FxFennec candle after pinbar (in your case bullish pinbar at top) has to be closing bellow pinbars wick. So next candle after pinbar should be closed bellow its wick to be confirmed bearish signal.
Ok so if i understand it right this would be a good bearish signal ?
edit: bearish not bullish sorry !
there is notable volume at lows. maybe another confirmation that EU is bullish…
Ye correct FxFennec your picture example shows correct bearish signal.
As for EU, there is one thing about how volume is from my view complimenting analysis for future or possible direction. If you would want to take bullish view right now your first 4 circles should be actually oposite signal from bullish signal, becouse there was significant buying due to obvious reasons becouse many scalpers come and try to trade range proping price back up into range high, but many of those traders were actually cleared out. Which means that by time we hit 4th circle there is much less buyers in market giving you not strong bullish signal. 4th circle already represents new buyers which are not short term, those are H4 support buyers which made enough power to create bump on upside. It was all ofcourse expected due to daily chart structure of PA which is clear that some support should be given at that candle down.
Tomorrow will be decision day for EU most likely, decent move down will be bearish and attempt to 1.38 will be canceled. Push on up side has to be significant at least 50-70% of todays daily candle. I would much rather preffer down side to get ahead for interest rate cut, but analysis for now is still nothing else but upside.
Thank you Jan, for your explanation. My previous analysis on EU was incomplete; as i said before the two thing behind the PVSRA is to spot where is the volume rising regardless the price zone. Is it increasing at the tops or at the bottoms… then observe if the volume rises above or below S/R areas such as historical S/R zones, whole numbers (1.5200), half numbers (1.5250) or quarter numbers (1.5225-1.5275).
“The premise behind the analysis is that those entities that move prices have
established habits. When the price moving entities are bulls they like to move prices
below key S&R to do their buying. When they are bears they like to move prices above
key S&R to do their selling. So, we can determine if the price moving entities are bulls
or bears by finding out where (above or below key S&R) they are doing most of their
trading. Once we determine the bull/bear status of the price moving entities, we can
analyze futher to see if they are in a “position building” mode, or if they are in a “run for
profits” mode. It is the “run for profits” mode that we want to trade.
Bulls can repeatedly move prices down for buying (position building) before they start
moving prices up for profit, but even during their run up for profits they can repeatedly
pull prices back down to add more longs (trading opportunity). Bears can repeatedly
move prices up for selling (position building) before they start moving prices down for
profits, but even during their run down for profits they can repeatedly pull prices back
up to add more shorts (trading opportunity). We can determine if these entities are bulls
or bears, but we cannot know when they will finish position building and turn prices in
the profit making direction. To avoid getting trapped in a prolonged position building
phase by these entities, it is best to wait for a trading opportunity in the run for profit
phase instead” Introduction_to_PVSRA.pdf (320 KB)
i’m still learning & i don’t pretend being a master on this. the author said that this method needs a lot of practise and i’m still practicing. the thread talking about this analysis is the most famous in FF and its still active since 2008 with something like 67,000 posts (that’s strange that no one here heard about it). PVSRA is used with another system similar to hybrid system to confirm entries and exits and can be used with Hybrid as well. i’m bringing this here cause the hybrid thread and Jan helped me a lot so i just wanted to contribute…
Shorting AJ here, got in a little late, looking to enter 2nd position, waiting on stochastic confirmation
H4 Head/shoulders
H1 head and shoulders (double!):
Kijun slip M15:
I noticed that pattern forming on H4 AUD/JPY as well, and thought it looked a little weird. Is it a valid head and shoulders when one of the shoulders is as high as the head?
Doubt, doubt, and more doubt…Lost all 8 trades this morning in spectacular fashion again (-143 pips), ahead 2 steps then back 3. My analysis was wrong on EJ and I was too late/early on AJ. Here is a perfect example of the classic blunder (get chased out of short by Market Movers then quickly place long in other direction only to realize you sold & bought at the absolute peak: (one day I hope to post a win as spectacular as this loss)
Make that 195 pips lost, 10 losers.
Ok LaCamus i can see you have nicely placed SL and TP, so basically you closed the trade before SL was hit, which you can see its cleary breaking system rules and doing that you will never be profitable at the end. Closing 3 pips winners and closing possible profitable trades if they go 5 pips into DD will never in the end provide any system profitable. Please stick to rules. However i can see that if you would follow M5 you would get bullish breakout, so in this case you could actually enter long here, but still keeping short:
Screenshot by Lightshot
Now the ****ty thing is H4 candles on different brokers, differences between your and my charts are massive. Meanwhile on your entry i got nicely bearish signal that HandS should most likely get broken due to previous support taken out whch is nicely seen by PA signal.
Screenshot by Lightshot
Your entry on AJ was actually totaly OK, you have entered and done analysis all as it should have been. Strong candle breach of H1 HandS should give confirmation that we should also make strong pressure on H4. FBO would be very very unlikely becouse selling was that strong. All you could do is actually add onto position once price retraces for stocastic bump trade and have by now two shorts open.
Thanks for posting pictures so that it can help other traders to clarify situation.
FxFennec i did heard of PVSRA half year ago, volume never proved good for me and my trading, becouse when i was developing systems i always stick to rules of frequent signals which means that if i want anything besides PA on my chart indicator has to give frequent signals to notify me on trend bumps or counter trend reversals. Secondly i wanted clear picture who is in market just by glancing on chart, with volume its usually quite hard to tell who really controls the move. And third most of all in 95% it never gave any additional signal that i couldnt expect or trade simply by just looking PA or Ichimoku. I do agree however that there are rare signals for spoting complete tops and bottoms with it but simple pinbar break on trend is just easier to spot and define where you know straight away who and what has happened.
That is why i was never caught on volume itself.
HandS failed, most likely up now.
Screenshot by Lightshot
This is alternative view to GA, if daily GU close is bellow we go down on both of them.
Screenshot by Lightshot
I am reading now at page 30 on the pdf of PVSRA and still I have no clou if I look at charts to give me an edge. If MMs are bulls and drive the price down to buy more… So do I go short because they drive down the price or do I go long because they are bulls? But they can hold position over 1000 pips and I cant.
Dammmmm! I did it again…I got in on m15 stoch and within minutes am sitting at -44 and -31 looking to hit sl within 10 pips
I am losing my mind, I am a human pivot point indicator.
10 minutes to candle close. then we will know…
AJ h1
all of those lost trades was happen today?
yes on aj and ej…multiple positions
if i would have left them alone I would be up 30 on AJ and 40 on EJ