Here is the current picture. What we should expect to see is rising prices to 1.4291
We are coming off the bottom, and as you can see in the picture, the 1m is already breaking through the Kumo.
The 1.4291 number is being derived by the KS line (now the gray line - changed the color from blue to gray). I need to point out this is a target , not a certainty.
How I am trading this -
Short term buys (really a hedge ) to 1.4291
Long term sell - down to 1.3069.
Over the next few posts I make for the Eur/Usd, you will see various buys and sells on the same charts…hopefully what I just said will make sense when you see those going forward.
In this picture, you can see that the uptrend has been going on for some time. The 1 minute chart is stalling, so this might be signaling the end of today’s uptrend for now.
Long term is still intact - price should continue to 1.1730 over the next few weeks.
AL
If you got a chance to watch the link then you know that the very well spoken gentleman is Chris Capre. He has a very helpful website which he let’s you know about after every one of his webinars with a shameless plug. However, there’s a flotilla of info to gleen from his expertise. He even offers an individual mentoring program. I’m thinking…not such a bad idea. Hey, beats working at Home Depot, no?
Anyway, he suggested I trade E/U because it’s smoother than U/C.
Didj.
I don’t necessarily agree with that last statement - I am finding that the more pairs I look at , the more it validates the IKH method. Some pairs a quite a bit more volital (GBPJPY) perhaps, but it doesn’t mean IKH cannot work on them. If your more accustomed to U/C, then you should trade it.
I would recommend you open a 1H chart on a few pairs and periodically (every couple of hours) look at them. You will likely come to the same conclusion , what your trading is basically irrelevant.
I figured you would want to see how I am progressing
I have to admit, a very large chuck of the gains came from the market turbulence on Monday. I lost part of that on the USDJPY when I didn’t remove the position. Assuming I continue on this pace, I should double my account within the next 24 hrs.
Unfortunately, I apparently cannot post .htm files (the default for MT4) yet.
Thanks for that support. I usually try to trade the 1 H and as you’ve done made some piles of virtual money the last few days only to give two thirds of it back. We have very similar trading methods and we should be able to help each other out. One thing that happens to me is that I get stopped out way too many times. I know some of the reasons. One huge reason is that I have to walk away from trades during NY session, having made a limit order which gets filled but then retraces and gets stopped out. I’ve heard that most traders “babysit” their trades. I don’t have that luxury right now beacuse I can’t sit at my desk all day. Chris Capre has a method he uses for long trades: 20 EMA, 50 EMA on a Daily chart. Watch crossover and @ close take trades.
Thoughts?
I have to find an EA that will allow that to be tested - I think there is one already in MT4 set up for MA crossovers , I just haven’t had time to look.
IMO - this is how I am going to start trading this - trading small, and trading the largest time frame I can. I realize this goes against what everyone is trying to do on the other threads, but my thought on this is : at last this way, I can last, and I don’t need worry about being stopped out.
While I can see there is huge potential for learning how to counter trade with IKH, its certainly less of a headache if you just stick to the trend on the largest TF, and let it ride.
I should be dancing in the streets given that every prognosis is coming to fruition…but guess what?
I got stopped out on Thursday due to lack of funds when the market did its counter trend…only to see that that we are indeed climbing to 1.17 on USDCHF and falling to 1.30 for the EURUSD.
No question - the entire key is - small positions, and just let it ride until IKH tells you its time to reverse.
As a side note - I have replenished my Oanda account, and am now trading this with some $$$.
I will continue posting charts of IKH using MT4 . I’ll post these tonight when I will have more time.
Al,
I feel your pain my man. Been there, done that!
Today was one of those days where virtually nothing, except the economy, could go wrong. This is where all those failed trades come as a lesson learned. This is where all the hard work comes to fruition. But let’s remember we could loose it all in a nanosecond. So, I’m curbing my enthusiasm. Just like Larry David.
Here’s a snapshot of this month.
Here is the current chart set up for USDCHF - I see short term Topping - this would be a good time to pull some profits off the table. Look for a drop of approx 100 pips
I’ve just started my own trading blog, using the IKH. It’s really just my trading journal to ensure I’m sticking to my money management rules and not rushing in to trades.
I’ve just gone long on the EURCAD, so you’ll be joining the story from there.
Hey Al, thanks for the comment - you must be watching this thread like a hawk to have replied so quick!
I’m using a demo with the IKH at the moment, so happy to take some losses to enhance my learning. It’s the most intuitive system I’ve found so far though, it really does make the price action a more visible beast!
Hey Cordy,
Say, how come you didn’t pull the trigger on the euro/cad at about the 1.5045 level when it just pops out of the cloud? I’m just learning myself to use the IKH. Can you elaborate? I find it helpful to know where people’s heads are when they take a trade. THanks.
D
Hey AL,
Thanks for sticking it out in this thread. I like to read your thoughts. Looks like USD/CHF has reached a double bottom temporarily and I expect a rise to the upside. I traded EUR/JPY today with some interesting results. It’s like MR. Toads wild ride! So far short on USD/JPY and GBP/USD.
I didn’t enter the trade until the price was already above the cloud, as was waiting for a span reversal confirmation (which did come). The price has reached a holding level right now, with the Kijun Sen nice and flat after a small downtrend - hopefully signaling a stall in the price decline and the start of another up trend.
Once the Kumo reaches my entry point I’ll reset my stop to a break even point, and then follow the Kumo upwards with my stop to lock in profits.
I may have done you a disservice yesterday saying that the it appeared to be topping out at 1.5250 on your blog - the way I tend to trade IKH is once price breaks out of the Kumo, it wants to run to the previous Kumo roll - which in your case was 1.5250. What I didn't take into account was that the 4H chart was close enough to actually start its entry into the Kumo, thus continuing the trend.
Glad it worked out for you just the same
Diji,
I agree w/ you on the double bottom for USDCHF - I'm currently monitoring the EURUSD, and from an IKH standpoint, waiting to reshort it.
Gentlemen - as a side note, I have been actively reading and trading using TheRumpledOne’s method over at the 'Never Lose Again ’ thread as of last night…the results are very promising. I am not going to abandon the IKH thread, as we have seen, this is proven :).
