where Iā€™m sure for 90% that the trade will play out as I planned. Basically such trades are based on a signal which is a result of some rare political or economical events and technical setup + some seasonal patterns. But such trades occur maybe 1-2 times in a year and you should be quite patient to wait for these events and pick the right position size and appropriately limit risks.

I have been into forex trading for more than 4 years now and never felt that I am sure for any trade to be successful. I believe that we should not prepare for the best but should prepare for the worst. I am not saying that I don;t know how to trade but we canā€™t predict the volatility of the market. So always try to make a strategy and test it before opening a trade.

Haha 100% sure, i guess nobody ever is. Forex is just too risky. You think you are going right, but one news, one event and it might turn against you. I have experienced this several times when trading XAUUSD and EURUSD.

No Never!!!
There is no 100% trade. Trading is so risky. I have never been sure 100% in trade. The more potential reward you look for or the lower the investment you try to make, the greater the risk you must take. This rule has no exceptions.

BTCUSD, is my pair. Quite often i am 100% sure about my trades.

Yes and ive been wrong on them too lol The market is going to do what its going to do

I donā€™t think itā€™s possible for us traders to ever be 100% sure about a trade. The market is quite unpredictable and sometimes, even the most obvious moves turn out to be the opposite. Sometimes the guesswork works but not always. We can hardly predict in which direction the market will go.

i am mostly 100% sure, but then market happens :sweat_smile:

I am never 100% sure about my trades. Trading is risky and market dependent. How can be anyone be 100% sure of trading?