GOLD recently traded lower and breached an important support level of $1280. However, the $1270 level acted as a support and held the downside in the short term. The yellow metal prices consolidated for some time around the mentioned support area, and then managed to jump a bit higher to clear a short term resistance area. This break is likely to open the doors for further upside acceleration. There are a few important releases scheduled during the New York session including the CB consumer confidence, which might act as a catalyst for GOLD in the near term.
There was a major bearish trend line on the hourly chart for GOLD, which was breached recently. The yellow metal buyers also managed to clear the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the $1319 high to $1271 low, and now heading towards the 38.2% fib level. There is a chance that it might find sellers around the mentioned fib level. In that situation, it might drop back towards the broken trend line, which could act as a support moving ahead. The hourly RSI is also around the extreme levels, which means GOLD might correct a bit from the current or higher levels.
On the downside, initial support can be seen around the broken trend line at $1282, followed by the 100 hourly moving average. On the upside, initial resistance is around the 38.2% fib level. Any further upside acceleration might take GOLD towards the 50% fib level, which is just around the 200 hourly moving average.
Overall, buying dips might be considered if GOLD continues to trade above the $1280 support area in the short term.
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The US dollar surged higher recently against the Swiss franc, as the USDCHF pair traded above the 0.9150 level. The economic releases were also on the positive side. The US durable goods orders data and CB consumer confidence were the latest releases. Both the releases impressed the US dollar investors, and registered better than expected readings. The CB consumer confidence registered a reading of 92.4, up from 90.3. This lifted the US dollar across the board. The EURUSD pair also dropped heavily and traded close to the 1.3150 support level.
There is a critical bullish trend line on the hourly chart for the USDCHF pair, which could act as a catalyst for the pair in the short term. The mentioned trend line is moving along with the 100 hourly moving average, so it increases the importance of the trend line. Currently, the pair is heading towards the highlighted trend line, which is just around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 0.9122 low to 0.9185 high. So, there is a chance that the pair might find buyers around the 0.9160-55 levels. Only a break and close below the 100 moving average might change the trend and increase the chances of a major correction.
On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the last high of 0.9185. If the US dollar sellers fail to defend the mentioned level, then a run towards the next hurdle of 0.9200-10 is possible in the short term.
Overall, buying dips looks like a good option if the pair continues to trade above the 100 moving average.
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The Euro has declined heavily against most major currencies during the last several days, including against the Japanese yen. The EURJPY pair recently traded towards the 136.40 support area where the Euro buyers managed to take the pair higher. The pair is now trading a touch higher during this week. There were a few important economic releases lined up during the London session, including the German GDP data. The market was expecting a 0.2% decline this time around. The outcome was in line with the expectation. The Euro was seen trading a touch higher after the release.
There are a couple of important bearish trend lines formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which are acting as a hurdle for the pair on the high side. The pair looks like consolidating as of writing, and there is a chance of a short term spike higher. However, if that happens, then the pair might find resistance around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last move lower from the 137.18 high to 136.59 low. The most important point is that the mentioned fib level is just below the 100 hourly moving average and the bearish trend line. So, there is a lot of resistance around the 136.80-90 levels. If the pair trades near the mentioned level, then it is likely to find sellers in the short term.
On the other hand, if the Euro manages to break the first bearish trend line, then a test of the next trend line is possible. On the downside, an initial support can be seen around the 136.54 level, followed by the 136.30 level.
Overall, selling rallies remain a good option in the near term until the pair is trading below the highlighted bearish trend lines.
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The New Zealand dollar struggle to hold the ground against most major currencies, including the US dollar continued recently. The NZDUSD pair traded below the 0.8300 support area this week, and now correcting higher. The market sentiment remains in the favour of sellers, and there are high chances of more downside in the coming days. The fundamentals also do not go with the New Zealand dollar, as the recent decline in the dairy prices created a lot of pressure on the New Zealand dollar buyers. On the other hand, the economics continued to improve in the US causing upside in the US dollar.
There was a critical contracting triangle formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which was breached earlier during this week. The pair traded as low as 0.8287 recently, and currently struggling to break the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.8406 high to 0.8287 low. There is a chance of a spike higher in the pair. However, there is an important confluence resistance area around the 0.8350 level. The 200 hourly moving average, 100 moving average and the 50% fib retracement level are aligned around the mentioned level. So, if the pair bounces from the current or a bit lower levels, then the 0.8350-60 resistance zone might act as a strong hurdle for the pair.
On the downside, initial support is around the 0.8300 level, followed by the last low of 0.8387. Any further loses might take the pair towards the 0.8250 support area in the short term.
