Quitting Forex is the sign of frustration and Forex requires patience so I would say don’t lose your hope rather stay stuck with the market because the market has many things to give you.
One thing I scared about 4H timeframe is that, if direction is wrong, then lose big profit too, I don’t know what to do to prevent big loss?!
Thank you for detailed explanation. I really don’t know how to read economic calendar and big events, BUY or SELL when these events come I don’t know too?!
Like the crisis you described about, like US election, middle east crisis, China and US war and BRICS(China and other countries, dedollarization), I know these events well, but I have no idea BUY or SELL? When these events come…which graphs are affected? EUR/USD? Other graph?
I hope you can explain a little bit about these…
Also tell me how to practice on economic calendar or events and graphs? There is no answer on internet…
I would say it’s true, if as a beginner if I’m not sure, maybe stay away is best thing…
If stay away from trading, usually it’s few month or even year? How long is it?
I have another question about today’s EUR/USD graph.
The mark I put is the reversal of the graph…
What is this reversal name?(look like triangle)
I searched, I thought it will continue to go bearish, I don’t know why it goes reversal to bullish?
(I got stopped out from here, today I get some profit, but Monday and Tuesday I lose some profit, so no profit so far on demo lol)
PS: I found something really suspicious about my husband, I really pissed off, but I will further investigate…maybe moment of truth…I feel my misfortune as usual
Please refer to the graph image.
Also, why does graph goes up and now come back to the same point again? Many times graph do like this, and I’m confused, don’t know BUY or SELL? Or maybe stop bidding when like this? Bid later?
Also usually everyday around 2AM to morning(I’m in Asia), graphs are choppy too, not bid is best?
Also the signal app always not give correct signals, I don’t know why? Sometimes correct, sometimes incorrect? Sometimes confusing, have both buy and sell according to different time frames?
To be able to interpret economic calendar completely, we should fully understand macro economic. From macro economic, we know country’s condition. Comparing one country to others, we will know where the direction is.
You need to differentiate events into qualitative and quantitative news. Learn the quantitative news first. Quantitative means it has number, PMI for example. Qualitative has no number, such as FOMC meeting.
Base on macro economic, there are elements of workforce, household, consumption, commodity, corporations, government or policy, foreign trades, financial market, etc.
You have to summarize these information to know country’s condition. Compare one to another country, you will know which currency is stronger. For example you compare European Union to US, you will know the direction of EURUSD.
Honestly it’s not easy. For example the decline of unemployment will be claimed as good for a country. But it can be a bad thing when inflation rate is high. So we need to know how fundamental data works.
Normally, when an event is about to be happened, the price movement will get slowed. Once it’s announced, it will move the market. If you skillful, you can put position before or during the event. But for beginner, it’s better to find a strategic position after price is stabilized. We make a position just to follow the remaining momentum.
The big event momentum, usually will last around 1-2 weeks. For example, during crisis in Crimea, it was last for almost 2 weeks. But usually after few days, we usually can see good pattern to trade. So no need to wait for long. Once you can see good structure, we can start to trade.
About chart, triangle is not reversal pattern. I disagree with this concept. Triangle tells market is indecisive, waiting for something. It can up or down after. Just wait you see Higher High, Higher Low or Lower Low, Lower High. This will give confirmation where market will move.
Don’t use M1 to analyze market. M1 is used to tuned up our entry position. It’s not beginner friendly. You need to identify market structure, it will filter out your doubts. Look for SMC or Price Action.
Dont trade asian session. Generally, EURUSD moves best during European and New York Session. Most trader use Asian session as trading baseline. You can learn this from ICT. I don’t say ICT is good, but can be learnt as knowledge base.
Lower TF will have more noises. If your don’t know market structure well, a lot of traps will catch you
Thank you for long detailed explanation, I really appreciate your information.
If just 1,2 weeks I think just avoid trading and trade after 2 weeks like catastrophic events.
I thought if many month or even year, then it’s too long to wait haha.
I guess what you’re saying is true, always 1 minutes chart too much noises, even double top still goes up, not really good for analyze the chart. H4 chart I scared I bid wrong direction then lose big money too. It’s hard to find a good time frame…
the overall direction is still confusing for me, sometimes I’m wrong, sometimes I’m correct…
After your advice, I feel like my trading is better than before, thanks.
Glad to know. I wish for your success in trading. Nothing is impossible. Through hard work, everything will show result. There are many good and bad things in the market, always be careful and calm.
Absolutely, that’s the spirit! Success often comes from perseverance and self-reliance. It’s all about believing in yourself and keeping at it, no matter the setbacks. Best of luck to you—it’s clear you’re on the right track to achieving your goals!
Thank you everyone for your support and encouragement, I’m still beginner and still losing on demo, but I hope it will get better!!
I will keep doing trading no matter what will happens in future!!
If I have something I will definitely ask here!!
Dear TYGMedia,
Thank you for your advice…
Truly appreciate your encouragement
Have a nice day…
Same here…High blood pressure, Anxiety, are just a small part of the problems. Sometimes, I wonder if trading is really worth it since it can really affect your health (in a bad way, if loss )…
What do you think about Fed cut rate? What do you think I should prepare for this big event besides capital to trade? so that, I would not miss the opportunity…
Hi @Love88 , What I see, Fed will cut rate once for this year. They will wait until the inflation slowdown a bit. It’s risky to cut rate, as productivity and manufacture will be boosted and finally deepen the inflation. Inflation still needs time to return back normal.
