looks very interesting but i dont understand jet. maybe we make a season for it?
Sure no problem. Saturday most likely.
Thanks for the info Jan, nice clear explanations…a few questions which I think will help answer a lot:
- Not using TmaSlopeTrue anymore? Works like Awesome O with more info.
- I see you trading news setups as far out as 6 hours after news, what helps you decide if there’s still another one left to play?
- Stoch full swing means it has touched both OB(overbought=#80) and OS(oversold=#20)?
- How are you exiting…just taking 20 pips per trade? Different # of pips per time frame?
- Are you setting Stop loss still at last high/low? After spike that could be hundreds of pips.
- Do you find one time frame more consistent than others…or you get 100% winners?
Thanks again
FYI…even with my bad entry on GJ if I had just moved my stop loss back to 160 pips (based on 1 hour timeframe) I would have banked as much as 50 pips.
Also, if I would have stuck with AJ for another hour I would not have had that big loss…if I kept it till this afternoon I would have made profit on all positions.
The reason I am saying this is because I am losing sight of some of the most important steps in Jan’s system and I am paying the price. If you are with the trend/breakout and fundamentally/technically nothing has changed then you need to stick with it until your trade becomes profitable. Plus, you have to use the higher SL’s based on last high/low even if it is 4 to 1 on risk/reward ratio, just use smaller lots to compensate.
I knew these things, but burned myself today twice by being skittish. I would have been sitting at 40% increase to my account in 7 days if I wouldn’t have dropped the ball.
Oh, and make sure you get some sleep, trading for 28 hours straight doesn’t help.
Thanks for the news trading document Jan! Along with LaCamus, I’m curious to know when you decide to exit. Also, how soon after news is released do you usually find yourself entering trades?
i guess the exit strategy is the same as it is on the current pdf.
Jan thanks for the image. in the pdf avoit saving the images as jpg because it blurs the text. save it as png or gif and then add the images on the pdf (u can convert the images all together also with batch image processors 15 Useful Batch Image Processors | Smashing Magazine)
GBPCAD head and shoulders worth trading? http://snag.gy/BbjQG.jpg
This is why I didn’t want to call what I was doing a “system”…
Just had my biggest loss to date, I had been nursing a “big” short on AJ for a while, the price action was zig zagging and I thought it would come back so I decided to set the SL big and wait this one out…I had to close it because on the next peak I would have been margined out. That one was for about 25% of my account. I’m back to about 7% less then what I had last Sunday when I started back.
I said I would be honest, well it’s back to the drawing board.
UPDATE
within 65 minutes of closing those 2 trades I held for over 11 hours the price action never even came close to the peak that almost margined me out and then dropped within 3 pips of my 2nd entry…forex definitely isn’t for the meek.
UPDATE 2
Within 35 minutes of the last update price action went through what would have been my take profit for both…of course it did.
That is 3 times in the same day, that I closed sets of trades (2 sets were held for an average of 12 hours, last night and this morning) that then moved (within 2 hours) through their original take profit mark…all which took a week’s worth of good profit (plus some) leaving me with a 27% draw down. Would have at least kept me guessing if I was right in closing just 1… unbelievable! What a valuable and expensive lesson…I even (after doing this twice) write a post telling others to let their trades play out, and then, within 4 hours, I do it again! You couldn’t make stuff like this up, geez.
LaCamus in a situation like that , i would have closed 1/4 of the position and see what happens next. If i need to close another 1/4 i would , waiting for the turn around. I have lived what happened to you and it worked for me. Naturally it does not mean that is going to work all the time because we do not allow our self to be in that situation in the future.How ever if one does that and it works at list you will save a part of the trade.
See the updates…you’re going to laugh.
What is kijun slippage? Is it a condition where price cross the kijun line.enter the kumo.bounce back within the kumo.while in the mean time kijun line dont even have chance to cross the kumo n slip?
1.Actually TMA slope is more precise yes, its up to traders to decide which one to use. I personally dont use AO or TMA at all almost never but i know it can be usefull for many newbies.
2.Yep its trading the trend it doesnt matter if its 6 hours later, but the point is that that is somehow maximum about 10 hours is usually when all good bounces are gone and its not under news trading part anymore. Remember that best bounce is always first one that comes after news as its usually result of profit taking of those that were in right side and not selling against news.
3.Yes it doesnt have to precisly touch just its important that it makes some decent swing.
4.Price action usually pinbars, watching strenght of AO on m1 or m5 helps too, basically those are mostly scalp so as you said targets are small.
5.I dont actually use SL here, i just exit if price goes bellow kijun and kijun makes knee, but if that happens and h1 or h4 stoch gets OB OS on my way i would still stay in trade. It works out usually.
6.Its 90% winners, its best to trade M5, M15 and M30 on news trading, M5 will produce most entries, but the further price goes away from news spike the more careful trader has to be entering on M5 stocastic momentum becouse the further you get the more likely that you will get loss trade. But first 2 swings are always best on M5 becouse they do NOT appear usually on M15 or M30 due to too weak momentum on bounce.
[B]WRONG IDEAS ABOUT CLOSING A TRADE[/B]
let me tell you how I think about closing a trade.
If you are at -20 pips and you believe you cash in your loss if you close the trade you are wrong! Because it is already cashed in, [B]look at your EQUITY, dont look at your balance[/B].
So what does it you cost if you close a trade?
20 pips ? NO
a hundred bucks? NO
It cost you ONE SPREAD !!
Yes because for 1 spread you can re-enter the trade at any time as soon the trend resumes.
my head and shoulder went south Trade Detail | MeetPips.com
i guess i should stick to the pairs jan suggested 
CDrosos that HandS is nice, too bad it was only broken by fake breakout. It was expected though becouse GBP pairs are in bullish phase.
Vicaas hows your Gold trade going, if i counted right you should be 500 pips in profit if you havent exited.
which tf i should look to find the phase of a pair? 1D? i should always check for the trend and never go againts it?
It depends. If you trade bounces then yes you should be intrend of higher tf, if you trade breakouts then no you dont need to be in pair of higher tf trend.
Europe Considers Wholesale Savings Confiscation, Enforced Redistribution | Zero Hedge
And people were questioning my prediction of possible ECB rate cut…sadly i was even more right than i expected. There is one difference between EU and USA in ponzi limits though, when EU will get pressed enough on citizens it will collapse.
when we trade the patterns of your system like h&S wedge etc should i look on higher tf for overall trend?
HandS is reversal pattern usually
look school here
Chart Patterns Schmatterns | Important Chart Patterns | Middle School
CDrosos like Bernardo said its reversal pattern, on reversal pattern you dont look any other TF, reversal can happen right on TF where reversal pattern is. If you see reversal pattern such as wedge or HandS then you dont need to follow trend.
Almost finished for today 95 pips closed profits, holding -8 on EU long and -3 GJ long. 15% acc increase similar to yesterday, all bounce trades today aswell.
Had alert indie finished its working well but it certainly needs filters before it becomes normal for use. At moment trading with it sounds like that for whole trading day:
Airplane Sounds - Warning Sound - YouTube
Need to add trend filters and it should be ok, also planing some ichi alerts to add in. Should be all ready for release next week.
Also for next week keep adding gold longs on bounces from m5 or m15, no sign of short sellers at moment so this could go straight up if it stays that way.