It is the 200 SMA not the EMA that I use. (maybe I made a typo before? Can’t find it now!)
There is no magic behind the choice of this MA. I only keep an eye on it because it is widely used in forex markets as a S/R level/zone. This means there is reason to be cautious in entering a position that is close to, and towards, this line as it may reject and reverse there -. better in those circumstances to just wait and watch what happens.
The nice thing about a system like HLHB is that it keeps a clear chart and therefore it is easy to add various PA stuff like S/R lines and trendlines etc without the overall chart becoming too cluttered.
Hope you all had a great day, there were many pips to be had and I wish you all a happy weekend!
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Congrats @ria_rose for starting your own thread and testing HLHB system. I am really glad that most of the senior members are also actively participating in your (Newbie) thread.
Here are few of your posts few times back from which you would observed that how much confidence you have acquired in yourself as well as in your trading and have also improved better understanding of the charts.
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Good to hear from you @anon58863749! How are you doing with your own projects?
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Thanks @anon46773462 I was busy in testing and improving my SW Currency Analysis method as well as to my Ichimoku system with various settings.
At last, I have almost finalized both of them after testing and so many trial/errors since last few months.
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That’s good to hear. It certainly takes a methodical and persistent approach. Great that you are progressing with it!
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I’ve been doing some kind of recap over the last week (but only for EU) just to summarise how it would have turned out if traded according to 5/10 crossovers and RSI. (I don’t really like the ADX indicator, I’ve never used it and I don’t find much benefit from it here, either - so I’ve ignored its input here).
There are two reasons for doing this:
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Last week was quite a narrow range and it is interesting to see how this trend-based method survived in a trendless week.
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My own recognition of signals seems to differ sometimes from the system owner and I would really like to try and find out why!! I will compare my own signals for last week with those from HLHB when they are published on her blog (especially trades 3 and 4 are questionable).
I had a total of 5 signals, the first of which was opened the prior week on Fri 13.7. and was closed last Tuesday and the 5th trade was opened on Fri 20.7. and is still open.
Even though the week was trendless the end result was positive with +33 pips from closed positions and +65 on the open position number 5. But the table also shows how inefficient this kind of crossover method is when the moves are fairly small - the end two columns show the max number of pips each move achieved, which can be compared with the actual pips that the crossovers achieved.
No great surprises here.
This is a theoretical analysis only and ignores spreads, slippage, commissions, etc. Since we all seem to be trading this method with different variations, I just thought it might be useful to analyse it this way i.e. close to the original (with the exception of the ADX)
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Bubo scandiacus ? - it suits
Thanks for that analysis @anon46773462 - In honesty I’m surprised it came out that well - that 65 pip ongoing bet is going to cash at least 30 pips on it’s own I would guesstimate.
As you say - somewhat wasteful of pips, but bearing in mind most cannot manage to trade a week positive at all, It give a great start for newbies, especially when as you say it is a trending system used in a consolidation zone !
From your chart, even to get the results you got, we cannot afford to miss the entry by even one bar and there are cases (pn bar - middle area of trade (1) ) where an early exit would have cost a significant number of pips which the bet recovered and went in to make a profit. The inference I take from this is that a LOT of time needs to be spent at the screen, so as not to miss a bet, or it needs to be a programmed trading system !
Seems to me as well, that it would be most unlikely to go more than 30 - 40 pips into loss without an opposing crossover, save on “News” (which is often temporarty move in any case) or a “Black Swan event” - did / would you use a catastrophy Stop loss in there at say 100 pips ?
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[quote=“Falstaff, post:168, topic:156573”]
Bubo scandiacus ?
[/quote]I don’t live quite that far north, but close enough! . Santa Claus is still towards the North Pole from here
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Well, here it is: Huck’s report on last week with the official HLHB:
https://www.babypips.com/trading/forex-hlhb-system-20180716
As I anticipated, the EURUSD chart is very different to my own. Clearly, I cannot replicate the signals that the system is supposed to generate! Whereas I had 5 trades, Huck only had one! and that wasn’t until Friday where we did actually agree.
I did mention that my trades 3 and 4 were dubious due to the ADX (and which my own similar method did not agree with) but I do not understand why the long trade opened on 13.7. and the short trade on 17.7.did not register on the official version. Here are the three set-ups side by side - I find it hard to distinguish why those with the red dotted lines (mine) are invalid compared with Huck’s one and only signal on the RHS (which we both registered).MAs cross, RSI crosses and even the ADX is crossing. I do not know how precisely all three of these HAVE to occur precisely on the same candle. In my opinion if the next candle also confirms all three then there is a valid signal. HUCK mentioned in one post that crossovers should have occured “recently”. I am not sure what “recently” means in the context of a mechanical system, but it does at least suggest that all three crosses do not have to occur simultaneously.
The good news is that taking the other two would have earned pips anyway! But I cannot continue “testing” a system where I cannot even confidently interpret the signals correctly! So I won’t continue with this any more.
Hi Manxx , i can only think that she use closed price for the indicator… and dont forget that different broker can have a little difference in the value of indicator… further more she enter only if the condition are meet on the candle that generate the cross…I can not think of anything else … If she can reply will be great and clear
That may explain some differences but, for example, the ADX clearly does not have to cross over the 25 line on the same candle as the cross. If one cannot replicate the same signals then one is not trading the same method… And the results to date from the official report become meaningless.
Yes, i agree with you to a very large extent. Although one does not need to watch constantly, it does require at least checking in every hour, on the hour!
I guess that i am fortunate in that in my time zone the London open is around 8am and the NY close around midnight so most of the active trading (and signals) occurs during “normal” hours. I watch more intently if a signal seems to be likely, but otherwise i only glance at the MT4 on my mobile every hour…but, in theory, one should be checking every hour 24/5! Hmmmmm!
But it is intense when prices are ranging.
yep… waiting a reply from Huck
Yes, I opened a short position in USDJPY, I forgot to closed it last Friday, I just hope no surprise during the weekend.