I'm trying out the HLHB system!

[ria_rose]

Helloooo. I’ve been demo trading for the past couple of months (thought I wasn’t very active. ) Back then, I usually just try to identify candlesticks or chart patterns. It was pretty much a guessing game for me. Huhu. But then, going around the site again, I’ve decided to try out a system to hopefully set me on the right track.

HLHB Trend-Catcher System Explained

I’m still trying to work my way through the system and see if I understand it. I’ll probably watch over it this week.
But, I’m currently short on both GBPUSD @1.31730 and EURUSD @1.16458.

[anon46773462]

Good luck with this, @ria_rose.

It is a good method in principle since it will, by definition, often keep you in a trend for a good period. But the problems arise when the market is ranging and not trending, or is even just lolling around doing nothing much at all. Again, by definition, the short MA will always be on one side or the other of the long MA even in a stagnant market, and there is no clear way to know whether each cross is the start of a new move or just another costly wobble. Since markets trend for only a small part of the time then fake signals are a curse of this type of straegy.

One of the most difficult decision areas with many methods is when to exit a position. What are you doing about exits with this one? Are you also planning to use trailing stops as in the HLHB method? I think you could also consider adding a target level such as based on a S/R level from a higher TF.

It is also worth considering the week ahead. For example, when the week ends with the NFP you are more likely to see some fairly short bursts of action in both directions rather than a major trend move of several hundred pips in one direction. You could, therefore see a series of crossovers that offer potentially 10-50 pips per move and that may be more rewarding than just a trailing stop. But, as we know, every move is different and there are many other factors that could cause a decent move this week in spite of the NFP. I guess it all comes down to whether you are treating this as a mechanical system or a discretionary method.

This method is very close to the core approach that I have used for decades (only with EU) but not as a simple enter/exit/reverse on successive crossovers - we all know that does not work consistently. But I do use a similar method for entry and continuation but with discretionary exit.

I’m looking forward to seeing how this method works out for you!

PS: My variation of this has not yet given a sell on EU and is currently neutral. So I am personally keen to watch with you how this works out!

[ria_rose]

Super thank you for your input! I’m trying to figure this system out so I really appreciate your advise huhu.

Right now, I just follow the instructions given in the system, including the trailing stops. I want to try identifying the most profitable exits but I just went with the “safe” (??) way and went with the instructions.

Since markets trend for only a small part of the time then fake signals are a curse of this type of straegy.

I agree. Before I decided to use this system, I already tried setting my chart for it and I saw instances when the indicators match the criteria, only to move the other way again. Still, I thought it would at least give me direction.

It is also worth considering the week ahead. For example, when the week ends with the NFP you are more likely to see some fairly short bursts of action in both directions rather than a major trend move of several hundred pips in one direction. You could, therefore see a series of crossovers that offer potentially 10-50 pips per move and that may be more rewarding than just a trailing stop. But, as we know, every move is different and there are many other factors that could cause a decent move this week in spite of the NFP. I guess it all comes down to whether you are treating this as a mechanical system or a discretionary method.

Do you think this will still work even if I don’t constantly check my positions? The thing about my demo trading in the past is that I often miss moves like this. [quote=“Manxx, post:2, topic:156573”]
I’m looking forward to seeing how this method works out for you!
[/quote]

Thank you! I will try to constantly update this thread regularly so I could also have the option to review my positions and see if this system works for me.

[ria_rose]

This is what my chart for GBPUSD looks like right now btw. Haha. (I’ve always wanted to post a chart too. ) I hope I’m doing it right.

I’m just at .34% (45 pips) profit for this one but that’s still so much better than how I did in the past. Hahaha.

(For EURUSD, I’m just at .10% profit huhu. It’s much more unstable than the cable. )

[anon46773462]

Do you think this will still work even if I don’t constantly check my positions? The thing about my demo trading in the past is that I often miss moves like this.

You are looking good so far - well done! great stuff! It took my version another couple of hours to trigger and go short and at a slightly lower level than yours - but this is where we can start to see how things can become very interesting and personalised through discretionary diversification:

The method sticks with it using a trailing stop, but I have already closed out when we hit 1.1600. That, for me, is a nice 1st trade for the month and I always like to book an early profit. But we could still see some significant downside here in spite of NFP because of, for example, weakness in the Euro due to the problems in Germany and the EU in general regarding migrant policy and its handling - and I generally always get out far too soon!

I certainly don’t want to influence your judgement in any way with any trades, but it would be nice to share some views as we go here. Most people on BP are not interested in this kind of method and I don’t get to share much with anyone here. But feel free to tell me to be quiet if I am distracting you at all in your progress!

