Hi, I need help, I lost the trade, and I want to know what I did wrong, please 
I attached a screenshot
Nothing wrong with it. Odds of that trade losing is about 75%. Youâll need a larger sample set to analyze the margin of profit that deviates from the expected outcome. In other words, youâll never win more than 50% of 3:1 trades. 25-30% on 3:1 trades would be amazing.
Babypips can only show horrible Risk Management as this example from them shows how easy it is to make money from 3R trades. A 3R trader with a 50% win rate is a millionaire in no time. Not going to happen.
but the price came down?
It reacted to the bullish order block
I dont´t understand
I see the Change of Character of the price action from bearish to bullish so I donât think you were wrong to want a long entry from that point onwards. Taking it immediately is not wrong but it is aggressive, the probability of a false move is higher than waiting for supporting price action as confirmation, for example a pull-back with a new low, but higher than the mid-morning low between 0600 and 1200. That trade could still be a loser but a losing trade does not automatially mean you made a mistake.
For better understanding of your strategy, what is the reason for putting your stop-loss where you put it?
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Cause the price went above the 200 ema, so I thought it would go to the supply zone
I still don´t understand what you mean âimmediatelyâ
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The classic location for a stop-loss on a long position would be just a little below a support level identifed by price, not a MA. Some people do use MAâs for this but their probability of being right is lower, especially on a micro-scale like intra-day.
By immediately I mean you entered by clicking the âBuyâ button and this opened the trade, live, in real-time. but you donât have to do this - there is the option of setting a Buy order, either above or below where price is at this instant: if price reaches the order level, this can form a confirmation of your analysisis of what price is going to do next. If price does not reach the order level, your analysis can be re-drafted, but it will have cost you nothing.
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a buy stop above the 200 ema?
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I didn´t have a support level, it was just the two bars that stopped on the demand zone
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And the price closed above the 200 ema, my buy stop would have been activated
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Before taking trades on such a short term time frame, I usually look at the larger timeframes. For me itâs not enough to just use a longer period moving average.
You basically went long on the 15 min chart, while the 4H and daily charts look like the current move is topping and looking to make a pull back. The 4 hour chart especially shows a topping, rolling over action, see chart below.
Iâd expect bearish momentum over the coming days / weeks.
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Each tick is independent of itself. Thereâs no way to forecast bullish order flow based on historical prices. Upon buying, youâre relying on someone or thousands of someone to buy after you at worse and worse prices to move price towards your intended direction. Those traders did not show up, or were met with greater selling demand, causing price to fall. It is what it is.
Profiting from single-entry directional trading 3:1 is extremely difficult. I have not seen it accomplished in the long run.
There will always be losing trades even when everything aligns for a text-book trade. That shouldnât deter you from taking the same setup when it occurs. In this case, what you labelled a CHOCH is not actually one. The last line of defense for the bears that needed to be breached to confirm a bullish wave was above what you labelled CHOCH. This would mean momentum was still bearish when you bought.
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Can you please send a photo explaining detailed?
I dont understand
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Here is an illustration of what I mean.
Here is the edited image of your chart illustrating the same thing.
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Welcome to Babypips!
Using the USDJPY H1 of the same section of price.
The first thing I noticed was the CHoCH, but Torchwave took care of that.
The other things that I noticed were:
The impulsive wave took 55 hours to travel from the low to the high but only 14 hours to retrace over 62%. The price action reflects this with many small candles on the way up and larger candles by comparison on the way down. The retracement also forms at a much steeper and aggressive angle than the impulsive wave going up.
You were also buying into an unmitigated Supply zone, while Demand had not fully regained control, so a reaction is to be expected.
If you put a lower indicator like Stochastic on, it will show as being overbought at your point of entry.
Keep in mind you can get everything right in your analysis and the market will still take your money. You canât control the market anymore than Siegfried and Roy (Rest In Peace) could ultimately control tigers. You can only limit your exposure to risk.
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Is the stochastic with deffault settings ?
And how can I limit my risk ?
Yes itâs the default setting, I searched on Tradingview and added it without touching the settings.
You can limit risk by making sure that you arenât buying alone. Unfortunately for this trade, the false CHoCH gave you the wrong impression that the bulls were back in control.
You can also place your stop loss under a protected low based on market structure as opposed to basing it on pips. This might make the SL larger and might have endured drawdown based on your entry, but it would have been in profit up to the supply zone.
Your TP is on the other side of a supply zone. You usually want your TP easy to reach and your SL at the point where the setup would no longer be valid.
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It will be hard to give feedback as your system is unique and you have your way of looking at the market.
For me,you bought hoping for a break above a potential double top and it failed. Looking at the previous price action it was looking like it might turn into a trading range so I would have been cautious.
Also, SL would go for me below the recent low rather than where you put it. Simply because you can get a retest of the low taking you out.
No matter what you do, you will lose trades. Question is whether you are going to make more on the wins than when you lose so that you can make money in the long run.
Again, your trade fits your system. You will have to look at your trades over a larger amount of data and analyze them. The data will teach you more than what other people will say.
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This is part of my old system ( about 60 - 65 percent strike rate ) . The problem here is you have 4 red candles on a short term chart . 15 minutes . Also gold is currently correlated to usd jpy , and gold is bearish atm , only those not in the know are buying gold . Usd jpy and gold will crash together to oblivion soon enough
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What do you mean 4 red candles? Sorry