Like Ict says⌠After the fact, but this is proof enough for me.
sure mate, good trade
what i meant is you can share opinion, comment, advice
and sometimes people agree other times they disagree,
i donât believe this forum has clique habits or excessive critique, it kinda holds its own by what members post, especially now that no former leader is present so to speak.
As itâs been 12 weeks and Iâm at the 1st quarter mark, I thought Iâd give a quick update as to my trading results.
As you can see things got off to a very hairy start mainly through trading without stop losses on a few early trades as if I knew where the markets were going, BIG mistake. I ended up with nothing but a huge drawdown and a monthly loss of -4.81%.
The past two months have been much nicer with gains of 12.09% and 9.54% respectively moving my YTD results to 16.88%.
Win / Loss % ratio is 64% / 36% respectively and mainly I trade Eur/Usd & Gbp/Usd.
Things I need to do more consistently:
Practice patience
Trade my plan
Let winners run
Cut losers short
Sometimes I am guilty of trading against the MS while Iâm waiting for the longer term move to play out which results in only taking advantage of a small part of the move I was originally hunting. A great example of that was today, where I was scalping down on the Cable, looking for a deeper retracement before the explosive move that we saw. Scalping took my focus away from the key levels and previous support I had been watching.
Also when I set stops and see price moving towards them, I let them hit them instead of closing them early. Very rarely do I let price hit my TP levels.
Another thing I have noticed is that I can get some good results while the markets are ranging and sometimes if Iam waiting for a large move, if I miss it, rather than awaiting another chance to get in, I for some reason become unsure as to jump back in or want to wait for a deeper retracement that rarely comes.
Therefore all in all if I can address the above, I am sure that better results will follow.
I realise now that my ÂŁ10k EOY goal may be a little far stretched at this point but I will keep plugging away and if I can work on just trading my 4HR/1HR levels and let my winners run then Iâll be in a much stronger position when I post my half year review.
From now on I plan only on trading GBP/USD & EUR/USD marking key levels on both each Sunday as I have been chopping and changing recently as to which pair to trade with the Cable being favoured for the past 3-4 weeks which has meant I have missed moves on the others.
OK, thatâs enough from me, if youâre still awake after reading that, good luck!
Tommy
A term I would use is that one market âinfluencesâ another.
This market influences is the focus of my education at present - Iâve been, and continue to use the US 10yr for my wing mirror before entering/exit a trade, I use itâs influence to see crack in correlation or confirmation, like today, that I may take a little chase with confidence.
But Iâm studying the concept of influence further - I believe that when I learn and understand these influences, which I will do, they will be of enormous value.
I view the usdx as a futures contract complete with all the techs that goes with it including cot, seasonals and the contractâs s/r - very tradeable on itâs own and a line up of trying to anticipate what going to happen on the fibre.
peterma, I have been using USDX in my trading and find it incredibly useful. I am having trouble seeing how to use the US 10yr bond or any of the bonds for that matter. I can see divergences and clues to its next move but I havenât made the connection as to how it is useful for EUR/USDâŚ
Any suggestions?
thanks in advance
Bill
LoL when im working there is allways some nice easy pip making days, when im watching markets allways Z days and sh1t 
A bang up to date example is this evening - US10yr 15 min over past 3 days / usdx futures same chart.
I had a pink line (lol I like pink) on the 10yr at yesterdayâs low at 132.90
The 10yr hit that pink line at 15.45-16.00 today
I also have a pink line on yesterdayâs low on the usdx at 83.00
The usdx hit that line from underneath at around the same time - so there were two âbarriersâ to indicate that the usdx would bounce here.
So if I was trading the usdx that could have helped me exit a long or scalp a short, or the opposite if I was trading the 10yr.
On the other hand if I was watching a dagger fall and had âcaughtâ it I would know to let go at this point and be happy.
This is just one way of using market influences.
Thank you for the response.
I understand playing S/R to help guide entry and exits, I use USDX this way most every trade. I am simply having a hard time seeing the correlation between USDX and US10yr on the chart.