[ria_rose]

The method sticks with it using a trailing stop, but I have already closed out when we hit 1.1600. That, for me, is a nice 1st trade for the month and I always like to book an early profit. But we could still see some significant downside here in spite of NFP because of, for example, weakness in the Euro due to the problems in Germany and the EU in general regarding migrant policy and its handling - and I generally always get out far too soon!

I was actually wondering if I could also exit earlier. Huhu. Since I’m worried that I might end up losing. I want to sleep but I’m worried that when I wake up tomorrow, I’ve been stopped out. I feel like I have to be closely watching my chart to ensure that I’m not losing. Huhu. What do you think is the best thing to do?

I certainly don’t want to influence your judgement in any way with any trades, but it would be nice to share some views as we go here. Most people on BP are not interested in this kind of method and I don’t get to share much with anyone here. But feel free to tell me to be quiet if I am distracting you at all in your progress!

Haha. To be honest, I think I need all the influence I could get! I’m super thankful that you’re being patient with me so far. I would love to discuss my demo trades 'cause I find it really hard to process this on my own. Huhu. You’re super awesome!!!

[anon46773462]

I was actually wondering if I could also exit earlier. Huhu. Since I’m worried that I might end up losing. I want to sleep but I’m worried that when I wake up tomorrow, I’ve been stopped out. I feel like I have to be closely watching my chart to ensure that I’m not losing. Huhu. What do you think is the best thing to do?

Since you are on demo and trying out a preset method, I think there is good reason to stick with the trades as planned unless something happens to change the overall view. In this case ( I can only comment on EU), it is typical to see a temporary period of stalling around a big number like 1.1600, These are often called psychological S/Rs.

Overall, the daily, 4H and 1H are in synch with the view that lower levels are a probability here and the 4H is a fresh signal, which normally can continue for some time.

But at this stage, for you, while on demo, if you really want to trial this approach then I would say that you will get a most realistic assessment by sticking to the rules as closely as possible for a good period of time and then you will be in a position to appraise it properly. But it is always good to keep an open mind and assess the options as you go - whatever you decide to do.

Let’s see where this goes from here and carry out the biopsy later!

[ria_rose]

But at this stage, for you, while on demo, if you really want to trial this approach then I would say that you will get a most realistic assessment by sticking to the rules as closely as possible for a good period of time and then you will be in a position to appraise it properly. But it is always good to keep an open mind and assess the options as you go - whatever you decide to do.

I’ve thought about it and I think I’m just gonna stick with my position. I agree with you and I think it makes sense that if I really want to see if the system works for me (and my all over the place personality lol), I’d follow the rules now and maybe tweak the approach once I’m comfortable with it.

I’m leaving for now with a .52% profit for GBPUSD and .34% for EURUSD.

Even if I get stopped out, it’ll still be an interesting trade we could discuss later! I’m off to bed. Thank you and good night!!!

[anon46773462]

Well we did see a tiny bit of weaker prices but after that we spent many hours doing nothing but hover around and over and above that 1.1600 level. But now, towards the close, we are seeing some fresh buying which, if it holds at or above these levels, will cause a crossover of both the EMAs and the RSI 50.

So, at this stage, it is looking like this 1st move of the week will indeed turn out to be a 50 pip move……….If so, then the score is 1-0 to the discretionary over the mechanical approach!

[anon46773462]

@ria_rose, are you also using the HLHB tweaks that she has added to the original method? i.e… the ADX with value 20?

We did see a crossover overnight as expected but was a weak signal and I interpret the present position as neutral. If I were trading this and still had my open position from yesterday I would close it now and wait for the next signal (my own version of this never crossed overnight but is now also neutral but with a very slight, insignificant, negative bias, which is really only a remnant of yesterday rather than anything new, which i would not trade yet as it is not a high quality trade).

One additional line that I also watch is the daily pivot and we are trading around that level this morning. If we get a good hourly close above that then it might flick me into a long position………

The German political situation seems a little more secure now and we are one day closer to NFP. The FOMC minutes on Thurs will also be on the radar. Although this is not a fundamentals-based method, I think it is prudent to watch the near-term events to help judge the likely price action and when and whether it is wise to step aside from an open position. As such, unless we see some new factors, I am still anticipating a week of erratic movement ahead.

How are you seeing this, @ria_rose?

[ria_rose]

Whew. I had to run a few errands so I wasn’t able to check my positions right away. Huhu.
For my GBPUSD short position, I ended up with a .26 USD profit. Hahaha. If I’m reading my data right, I got stopped out at 1.31468.

I would’ve gotten a higher profit if I closed my position earlier. But it’s still an improvement. Haha. I would like to continue with sticking to the system since it’s basically making the decisions for me. Haha. I don’t feel super bad and I’m not blaming myself haha. The discretionary approach really deserves the point!

