I also meant to post this link, this guy is doing the same kind of thing you are doing. He doesn’t seem to give alot of background about the specific trades, and he seems to have a broader basket of things he is into (for instance it seems like a fair portion of his gains are tied up in some silver trades) but I just thought others looking at your thread might want to look at a similar effort.
His timeframe also seems to be much longer, around ten years, and his expected account balance much smaller, although there should be enough data to average his returns out and see if he is ahead of schedule or on track for a much higher return.
Incidentally, after the webinar situation, I’ve got the impression that BP is kind of touchy about outside information, so I will state unequivocally that I have zero vested interest in anyone clicking on that link.
Jay, on another note, I also just wanted to mention something that you have maybe already thought of and have taken precautions regarding. I was thinking about your generosity in posting vids and doing webinars, and I would hate for any unscrupulous characters to take advantage of that. Have you considered the kind of information that is broadcast in those situations, such as your broker name, account number, etc? Or what you may have open in the background on your computer that may be visible for even a split second should you accidentally minimize your trading desk, or should it crash or whatever? You may not be recording the webinars, and you may be editing the vids, but others may record the webinars (along with whatever technical addressing information may be available from the broadcast, such as your IP address, although that may be masked by the webinar host). I’m not trying to make you paranoid, but if you have big $$$ in any way connected to the information you are broadcasting, you can’t be too careful.
I’ve worked in IT for years, so this is the kind of stuff I think about.
Also, i’m risking 0.25% on this trade. It’s not what I said I would risk… but this trade is a bit different than my typical AMSH trade (AMSH = Actively Managed SHort term trade)
If my thinking isn’t off… i’d say right were price is now may be the low for this trade…around 1.3156…
if we move much lower…the next prime stoping point is right aorund 1.3140-1.3125. after that… this trade is toast.
Jay
P.S. I’m wondering if I should make an emotional and impulsive decicision, and buy it again even if it hits my stop… because I “KNOW I’m right!” What do you think guys? and then… if that gets stopped out…maybe i should just buy it again regardless of where the next good level is…and double down on my bet. does this sound good to you? - the mind of a noobie losing trader
Ya…actually… a long here, right here, right now at around 1.3159 I think is really hot. Really excited about this trade.
IN fact…I just got in 1 more time…filled at 1.3161, with an 25 pip stop… 75 pip target…risking 0.05%
But this is all…only because we have a trendline break…and this is the price it is retesting it at… it’s also in a daily demand zone… and has not moved out really yet…making a parabolic move into the level. Also, this is one of 3 possible stalling points if this daily level is going to hold…and they hold over 50% of the time…so this really isn’t a bad bet. and sentiment is improving for the euro, it is turning a bit more negative for china (and this affects the AUD currecncy)and due to my RR… i only need to be correct 1 in every 4 trades to break even.
And i think i’ll be right on this type of setup more than 25% of the time. so its a good trade. I think I’ll actually be correct on this type of thing about 50-60%… even with this stop loss…so it’s a good trade.
and heck, if i’m right about this daily level holding at all…it’s one of 3 prices i want to buy at…that gives me a 1 in 3 chance for success if this daily level holds…which is above the necessary 25% win rate needed to BE.
So…i take the trade
Jay
BUT IF IT STOPS OUT, I’M DOUBLING DOWN AND REENTERING 50 TIMES IF NEED BE! CUZ I’M RIGHT!
This really looks like we are setting up for an explosive move to the upside in eur/aud.
we have the potential for what one trader who goes by the name “darkstar” at forex factory calls a “stop cascade” - at least on a small level. this is where stops are placed just so in a configuration that the stops of those who are short will remove available sell liquidity…and therefore push price up even higher…which trips up the new set up stops…which does the same…which sets off even higher stops…etc. this will continue till about 1.3270, but at that point there is a 30 pip liquidity gap, which will put price squarely at the 1.3300
furthermore, i’m seeing a price action pattern that I generally only see preceeding an upward move… and i’m seeing this start to materialize on multiple time frames… it’s looking very very good.
Hey Jay, Since ya asked, I dont follow EURAUD, but I just looked at it, and its about o come down in about 1-2 minutes, JMO, Will go up, but might be some time, maybe 30-45 mins or so, but I think you can get long at a better price by waiting for a bit, 1.3160ish?
Yup. Already in as a matter of fact. My super decoder ring determined it is a value trade with good R/R.
It’s a long term idea. It’s got a beefy swap rate, but if it doesn’t waffle around down low too long, that shouldn’t be a problem.
Likely to be in it until next week, or I decide to pull the plug.
No stop determined yet, nor t/p, just ideas. I’ll let price action kinda tell me in a day or so. The lot size is minimal, if it starts heading up, I’ll add.
I’m looking stay long until 1.36 or so, should it pan out.
I usually have one or two of these longer term things running usually. They generously add to the account in a nice steady way if you can find them:)
1.36!!! are you from texas!? do you have a big hat?! 1.36?? cowboy!
lol
Ya… i like the thinking here too…actually didn’t even consider swaps… and euro fundies are not hot either…
but sentiment is tilting in favor of euro over aud… and this is a parabolic move in… and PA is now stalling…
I don’t know about 1.36…as I see this primarily as a profit taking/short squeeze type bounce… not an actual “buy value” move…or not much of that anyway…
but, cool. we both agree. there is good potential for value right here and now.
maybe next time i’ll get the bat signal telegraphed to me when you buy… i feel like the crooks almost got away while I sat by my window gazing upward…but alas…no bat signal!
must be this damn…stupid…orange plastic…ring… argh…
Thanks for the post sean…i’ll see what I can help ya with
0.08% risk means that if the trade hits my stop loss… I will lose 0.08% of my balance. on a 1K account…0.08% is eighty cents. SO…this is a very tiny risk amount. My normal risk is 0.5% to 1% per trade in my primary acct.
I am increasing because I have a comfortable cushion below me now that will allow me to risk a bit more, without much risk of going below my starting balance. I HATE losing money… so I make sure that for this… I am virtually guaranteed to have at least 1K in it forever…no matter how bad I do.
for more info on how i draw sup/dem zones… read through my other thread (the one with the vids) I have some posts in their of how i determine them.
if your new strat has to do with sup/dem zones… post it up over there in my mentorship thread. if not…you can find my contact info in my profile I believe…check there
I used to do some backtesting. all manual. i’m no good with computers or technology.
Ya. never been to that blog. but it’s cool glad to see someone do something like this out there in cyberspace.
As for acct info…thanks for the heads up However…that is an account I don’t actually have any connection with, nor is their any money in it. Closed it years ago. just use the free charts i get
But…maybe i should consider this for the future as well. Thanks
However…that is an account I don’t actually have any connection with, nor is their any money in it. Closed it years ago. just use the free charts i get