Overall, selling rallies is a wise option moving ahead as long as the pair is trading below the 0.8380 level.
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The British pound was seen trading lower not only against the US dollar, but also against the Japanese yen. However, the Japanese yen also traded lower yesterday, which slowed down the fall in the GBPJPY pair, else it might have declined a lot, as the British pound fell more than 150 pips overnight against the US dollar. The GBPJPY has breached an important support level, which means there is a chance of more downside in the near term. There is no major economic release lined up during the London session in the UK, which means it is likely to trade with the market sentiment moving ahead.
There was a critical bullish trend line on the 4 hour chart of the GBPJPY pair, which was broken yesterday. This break can be seen as a bearish sign for the pair, as the pair is now trading below the 100 and 200 moving averages (4H). Currently, the pair is flirting with the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 170.4 low to 173.95 high. So, there is a chance of a short term bounce, but in that situation, the pair might find sellers around the broken support area around the 100 moving average. The 4H RSI is also around the extreme levels, which escalates the need of a correction. So, a move higher might find resistance around the 172.10-20 levels.
On the downside, initial support is around the 76.4% fib level, followed by the last swing low of 170.40. Any further losses would strongly depend on the weakness in the Japanese yen in the near term.
Overall, selling rallies is a good option moving ahead as long as the pair is trading below the 100 moving average (4H).
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The Euro was hammered during this past week not only against the US dollar, but also against the Japanese yen. The EURJPY pair traded as low as 135.80 recently, where the Euro buyers managed to hold the downside in the pair. The pair is consolidation as of writing and forming a breakout pattern in the short term. The market sentiment favours upside in the pair, as a short-term correction is due in the pair. The German trade balance data was published during the London session by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The forecast was of a surplus of 16.8B euros. However, the outcome was on the positive side, as the German foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 22.2 billion euros in July 2014.
There is a triangle forming on the 1 hour chart of the EURJPY pair, which is likely to act as a catalyst in the short term. The triangle resistance is around the 136.20 level. However, a major hurdle can be seen around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 138.27 high to 135.81 low. If the Euro buyers manage to settle above the mentioned area, then a move towards the 50% fib retracement level is possible at 137.04. The mentioned level could act as a monster resistance for the pair, as the 200 hourly moving average is sitting around the same levels. Moreover, the 100 hourly moving average is also sitting just above the 200 MA.
On the downside, support is around the last low. A break below the triangle support might ignite one more leg lower in the pair.
Overall, buying with a break above the triangle resistance is a good option as long as the pair is trading above the 135.80 area.
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The US dollar was seen correcting a bit lower against the Euro and the Swiss franc yesterday. The USDCHF pair climbed as high as 0.9379 recently and now correction lower. However, this can only be seen as a part of retracement, and we cannot judge whether the US dollar has placed a short term top against the Swiss franc. The reason for this minor correction may be a profit taking move. Moreover, the US JOLT’s job openings data was published yesterday, which missed the mark. The forecast was of 4.72M, but the outcome came in at 4.67M. Let us look at the technical charts and try to analyse where the pair is heading next.
There is a kind of a flag pattern forming on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which is acting as a hurdle for the pair on the upside. Currently, the pair is trading around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last bull leg from the 0.9176 low to 0.9379 high. It is also heading towards the 100 hourly moving average, which is right around the flag support trend line. So, if the pair moves lower and tests the mentioned support area around the 0.9310-00 levels, then the US dollar buyers are likely to appear to hold the downside in the pair. A break below the stated level could take the pair towards the 50% fib retracement level.
On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the flag resistance trend line. A break above the same might take the pair towards the last high of 0.9379, and possibly towards the 0.9400 area.
Overall, one might consider buying around the 0.9310 level if the pair manages to hold the 100 hourly moving average.
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The Euro managed to gain bids against the Japanese yen during this past week, as it traded as high as 139.18. However, the EURJPY pair opened this week on a negative note, as the pair broke an important support level, which might cause heavy downside in the pair moving ahead. The Euro buyers look like nervous, as it was also seen trading lower against the US dollar. The EURUSD pair is trading below the 1.2940 level, down from the intraday high of 1.2968. So, if the Euro sellers gain control, then it might cause more downside in the EURJPY pair in the near term.
The main reason why more downside is likely in the EURJPY pair is because it has breached an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart. Currently, the pair is heading towards the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 135.81 low to 139.18 high. However, it looks like the pair might test the 100 hourly moving average, which is siting just above the 38.2% fib retracement level. The most critical support would be around the 50% fib level, which also coincides with the 200 hourly moving average. So, if the EURJPY pair moves closer to the mentioned confluence area, then it is likely that the Euro buyers might take a stand to protect further downside in the pair.
