One characteristic of MA crossovers is that they will always be, by definition, pointing one way or the other, even when a market is flat and trendless (which is usually where people give up a lot of pips from false signals). This is why this kind of system does need some kind of other filters to help avoid this feature in ranging markets.
I have to say that, flicking through all the majors right now, I am not seeing anything to inspire me at all this morning. The weakest looking are EU and GU but even those seem a little lacking in “commitment” and I am wary of shorting either of them right now. Everything just seems, well, disinterested right now, across the globe. Maybe that is “summer syndrome” kicking in? Let’s see later…
Here’s just one example of what seems to highlight a lack of direction. This is just an EU one-hour chart from beginning of July with just a 4H 200 SMA on it. How much straighter could an MA get! Even Robin Hood would be impressed with that as an arrow!
But that doesn’t mean we won’t see some moves - just that maybe the pip-grabbing smaller moves might be more productive right now?
But, again, the idea of this thread is to check out the HLHB as a system which is mechanical and only looks at its entry/exit signals, so I don’t think I should really be posting these kinds of thoughts here!!!
[quote=“Alberto.GP, post:136, topic:156573”]
I’m short in USDJPY, my entry position is 112.725, the EMA (5) crossed below the EMA (10) and the RSI crossed below the 50 mark.[/quote]
I would keep a tight watch on this one. The market is above last week’s closing price and above the 1H 200 SMA. It is also, interestingly, against the SW rating in Dennis’ thread:
I am NOT saying you are wrong and, of course, you need to follow the system signals. All I am saying here is that there are signs that this could be a fakey as it is against some other types of indications. If you see a reverse signal then it is certainly worth closing it at that time, I think.
My bad @anon46773462, I had 3,9 EMAs on the chart as I often do and did not adjust them ! - RSI I’ve always used as a simple overbought / oversold indicator rather than a crossover indicator so an anticipation of a cross held no fear.
However it was a bet I was lucky to get out of - GU Did in fact retest 1.3000 this morning and so far ir is holding.
Retail shorts went up from 25 to 29 and now it’s back to 28% with 2.3% increase in open interest - so they are coming in LONG - Now where are they putting their stops ?
I have to say it is not easy to think strictly in accordance with the System as presented when I have pretty strong opinions of mine own just at the moment !
However I do sincerely struggle with “Trend following”, so I shall try harder ! It is a skill I would LOVE to become adept at !
Longer term, (the last year or so,) it is almost dead centre between the highs at just over 1.4 and the lows at just under 1.2, so that gives us no clue as to a direction, although we could view it as a 50% Fib retracement of the last move if we were so inclined.
[Edit - Interestingly, If you take a look at the MONTHLY chart GU, it seems to have just triggered with the crossover and RSI / ADX positions are looking hopeful too ! - Now that chart is one you could easily take 400 pips (or a lot more) off ! - but again - where to put stops ? I wouldn’t fancy a 150 SL on that chart ! ]
Ooooh! I guess discretionary wins again because I ended up getting stopped out at @1.16525 when I left my position overnight.
Seemed like it was a very precise and smart trade. It’s great that you were able to catch that! Were you just casually going through the pair charts or do you really check all EUR pairs? [quote=“Manxx, post:131, topic:156573”]
…but I am afraid I have lost touch with the HLHB at the moment - to my shame!
[/quote]
It’s also very interesting to see the strategies other people use. These might also help me know how to tweak the system depending on the opportunities.
Yes, it turned out positive! . It was looking very neutral/weak yesterday and certainly weak this morning as i mentioned earlier:
But i was in too much of a summer mood with our continuing heatwave here +32degs right now! Can’t think straight and can’t be bothered to follow anything indoors!
But both EU and GU have seen drops worthy of a trade. Just shows that whatever our fundamental opinions might be it is always worth waiting for the techs to say when!
Super close! I also got stopped out at @1.3068 but fortunately, I was still also able to grab a few pips. Haha. Do you have any positions open now? My indicators for GBP are giving me nothing right now. (At least according to the system. )
Thank you soooo much Alberto! Thankfully, we’re okay now. But, since it’s the rainy season over here, I’m pretty sure that this is gonna happen every now and then. We really need to step up our drainage facilities.
6 hours after this post and my charts are still also showing no clear direction. The same goes for my indicators. Am I missing something? So, I guess I’m not opening any position today guys.
HAHA! Don’t worry @anon46773462! If anything, I think these kinds of posts are helpful for the other guys here who have tweaked the system to fit their styles!
This is well worth following. But note that it is NOT a trading system as such. Its concept is to identify the strongest versus the weakest performing currencies with the assumption that trading this pair (which changes as time goes by) offers the best trending likelihood. This means that traders should apply their own trading methods and entry/exit criteria to whichever currency pairs are identified by this approach. Dennis updates the table based on each day’s closing prices.
Although its main principle is only to identify the pairs worth trading, Dennis does willingly offer his views and advice on trading these pairs. It is worth keeping an eye on. In fact there is no reason why the HLHB couldn’t be applied to whatever currency pairs it suggests. The only caveat is that HLHB is aimed at the hourly TF whereas the SW approach can be looking to stay in pairs for even weeks. But what if the HLHB would only be applied when in the direction of the SW recommendations? Well, that, I think is what happened today with the USDJPY?..
That’s how it goes in these fickle, somewhat directionless markets. UJ has been particularly listless this week - and now suddenly we are back at last friday’s closing area! No trend, just pip-grabbing - again!
I have no positions open at the moment. I’m still closely waiting for my indicators to hit the criteria. How are you guys? Are there any moves detected by your other systems?
I still think that the system’s been pretty successful so far. I’ve gained more pips than I lost so that’s always great news for me! I’m just gonna stick with the 100 TP and 20 TS (the original) because I don’t really wanna risk so much once I go live.
I opened a new position in USDJPY currently the indicators looks strong to go short, but in the last hours I missed an opportunity of more than 100 pips that the HLHB system would catch easily, I hope I didn’t arrive late to the bearish trend.
I can confirm with the ADX a strong trend since the indicator is higher than 25.
Hello @anon46773462, I have a question I hope you can help me, previously you mentioned something about a 200 EMA, How do you use 200 EMA in your trades?
The 1H chart shows that bearish trend of the last days in USDJPY, but there are 2 specific hours with more than 50 pips change, maybe I should start to use the economic calendar to understand better the fundamental behind these impacts
I guess discretionary wins again because I ended up getting stopped out at 
Were you just casually going through the pair charts or do you really check all EUR pairs? 
[quote=“Manxx, post:131, topic:156573”]
These might also help me know how to tweak the system depending on the opportunities. 
My indicators for GBP are giving me nothing right now. 
(At least according to the system. 
Am I missing something? 
So, I guess I’m not opening any position today guys.
I’m still closely waiting for my indicators to hit the criteria. 
How are you guys? Are there any moves detected by your other systems? 
