You’ve got a core methodolgy. Everything else just says when NOT to take it… but it should be something that looks at other factors than what your already looking at…which is statistically overbought/oversold.
BB in many ways will confirm what your already doing…which is relative overbought oversold.
i would add other things… sup/dem levels…or for your situation, more classical support/resistance.
don’t go long into a massive resistance level.
don’t go short into a massive support level.
Trend maybe…and I’d use trend lines to draw this out…not MA’s or any other indicator
Only take buy signals if they are in line with the daily trend for example
Possibly market sentiment. that could be a GREAT one for you. it’s completely independent…it would have gotten you in your eur/usd short today… that much i know. not sure about your losing trade days…but it may have saved ur butt a little.
This is not a “technical” form of analysis… but it works, and this is even more reason to consider using it…b.ecause it is completely seperate.
Find out where you are in terms of average daily range. If price has moved up 130 pips already…i’d not take any long entries…but i’d be HAPPY to take short entries.
I understand what you are doing… and i think it’ll work for a long time. (at least in some form), but i also no one who can take a single trading concept (and i mean concepts that deliver INCREDIBLY high ROI’s of 80%+), and apply them blindly without considering anything else.
An 80%+ winning concept will turn 50%/50% at best if used in isolation from all other possible considerations…over time.
I’m a good example of this. I look to determine where orderflow is. I have a pretty darn good win rate.
I know how to look at a chart, and see where there is going to be more supply than demand…and visa versa.
Yet I also use market sentiment, overbought/oversold concepts, trailing stops, scaling in/out, daily pivots, fib levels, every time frame that I can look at to get a better idea of whats likely to happen, and lots of experience.
your trade today you could say worked because your methodolgy has an edge. and I think that’s part of it. But, we were also bouncing off a daily supply level, had not come into a daily demand level yet, and it was in line with both trend and prevailling market sentiment.
And no matter how you feel about it…all of these things played a bit of a role in the success of your trade.
ANd by the way…this is the type of situation that will allow you to risk MORE than usual on these trades… and even keep some on the table for a longer run down.
and conversely, if not as many things had lined up for you…you would risk less, trail stops tighter…etc.
The bottom line is this man. I like what you got going on. It’s solid. But is it enough? is it enough to make sure you can do this for a living for the next 30 years? or even 5 years?
I would argue likely not. not alone. you need more filters. But forget a filter that measures the same stuff your already doing. and don’t u dare put an stoch, RSI, or macd on this. that WILL confuse you.
Stick to things that measure something other than relative overbought/oversold conditions. like sentment, trend, S/R, average daily range, even pivot points and fib retracement levels)
i suppose by the time you add things like this and learn to understand how they all work together, it will take more work for you, and more time to get it all down.
and then you’ll likely have tools like ICT does, or I do. and you’ll have a WAAY better understanding of when your edge will hold up…or when to back off and wait.
Oh hey…look at that…you’ll be thinking truly like a top trader by then. What do ya know! It may not be as simple, but it will likely guarantee you can do this FOREVER, and make a FORTUNE
Or you could just simply rely on hope. hope that it works as well as it does now. hope that market conditions don’t change much forever. hope that the euro even exists in the future for that matter! and hope you get rich before any of this comes to pass.
Simple is good…as long as it doesn’t blind you to the dangers that lurk in the markets.
If I were you, I would invest in a good pair of reading glasses to best see that map you found buddy 
Jay