Alternatively, if the pair bounces from the current levels, then the broken trend line might act as a resistance, followed by the previous high of 139.18.
Overall, selling rallies looks like a good option as long as the pair is trading below the last high and the hourly RSI is below the 50 mark.
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The US dollar traded lower against the Swiss franc yesterday towards the 0.9300 support area, but later managed to trade back higher. The 0.9300-10 level is proving to be very tough to break, as the US dollar sellers tried a couple of times but failed. However, the momentum is lagging and indicators starting to show signs of a short-term top. There is an important event lined up later today during the NY session in the US. The Fed interest rate decision is scheduled, which is likely to cause a lot of swing moves in the US dollar. There can be some profit taking moves ahead of the release, so one need to be very careful trading around the mentioned event.
There is a sliding channel formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which served as a support yesterday. Currently, the pair is heading towards the channel resistance trend line. The most important part is that the channel resistance is now just above the 100 and 200 moving averages. So, there is a monster resistance around the 0.9350 level. The US dollar buyers are likely to struggle around the stated level. There is a chance that the pair might fail around the current levels, and move lower towards the 0.9300 level again. In that situation, we need to see whether the pair can break the channel support area or not.
Alternatively, if the USDCHF pair breaks the channel and moves higher, then the US dollar bulls might challenge the previous high of 0.9394 again.
One might attempt a sell trade around the 0.9350 level with a very small stop and try to aim the channel support area.
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The New Zealand dollar moved lower intraday against the US dollar post the Fed interest rate decision. The NZDUSD pair below the 0.8100, and traded as low as 0.8077. Earlier during the Asian session, the New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The outcome was somehow good, as the report mentioned that the New Zealand’s GDP grew by 0.7% whereas the market was expecting an increase of 0.6%. However, the current rate is down from the previous reading of 1.0%. The NZDUSD has managed to recover some ground after the release, but it looks like that there are several hurdles on the way up for the pair.
There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which can be considered as a monster hurdle in the near term. Currently, the pair is trading around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.8229 high to 0.8077 low. There is a chance that the pair might trade close to the highlighted trend line, which also coincides with the 38.2% fib level and a previous swing level. In that situation, the New Zealand dollar is likely to struggle around the 0.8140-50 levels, and sellers are likely to appear around the mentioned levels. The hourly RSI is bouncing from the extreme levels, which might support the pair in the short term for a correction towards the resistance zone.
There is even a possibility that the pair might fail around the current levels and move lower. In that situation, today’s low around the 0.8077 level might be tested again.
Overall, selling rallies look like a great option considering the pair has breached an important support area.
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The Euro suffered a major setback against the US dollar this past week, but somehow managed to hold the ground against the Japanese yen. The main reason for this was the weakness of the Japanese yen across the board. The EURJPY pair is trading around an important level, which is likely to act as a pivot zone for the pair in the near term. The Euro zone consumer confidence will be released later today, which can cause moves in the pair. The market is not expecting a good reading this time around, and if that happens, then the Euro might come under pressure in the short term.
There is a monster trend line on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which held the downside in the pair on many occasions. Currently, the pair is trading around the mentioned trend line, and what’s more important is that the pair is right around the 50% fib level of the last leg from the 138.46 low to 141.20. Moreover, the 100 hourly simple moving average is also sitting just below the highlighted trend line. In short, the 139.80-60 holds a lot of importance in the near term for the pair, and if the Euro sellers manage to break the mentioned support area, then a move towards the 200 hourly moving average is possible.
Alternatively, there is also a chance that the pair bounces from the current area. In that situation, the pair might head back towards the last high of 141.20. The hourly RSI needs to break the 50 level if the pair has to continue trading higher.
Overall, one might attempt a sell trade with a break below the trend line and support area.
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The New Zealand dollar dived during the Asian session, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor mentioned that the current levels in the New Zealand dollar are not acceptable. He also mentioned about the intervention. His comments did not go down well with the New Zealand dollar buyers, as the NZDUSD pair fell more than 100 pips within a couple of hours. More importantly, the pair broke a critical support area around the 0.8000 level to trade close to the 0.7950 level. It looks like the pair is going to continue trading lower in the coming sessions.