[ria_rose]

@ria_rose, are you also using the HLHB tweaks that she has added to the original method? i.e… the ADX with value 20?

OMG! I didn’t see this update. I’m gonna add it to my chart now!

One additional line that I also watch is the daily pivot and we are trading around that level this morning. If we get a good hourly close above that then it might flick me into a long position………

Before logging in here actually, I just impulsively bought GBPUSD @1.31588 when I saw that the market matches the system instructions. Huhu. Was that a wrong move? I’ll also be monitoring these events to see whether I should close my positions earlier before the market moves against me.

[anon46773462]

I ended up with a .26 USD profit. Hahaha.

That is great! It is a result…and better than a USD100 loss!

I don’t know about the GBPUSD, I don’t follow that at all. That is more @Falstaff’s domain but I don’t know if he is interested in this kind of trading approach? Have to ask him, what do you think @Falstaff?

Overall, this is not a very good week to start this method as it might prove erratic, but one has to learn to deal with it under all conditions if one is going to stick with longer term. Certainly, HLHB has consistently gaoined from it and it would be worth your while @ria_rose, to follow her regular updates and current trades.

As for EU, I am still flat…….

[ria_rose]

That is great! It is a result…and better than a USD100 loss!

Definitely! I’m just super happy that it’s not turning out to be another super failed attempt.

I also think it would be great to hear what @Falstaff has to say! The more, the merrier. Haha. Actually, I’m also long for EURUSD @ 1.16481. Not sure what I feel abou it cause right now, I’m just at .02% profit and like you said, it’s very erratic!

[Falstaff]

Before logging in here actually, I just impulsively bought GBPUSD @1.31588 when I saw that the market matches the system instructions. Huhu. Was that a wrong move?

I actually think that was a good bet ! I am watching “it” struggle to achieve 1.3200 as I type, with a view to a possible down bet if it fails to break through, so it will either break through, or it will go down again - so you need to decide whether to hold for the 200 pips, (am I remembering the correct "system here?) or to go “discretionary” on this one I think.

I don’t know about the GBPUSD, I don’t follow that at all. That is more @Falstaff’s domain but I don’t know if he is interested in this kind of trading approach? Have to ask him, what do you think @Falstaff?

Lol - my “domain” is it ? - I wish I knew enough to make that so ! - but it is true that I do bet GBPUSD and have been looking at possible “predictive correlation” between that and EURUSD.

However I digress. Yes I am looking at ma crossovers as having some predictive value having “thrown them out” many years ago. I now think that was the wrong decision in some ways because of the way I understood the recommended system - ie using the crossovers for entry AND exit thereby losing much of teh movement gained by waiting for an exit signl.

I don’t thik they are “the Holy Grail” - but combined with the RSI (used as a “crossing the average” indicator as this system does, rather than an oevrbought / oversold indicator ) plus support and resistence, it may well be a “way forward”) I do have ma s on both of my open charts (GBP and EUR) at the moment.

I am observing this thread with interest and will contribute wgere I can

All the Best

F

[Edit - damn that big down bar in the last 5 minutes, whilst I was typing was TOO big for me to get an entry. I also find Big bars a litte suspicious ! - lol ]

[ria_rose]

I actually think that was a good bet ! I am watching “it” struggle to achieve 1.3200 as I type, with a view to a possible down bet if it fails to break through, so it will either break through, or it will go down again - so you need to decide whether to hold for the 200 pips, (am I remembering the correct "system here?) or to go “discretionary” on this one I think.

OMG That’s good to hear! I’m currently at .16% profit (or 20 pips) so I’m still very unsure as to how I’d go about this trade. Just a quick question though, if I set my TP at 100 pips, how will I still be able to hold for 200 pips? (I’d have to revisit the school of pipsology for my refresh! )

Just like yesterday, I’d probably problematize it towards the end of the day, before I go to bed. Haha.

[ria_rose]

@ria_rose, are you also using the HLHB tweaks that she has added to the original method? i.e… the ADX with value 20?

I’ve been trying to look for the updated version @anon46773462. I can’t seem to find it so I haven’t updated my chart indicators yet. Huhuhu. I hope it’s not so much of a hassle for you to link me up. Huhu. Is the ADX the only modification?

[ria_rose]

This is how my chart for GBPUSD looks like right now. Closely watching and waiting for the market’s direction.

[Falstaff]

Just a quick question though, if I set my TP at 100 pips, how will I still be able to hold for 200 pips?

Nope don’t do that, I was wrong in my memory of what I had read ! That’s all. Sorry if I confused you

[ria_rose]

Oh no. No problem! I was actually very interested with the idea. I thought I could maybe do that if ever the market goes towards the direction of my trade.