I still need to monitor PMI, CPI, NFP to know the economic condition. Base on this knowledge, for example if I trade GBPUSD, I will look for long after correction for medium term. From 4H, we can see obviously it’s uptrend.
But when price has moved to high, I will wait, look for breakout or rejection then break the support.
Everything happens will alter my view to market.
Trading in forex we need to think fast and many plan to mitigate the next move.
Woow, You are good…same with @ProfesorPips @Torchwave (They are brilliant as well)…
I am training my eyes. Although I am still confuse looking at the XAUUSD chart. Its bullish, but some big bearish candle at daily chart makes me wonder if the reversal is coming.
Thank you for your kind reply…
Hi @Love88, you will one day as long as you keep trying.
For XAUUSD, I still waiting to buy. Base on H4 chart, there is small break (not strong).
So I will wait this corrective wave to end and look at M1 for entry signal.
By using M1, I can minimize my risk to 5 pips to get 100-150 pips profit. If you are patient enough, try M5 or M15 will be easier.
Dear @TYGMedia,
Another dumb questions. I hope you don’t mind…
How do you know if the corrective wave has ended? based on OB?
Based on your chart, this could go lower. am I right?
You are using SMC method to look for any bounce…
He @Love88, ask as many as you like. I will be happy to answer them
I’m using Price Action ( PA ) actually. Price Action also tells something like Order Block, which is not famous. It’s almost identical to SMC, but SMC focus on the concept of imbalance. PA identifies range to range in lower time frame. If it’s too complicated, refers to OB in SMC will be easier.
Base on PA, after a momentum wave there will be correction wave. It’s not always, but if it’s identified, price movement will be easier to mitigate. This is the key, we are not trying to predict but mitigate next move. This is one of the patterns we look in trading base on Technical Analysis.
For XAU, my profile fits in H4 and D1 chart. That’s why my analysis will be based on these timeframes. Base on these timeframes I got there is breakout last H, but there is no HL yet. So this is the missing part.
Most likely it will form another HL to complete a set of HH, HL to be qualified as an uptrend from previous range. In short market is forming a reversal pattern. Base on my trading stats the winning rate for this pattern is around 70%. It’s not like trend continuation will have 80-95% winning rate base on its repetition number.
By having this data, I will trade with smaller volume. I know this is not a high winning rate but its attempting.
All this knowledge I got from years of backtesting. Even you don’t use PA or SMC you can see it from indicators such as MACD, Stochastic, RSI, RMI, RVI, etc. In within these areas, those indicators will show price overbought. Once you see there is divergence pattern on those indicators, it will be reversal signal.
The short answer for your question, I don’t know for sure since I’m not a fortune-teller. I don’t have what so called intuition or angelic whisperer . I only do mitigation base on statistic number and the logic of PA.
To identify when the corrective wave is end, the safest way will be:
Since corrective wave is a downtrend, you look for reversal on lower TF.
- As PA, look for HH/HL. This will be more conservative.
- As for SMC, you can identify liquidity sweep after inducement (more aggressive).
- As ICT, look for Europe Session, when it’s ranging, NY session will be a reversal. Most of the time it will be too late, but still can have few pips.
Note: I will combine also with latest fundamental news. For example now, we are waiting for the fed to cut rate. Market is waiting, so sideways market is expected. Current XAU is still sideways on higher TF (D1). There is enough room to make small bullish trend in current sideways market.
Dear @TYGMedia,
Thank you for your explanation. I don’t know, how many years it takes to be like you…
About stochastic, if H4 is oversold & going up - D1 is overbought & going down, W1 is in the middle going up. How do you interpret this?
Have a lovely day…
Hi @Love88, All depends on us. You need to do a lot backtest or trade in live account to know more. If you stop, your skill will get rusted.
About stochastic, first we know stochastic is momentum based indicator. The common parameters is (5, 3, 3). It means the indicator will only look for the latest 5 candle. The signal line will be the average within this 5 candle. By this definition stochastic will tell us where the price within a range. On higher TF, stochastic won’t help much. It tells us trend only by looking at the stochastic’s line and signal’s line.
Stochastic H4 tells 33, D1 tells 71 and W1 tells 71.
Look at H4, for swing trader, it will be good entry time. But for shorter period trader, it wont be strategic to use.
Combine those information we only know that XAU is having a strong uptrend. But be careful D1 and W1 also tell it’s almost peak (overbought), so there will be potential reversal. Even there are potential reversal, the distance in pips still good enough to get few pips in lower time frame. For example H1 and bellow. So it’s good to find a long position, but watch carefully for resistance level on D1 and W1.
On H4, please observe there are many “fake” oversold signals. Meaning even the stochastic had been oversold, the price was still moving down. So, look for reversal pattern in oscillator. If you can identify a reversal pattern in oscillator, that means price is about to reverse. On XAU H4, divergence / convergence in stochastic has 88% winning rate base on my trading stats. So it’s a high probability setup. Please look at the screenshot bellow
In SMC, it is known as inducement, but it has been introduced long long time ago by the invention of oscillator and price action with its wave theory.
Dear @TYGMedia,
Highly appreciate your kindness and effort and hope you will be paid back by having a good health, wealth and much happiness in future. (I believe in karma).
I cant thank you enough for this lesson.