There were a couple of important trend lines, which were holding the downside in the NZDUSD pair as can be seen in the chart attached. One can also notice how the trend has taken shape in the past couple of weeks. The pair is simply unstoppable, and recently broke the highlighted trend lines as well, which ignited more losses in the pair. There is a support around the 0.7920-00 area, but if the momentum is such, then it could be also breached easily. The trend is very negative and any rallies close to the broken trend lines might be seen as a selling opportunity. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.8093 high to 0.7945 low is around the 0.7980 level, which could act as a resistance moving ahead.
There is even a chance that the pair might not retrace from the current levels. In that situation, the pair could test the 0.7900 handle in the near term.
Overall, selling rallies is a great option as long as the US dollar continues to trade higher.
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The Euro had no relief against the US dollar, but it managed to gain bids against the Japanese yen. This has less to do with the Euro’s strength and more to do with the Japanese yen weakness. The EURJPY traded higher and broke an important resistance zone to challenge the 100 hourly moving average. The Spanish retail sales data was released earlier during the London session, which exceeded the market’s expectation and registered an increase of 0.4%. This might help the EURJPY pair in the short term.
There was a bearish trend line on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which was breached earlier during the London session. Moreover, the pair also broke the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 140.21 high to 138.36 low. Currently, the pair is struggling to break the 38.2% fib retracement level and 100 moving average, which is at 139.18. There is a chance that the pair might correct lower from the current levels, retest the broken area and then climb higher again. So, on the downside, the 138.80 level might play a pivotal area in the near term where the Euro buyers are likely to appear. A break below the mentioned level might take it towards the 138.40 support area.
On the upside, a break and close above the 100 moving average could take the pair towards the 200 moving average, which is right around the 61.8% fib level. So, the 139.50 level might act as a swing zone for the pair.
Overall, buying dips around the 138.80 level might be considered as long as 138.40 hold.
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The New Zealand dollar was seen trading higher against the US dollar during the Asian session. There were a few releases during the Asian session in the New Zealand and Australia, which lifted the mood if buyers. The NZDUSD pair spiked higher more than 80 pips and broke an important resistance. However, it also stalled around a critical resistance. It would be interesting to see how the New Zealand dollar behaves in the coming sessions. If the momentum continues, there is a possibility that the NZDUSD pair might spike one more time.
There is an important expanding triangle formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which acted as a hurdle during the Asian session. The pair stalled right around the triangle resistance area. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level also sits around the same level. And, this is not all, the 200 simple moving average is around the same area. So, the 0.7927 area can be considered as a monster resistance for the pair. The reaction from the mentioned area was also obvious, as the pair turned lower immediately. Let us see if the pair can manage to climb back towards the 0.7920-30 area. If it does, then sellers are going to appear again.
Alternatively, the NZDUSD pair might continue heading lower towards the 100 hourly moving average. There is a chance that the pair might find buyers around the 0.7810-00 area, which is around the triangle support zone coinciding with 100 MA.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies around the triangle resistance zone as long as it stays below 200 MA.
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The Euro struggled during this past week against most other major currencies, including the Japanese yen. However, the losses were not that much as compared to the US dollar, but the EURJPY pair broke an important support area which might encourage the Euro sellers in the short term. There was an economic release during the London session i.e. the German factory orders data was released. The market was already expecting a decline this time, but the outcome was even worse as the German factory orders declined by 5.7%. This is a lot more than the market was expecting. However, the Euro was not affected that much and was seen trading a touch higher after the release.
There was a contracting triangle formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which was broken recently. However, the follow through after the break was not convincing. There is a chance that the pair might retrace back towards the broken triangle support area, which could now act as a resistance. The 38.2% fib retracement level of the last decline from the 137.87 high to 137.03 low is also around the broken support area. So, the Euro buyers might struggle around the 137.25-35 resistance area. Only a break and close above the mentioned area would call for more gains in the short term.
On the downside, initial support is seen around the last low of 137.03. A break below could take the pair towards the 136.50 level.
Overall, one might consider selling around the mentioned resistance area as long as the pair is below the broken triangle area.
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The New Zealand dollar was one of the best performers during the Asian session, as it surged higher against the US dollar and traded above the 0.7920 level. The New Zealand electronic sales data was released by the Statistics New Zealand during the Asian session, which missed the expectation. However, the release failed to get the attention of sellers. The gain in the NZDUSD pair is mainly due to the recent FOMC meeting minutes. The pair has managed to clear an important resistance area, which might call for more gains in the near term if sentiment continues to favour USD sellers.
There was an important bearish trend line on the 1 hour chart of the NZDUSD pair, which was breached recently. The most important point is that the mentioned trend line was aligned with the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8081 high to 0.7706 low. So, the broken resistance area was crucial. The pair is trading around the 61.8% fib retracement level, which if breached would call for a run towards the 0.8000 level. The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, which is acting as a psychological barrier for buyers. There is a chance that the pair might correct lower from the current level, retest the broken resistance area and rise again.
