Well…as i was mentioning earlier…theres are official breakdown. i think just about pip for pip as I mentioned it would play out.
Now… the only thing is…at this point…i’m not exactly sure where we may stall. if folks raise their bids to a higher price point… we may not hit the order at 1.3500 as they wll have risen
I will be willling to cut my trade off with a profit for as high as 1.3510
anyway. lets see what happens next.
Jay
I’m thinking around 1.3520-1.3525 is where we will turn back down from now…
P.S. I hope so anyway! Target moved up to 1.3508
price is now retracing to the trendline it broke down from.
lets see if it turns… as i said…i hope it does! i would love to catch a profit on this trade, especially considering i hacked the entry so bad.
Jay
All good points. I have been hearing about the Chinese bucking up the Euro off and on since Soros brought it up several weeks ago. if you have any links on that, I would appreciate seeing them.
We may be in violent agreement. I think there should be a respite in the downtrend and, combined with that potential short squeeze we discussed earlier, it could bring the EUR up to 1.36+. That is precisely where I would like to re-enter short. The 15 day SMA is at around 1.3620 or thereabouts. There is where I would pull the trigger. BTW, I meant R2 on the stop, not R1 (which it would have blown through by then).
Good luck!
well…it retraced to that broken trendline to the pips…and is now sselling off as i thought it might.
i just hope it keeps on running.
Jay
we had a bit of a trendline running on the 5 min chart from the high of the day so far around 1.3538 across the swing tops of the 5 min chart.
unfortunately for me… price broke up above this… however, as europe draws closer to opening…the market is iable to do anything. well. not anything. but find size for it’s desired directional orders.
I just hope it can push back through this minor trendline that it broke out from…
does seem that it may at this moment. due to the fact taht price hasn’t exploded to the upside by now tells me this likely isn’t going to create a strong breakout move to the upside.
and I’m bascailly just above break even on my short at this moment,.
Jay
no sooner do i type my hope for the market that it obeys! crazy. it NEVER does that.
well… again tho…it’s about finding size.
seems there ARE NOW INDEED decent bids above 1.3500, all the way down to about 1.3450 now. stops primarily below that.
and… to you wheeler… your speculation is sound… 1.3600 does carry a hot rumor of offer size.
bids ahead of 1.3500. offers around 1.3600. price is currently at 1.3516.
i wonder which “size” it’s gonna hit next? (sarcasm)
Jay
short order on AUD/USD at around 0.9933. 30 stop. 29 target. risking 0.35%
Jay
price is pushing down strong…
trying to trigger the orders…
just missed my profit fill by 0.5 pips… so i closed out 50% at 1.35095
not concerned tho… the other will hit i’m sure…
yep…just did. at 1.3509
long eur/usd at 1.3510.
40 stop
70 target
risking 0.15%
scaling in this trade…first entry.
Jay
an added bonus to my thinking that eur/usd will move long is that if it does… my usd/jpy short might get a little bit of help as USD sells off.
:::shrug::: it likely won’t hurt much
Jay
put a stop on half of my current long order at 1.3492.
I want the reduced risk. I can always re-enter if things look great later
Jay
Closed 50% of my positon long at 1.3514
i want to wait for a bettter entry…
i’m willing to forgo the potential profit to be “as responsible as possible”
Jay
P.S. Stop on this last half of my trade is at 1.3490
Jay
To capture the most of what I belive will be a pretty substantial move up to at least 1.3580, I am going to map out how i will average in.
I am going to go
long at 1.3497
27 pip stop
63 pip target
risking 0.10%
long at 1.3484
35 pip stop
70 pip target
risking 0.15%
Long at 1.3465
36 pip stop
95 pip target
risking 0.15%
I may adjust targets and stops as the trades trigger.
Jay
I still think eur/usd needs to make lower lows…down to 1.3495 at least.
this is not the end of the road yet
Jay
P.S I could totally be wrong.
by the way…for those of you keeping track of my 6 TRADE MAX PER DAY rule… and may be itiching to call me on putting in way too many orders today…
The eur/usd long I am in right now…and the 3 orders below it are a single trade concept…therefore, it’s “one trade”
So. I had the first eur/usd short at about 3515. then the 2nd one at 3531.
then, my 3rd trade is usd/jpy short
this eur/usd is my 4th.
I will have potentially 2 more after this.
Jay
Ok…so, the first of 4 orders stopped out…and i must admit…seeing price cut through my orders like this is emotionally uncomfortable. it’s trades like these that I have the hardest time with… because somehow inside my head I allow myself to believe that just because I THOUGHT this was the 2nd best opportunity of the day over all, and I gave myself 4 ways to win it… that doesn’t mean the market will give it to me.
my expectation of sucess in such opportunities causes me disappointment when they don’t work out as i want them to.
this feels like it will fail. of course…only time will tell.
tomorow i wll go back and review this trade publicly if it doesn’t work out. so see what i can learn from it. this is the first trade i’ve had since starting this that is the type of trade i need to develop…something…more… to trade well.
Anyway…more on this later. now i got a split position on the EU long, and a usd/jpy short!
Jay
wow…can’t tell you all how much i want this swing low of about 15 min before london open to be THE swing low of the day!
if so…i nalied my 3rd entry nearly to the exact pips. 1.3484.
of course… this thing could tank flat against me in no time. and then i’ll just have 4 cool stop losses.
Jay
P.S. my entry was actually about 1.3484,5 not that it matters if it loses. and not that it matters if it wins
Jay
ALRIGHT…
I’m in long of course on eur/usd. ive ben correct on everything else so far tonight.
And none of that will matter much if this trade doesn’t work out.
However… i’ve got good odds. and It gels with my “internal story”…my understanding of what the market is doing and why.
I just hope that i’m right on this being a push into liquidity…and not a true selloff.
Jay