I’m not even sure what side of the market he’s on…lol. He said short, but his stops & targets look like a long…confused!
Where can I get that indicator?
I think your right for the short term R carter…my risk is reduced to an acceptable level right now for this trade, and
I will look to see how price evolves here.
I have several possible scenarios i’m considering for what may happen… and until I can figure out which one is going to play out… I am just going to sit with this trade… as it may target before the push up, and I’m not sure what they push up may evolve into. are we hunting at 1.3540-50? are we pushing to supply around 3580-3610? are we hunting above this? or really breaking back out for a sustained move up.
Volume and PA looks like someone is aquiring… but because they aren’t pushing into a single tight zone of liquidity first…it has me thinking that this is a larger institution who is desperate to cover? as in…cant afford to sell off short and pop stops because too manyh willing buyers are also there and will absorbed said stop liquidity?.. or are they just biding their time until the market slows down in about 1 hr…the low volume drop off before london.
and if this is the case…waht is the implication? are they covering desperate right now? or just profit taking on some of their position because they themselves are not sure if the market will pull back substantially, or break down?
too many possible scenarios that point in directions i am not willing to bet anymore than I already have on. worst case I lose very little (maybe 0.13%?) Not that I WANT to lose this…and I woudl cover for a small profit if i get the opportunitity… but it may not come. I had to step out for a while…and since i was gone, the market moved up a solid 10-15 pips.
I’m fairly certain we’ll either pop up before moving back down… or down a bit and then up.
but i coulnd’t tell you conclusively which one is first. really have no idea right now
just wait and see from here.
Jay
I am glad I could sneak out 10 pips. The excitement is too much for me.
sorry sweet. i fixed it. trying to walk and chew gum at the same time can be a bit tough.
Jay
if i can get a filll on usd/jpy short at 76.80, 28 pip target, 30 pip stop… i’ll take it.
as long as price hasn’t hit 78.51 first.
risking 0.40%
order pending as of now…
Jay
turns out there is news of a soverign buying around 1.3500ish. this makes sense with what i’ve been seeing in price.
also, i’m seeing a small trendline take shape from the low of the open this week, to the low of the current 5 min candle.
the break of this trendline down should provide the market with ample liquidity for larger intitutions to fill up on the long side.
I now am fairly confident i can cover the rest of my positin with a very small profit… and look to get long between 1.3510 and 1.3480.
now i got that picture i’ve been waiting for 
of course…this doesn’t have to whip back down if there are enough short sellers and not enough long buyers…but nations tend to suck the liquidity out of the market for the short term. so a push to pop stops is actually necessary if any large player wants to cover what they’ve been short for the last few days/weeks without losing their shirt.
time to wait and see if it plays out as I see it.
Jay.
P.S. if we push up to 1.3600… this idea of mine will be invalid
Jay
the problem with a long play like this i’m hopeing for is that sentiment is still pretty bearish… this rally (if there is one at al) will likely be limited to short covering for profits or for a squeeze.
I’m thinking not over 1.3650, unless some i am underestimating the amount of net short exposue among the large specs… if they are more exposed that I currently believe them to be…a short squeeze could cauze an explosive ralley up…
hmmm. worth considering.
of course, i could just be dead wrong on all fronts here too. lol
Jay
that 5 min trendline is being challenged… i’m guessing we have a 2.5 hr window tops to break this line…otherwise… the likely hood is going to decrease., and I may neither get a small profit nor a fill long.
Jay
Hmm… seems bids are right now aroud the 1.3500-1.3480 level.
that being said…i’ll take my profit around 1.3505…
and i’ll look to get long between 1.3500-1.3475
5 min trendline about broken… it may take another 2 hours… but it looks like it has to go.
I just hope it goes down first before stopping me out. but no matter…a move down for a better order at a better price long looks very likely.
Jay
Ok… just got short on usd/jpy at 76.80this is now a 31 pip stop, 27.5 pip target.
risking 0.35%
last possible trendline breaks on eur/usd for the intraday trend up around 1.3520. I expect a bounce here now… but a shallow one… and then a continuation on down to the 1.3500-1.3465 level after that.
Jay
i’d expet bounce to end from here at 1.3528 - 1.3535.
yep. right on que. institutional block hits the market to drop price into liquidity.
came to the 1.3520 level and stopped…
now, question is… are they going to try 1 more time?
or is this all i’m going to get (which isn’t good enough btw)
my guess would be that this is just a “cleaner” drop. to clean out the excess orders…
the next time they sell strong into the market… those buy orders wont be there anymore…and price will likley drop through down to 1.3500.
but maybe not of course. we’ll see
Jay
btw. i’m watching a 1 min eur/usd chart right now… so u can find what i’m talking about on the 1 min 
so, for now…that lowest possible trendline supporting this long intraday trend held…
but… we know their intentions…and the players
and i think we’ll push lower in the next 1-4 hours. because they are interested in buying
and their long orders are on sale down below from where we are now
ya know…the nice thing here is, unless something really goes unexepcted… i think we might get a bit of a move up…to at least around the high of friday on eur/usd…about 1.3610ish
i actually believe we’ll get higher…and depending on how much this would scare other shorts…
we just might get squeeze all the way to around 1.3750
above high tho around 1.3800…i’d be surprised if we hit much higher than that.
Jay
P.S. I just really hope that price isn’t going to run away without me! doubt it will…but it could.
If it does stop me out…I may take a breakout above 1.3550 or a retracement…gonna depend on PA and volume as
price hits that high around 1.3540-50
looks like eur/usd is being sold off again… another attempt to push into the liquidity they need to get out without dying.
of course…this actually gets me thinking…if we can’t pull down far enough…
we may get a good size large spec short squeeze. that would push price far, fast. well worth jumpin in on and holding on for dear life! lol
Jay
At the risk of being accused of 20-20 hindsight, the overall trend is down and has been so for weeks. The odds are they won’t fix this situation (at least not this week or next) so the fundamental bias has to be 60-75% negative as well. You are right about the potential for a short squeeze but that reminds me of a hard way bet in craps- nice payoff but low probability. I am only working the short side and looking to re-enter if/when it rises to the 15 day SMA and keep the stop close at R1.
sounds like you got your plan buddy!
I will agree that sentiment is the one thing really stacked against much of a long move up right now… but as long as the key issues that the world is focusing on (EMF support, bond yields are the top two IMO right now) don’t get WORSE today…
or even improve just a bit… the fear of a change in trend ALONE should trigger a nice move to the upside.
if you were short 20K lots…and u heard rather petty positive news that didn’t phase you…but you thought MIGHT phase one of your hedge fund buddies into covering…well… you’d likely lighten up. no point in sitting for the retracement when your at a great profit now.
it’s not about them even needing to think that it’s better.
it’s just about a few big ones having any reason whatsoever that think that POSSIBLY someone…anyone…with decent size pockets will start to cover.
and besides…some asian soverigen nation has been acquiring aggressively around the 1.3500 level. who shorts against that??? big money if i ever heard of it
Jay