So, on the downside initial support is around the 0.7910, followed by the 0.7880 level. Any further losses might turn the bias back to bearish. Let us see how the pair trades in the coming sessions.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the NZDUSD pair stays above the 0.7880 level.
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The Euro was seen trading higher against the Japanese yen recently. The latter one was weakened across the board during the Asian session. However, it looks like the EURJPY pair might correct lower in the short term. The German Producer price index data was released during the London session today. The outcome was a touch disappointing, as the German PPI was expected register an increase of 0.1%. However, it remained flat in September 2014, compared to the last month. There was no impact on the Euro, but there are chances that it might move lower in the coming sessions.
There is a critical ascending channel formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a support as of writing. The pair recently climbed higher towards the 137.00 level, but failed to gather momentum. The pair is now down, and trading around the channel support area. There is a possibility that it might break the same and move towards the 200 hourly moving average, which is also sitting around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 134.12 low to 137.02 high. The mentioned fib confluence area is a major support, and any break lower could spark a rally towards the 100 hourly moving average. The only bullish sign as of now is that the RSI is above the 50 level.
On the other hand, if the EURJPY pair bounces from the current levels, then a run towards the last high of 137.00 is possible in the short term.
Overall, one might consider selling with a break below the highlighted channel support area.
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The US dollar was seen trading lower against many other major currencies, including the Swiss franc. The market sentiment was recently tilted in the favour of sellers. The USDCHF pair breached an important support area, which might lead to more losses in the pair in the near term. There is an significant release lined up later today i.e. the US existing home sales data will be published. The market is expecting a 1% gain, which if misses the forecast might dent the US dollar further moving ahead. The Chinese GDP data released during the Asian session also acted as a catalyst for the US dollar.
There was a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which was broken by the US dollar sellers recently. This particular break has opened the doors for further downside acceleration in the short term. Currently, the pair is trading around the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9358 low to 0.9489 high. There is a high probability that the pair might continue heading lower if it fails to recover above the broken support area which could act as a resistance moving ahead. If the pair continues lower, then a retest of the last low of 0.9358 would be possible. We need to see how the US dollar sellers react once the pair corrects higher.
If they manage to take the pair higher again, then the next level of selling interest would be around the 100 hourly moving average.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the 100 MA.
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The US dollar performed well yesterday, and that was one of the reasons that GOLD corrected lower after setting a high of $1255. However, it is likely that the upside is not over yet, and it might continue to trade higher in the short term. The recent existing home sales data was on the positive side, which caused the US dollar to move higher. There is another important release lined up later today. The US consumer price will be published, which can cause a lot of moves in GOLD and SILVER. Any disappointing reading might take GOLD higher in the coming session.
There is a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which has managed to hold the downside a couple of times. GOLD looks like consolidating in a small range before it decides to move in a particular direction. The mentioned trend line is very important, as it also coincides with the 100 hourly moving average. So, if the prices of GOLD moves lower towards the $1240 level, then there is a high possibility of it getting buyers. On the upside, initial resistance is around the $1250 level, followed by the previous high of $1255. The hourly RSI is flirting with the 50 level, which is not a good sign in the short term.
If GOLD breaks down and clears the highlighted bullish trend line, then it might head towards the 200 hourly moving average, which is just below the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last move from the $1231 low.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the prices are above the mentioned trend line.
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The Euro was seen trading higher against the Japanese yen earlier during the Asian session, but the upside was stalled around the 137.34 level. The EURJPY is under retracement as of now and testing an important support area which could produce a bounce in the pair moving ahead. The German IFO business climate index is due for release in a few minutes, which is expected to decline from 104.7 to 104.3. If the outcome surpasses the expectation, then it might create buying interest for the Euro in the near term. Moreover, the Euro area private loans data will also be released which can ignite some moves in the pair.
There is a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which acted as a support and resistance on a number of occasions. The pair is currently trading around the mentioned trend line which can push it back up. Currently, the trend line also coincides with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 136.47 low to 137.34 high. So, there is a strong chance of a move higher in the near term. The pair has to break the recent high for more upside towards the 138.00 area where the Euro sellers might appear again. The hourly RSI is heading towards the 50 level, which might also provide support to the pair.
If the economic releases in the Euro area miss the forecast, then the pair might break the highlighted bullish trend line to trade lower towards the 100 moving average.
Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair stays above the mentioned trend line.
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