Thanks again
Bill
I know my opinion is openly degraded here etc but if I may provide you with one piece of advice that virtually everyone here will disagree withâŚ
Donât scale back your capital exposure on your trades unless you are heavily insecure in your trade idea (in that event, you shouldnât even take the trade). I know ICT always preaches risk reduction etc, but the reality is that anyone making an above average (i.e. above 50%) win ratio should not cut back their risked amount, but rather keep it constant and focus on making your average win higher than your average loss. I have made massive leaps in my trading since the day I let go of ICTâs principle. Just think, you make a 2% loss, now youâre exposing 1% in order to make back 2%, and then 0.5% to make back 3% if you lose again, and so on, when you could risk another 2% and make back that 2% far easier.
Anyway, take it or leave it I guess! Just looking at your fxbook results I imagine youâd be far higher in terms of ROI if you did that⌠But not for everyone!
I still canât grasp the concept of Yields either, for example I have conflicting statements from ICT in my notes regarding Yields:
â âUS Yields Increase = Bullish US$â
â âIf yields are dropping and one of the 3 yields fails to make a lower low, look for US$ to bounce (vice versa)â
â âAs yields are increasing that is bullish for foreign currencies, as they drop it is bearish for foreign currenciesâ
â âRisk is on when yields are going up and risk is off wen yields are declining because foreign currencies chase yieldâ
â âYields dropping is a risk off scenario, meaning we are looking for sells until we see a divergence in the yieldsâ
â âThe US$ should be rallying as yields dropâ
Talk about confusing! Did I take notes wrong or is ICT contradicting himself? Can somebody set me straight?
From what I understand:
As bonds go up yields go down and vice versa. This is because when bonds are decreasing people are taking money out and selling them at a discount, bonds down and yields up.
ICT shows when 2 of the 3 make a higher high or lower low and the third fails to do so is a sign of a reversal.
Now I can see this happening but I just have a hard time with how to use the information to either initiate or manage a trade.
Went long at 1.3004 on euro, taken 20 pips at the nearest resistance. 20% left open and tightened SLâs again, hoping for a move up to 1.3057.
I personally donât scale back my trades either. Then again I have JUST gone live and havenât experienced a series of losses. I actually think the reasoning behind scaling back your trades after a loss is more psychological - You are training yourself not to âwin back your losing tradesâ. I think a large part of your scaling on trades should be based on how you react to losses.
Fibre going higher today?
Hmm, resized just small enough to be unreadable.
USDX 1H
Big swing from 4-4 high to 4-16 low and retrace to 79 percent on 4-24. Heading back down from the 79 percent to the 4-25 low. Just finished making a retrace to the 62 percent level from the 4-24 high to the 4-25 low.
Looking at the Fibre chart for the week we made the weekly low on 4-24 at 8 GMT and the weekly high on 4-25 at 12:30 GMT. Taking a fib from that low to that high we just made an OTE late yesterday/early today for a possibly run to 1.31300 range.
If my analysis is correct then I should be looking for a retrace to the 1.3001 area for an OTE to go higher right around London open.
Interesting PA at the moment. USDX lower lows, euro lower high. Wonder where euro will retrace to for a move up. HmmmâŚ
what ranges are these please?
Bill, in one video ICT was talking about a recent trade, he was talking about his reasons for entry - he then said â and the kicker was the usdx triad divergenceâ - he was saying he didânt use it to initiate a trade, he used it as confirmation of the setup - itâs a great confirmer or heads up of change ahead.
Current example - us10 yr up at pink line - possible bounce down - could be catalyst for bounce in fibre this LO - not a reason for entry in itself - just a possible confirmer, or if 10yr continues to rise, might keep me out.
That resistance level on bonds is really holding isnât it⌠wonder if itâll break⌠I hope not iâm planning on going long on euro lol
eurgbp chart, h4
support at 8400âŚ
looks like a long euro, short pound day
