Hey rod178! I noticed you have the REF labelled in your fib. What level is that exactly?
It denotes the reflection pattern for entry. Saves having to pull the Fib up to that level to obtain it manually.
Fiber short I took this morning for a quick 22 pips on the first half and the second still running.
This is the 5 minute execution chart with daily chart below.
For free charts on O.I. go to barchart.com
To see how to set up the charts go to 38 mins on the Trading Plan Development Series Part 5:
Inner Circle Trader’s Trade Plan Development Part 5 - YouTube
For an overview of top down anylsis on O.I. Part 1 of the TPDS at 59.20 mins
Inner Circle Trader’s Trade Plan Development Series Part 1 - YouTube
For a teaching module on Open Interest see this entire video
Inner Circle Trader’s PTC 09/08/12 - YouTube
A common question is what effect has expiration of contracts on O.I. - answer here beginning of video
Inner Circle Trader 12/06/12 - YouTube
More info on O.I.
at 07.30 mins
Inner Circle Trader’s PTC 09/14/12 - YouTube
at 08.00 mins
Inner Circle Trader’s Market Review 09/16/12 - YouTube
That should keep you busy for a while:)
wow! thanks peterma!!
This forum rocks!
Thanks Peterma for the help on that.
Open interest increase by 20% = increasing short positions = falling prices.
Open interest decrease by 20% = increasing long positions = raising prices.
Yes Vinster, but there is even more to it - for example if oi is increasing whilst a price move is underway then that is regarded as a confirmation of the move, there are many other facets, including looking at oi with volume - but the beauty of the beast is it is an early indicator of change ahead if read correctly.
Perhaps the most signifcant time I saw ICT using it coupled with COT was in calling the low in the Euro this past summer - I was so disbelieving that a low was in sight - over here we were all preparing for the it’s inevitable demise and here he was calling a turn - boy was I not laughed at when I told some colleagues that a guy in the US says it’s ok, the euro will survive by looking at some lines on a chart.
That teaching module is good
As efficient as ever! Cheers peterma
Sweet thanks 
Ok, so I’m studying ICT Plan Development 5, open interest section, and ICT shows the chart of British Pound with open interest rising, commercial net short, with a decline in price. This is confusing to me because from my understanding when commercials are net short we should be at a high. Now, I have the Yen chart that I just pulled up that has open interest rising, decline in price, but the commercials are net long, which is the way it should be because when commercials are net long then price should be at a low.
Can someone help me understand what is happening here?
Price action is fractal also it doesn’t move in a straight line, which means that you could actually have a situation where in a larger environment you could have price going in two directions as part of the underlying pattern. Therefore you could have an overall bullish environment inside of which exists a bearish environment. Alternatively, you could have an overall bearish environment within which is a bearish environment. This of course means that two different traders could place trades in opposite direction yet both make money on the other hand they could both lose money as the market wasn’t going in either direction just consolidating and they both got it wrong. However, it is nearly Christmas so why don’t we all have another drink and think about it in the new year?
I hope this helps? Happy Christmas. :8:
Drone, maybe have a look at this ’ Secrets of the COT Report’
Trade Forex Like The Pros - Secrets To The COT Report - YouTube
I have watched Secrets of the COT Report, this is how I have the understanding of commercial net short = higher in price and net long = lower. What is confusing to me is the commercial net short position in the British Pound during May and June 2012 while price is declining. I’m assuming that open interest rising plays a role in this in that they are adding to there shorts. Now, the Yen’s open interest is rising while price is declining (Adding to there shorts) but commercials are net long.
Can you explain why this is?
thanks
Drone, I hate the Yen - all this BOJ intervention etc - I refuse to trade it, in my business it gets the blame for price increases, price decreases.
As you know with COTs it is the extremes that count - will post tomorrow.
You know AK, I used to be the biggest believer in supply/demand
Every fibre of my business life - from 40 yrs ago - was taught - price hinges on one thing - supply/demand.
When i first encountered the word ‘engineering’ from an experienced cme floor trader I thought - Hmm - He used to say that the orders would be stacked on one of those wooden bases with a wire pin - news would come through the wires (before computers as we know them) - price would move and all those orders would be sitting there - and then as he would watch - price would magically return, his job was to match the orders - he would lift off the orders - all was well.
The orders got filled, zero sum game, who lost? - yep us.
Btw - if any of you doubt that ‘manipulation’ exists - check out:
The other funny thing about this price behaviour - there was’nt a name for it - there was talk of ‘it coming back for you’ or ‘old man getting out of bath’ (sounds like me :)) or ‘between the certain colours’ or etc, etc.
No definition - no specifics, exactly where would price come back to - apparently you had to pay to be told that specific ‘secret’ - man I hated that word ‘secret’, that meant get your credit card out.
Now I’m looking to see what thread I’m in - it’s ok - see where I am.
1/0.705 = 1.4184
Thanks so much!
New CFTC Data is out. In addition to looking at the main CFTC data, I’m looking at Scotia FX’s analysis for further clues into what the institutions are up to.
The full PDF of their analysis is attached below.
IMM(3).pdf (1.77 MB)