It’s called an Umlaut
Look buddy, don’t you want to have your thought process as close as possible to what happens in reality? I only pointed that out because others will read it and also think that bonds lead equities or USDX or currencies or whatever, which is a grave mistake. You quite simply cannot make an assumption about one market solely based on another, because it’s like arguing that 1 wheel on a car is moving because of the other 3!
I think even ict gets that one wrong occasionally!
I’m trying to look for another opportunity to go short…
Valid point but there is lots of study done on intermarket analysis and the emphasis on bonds, esp by John Murphy.
shorted at 1.3090. i dont mind if its not coming back 
Would appreciate that you do not refer to me as Buddy. Better still, not refer to me at all.
I’ll only say one more thing on this subject - The term “lead” does not necessarily mean leading indicator. The point of my post was that the Bonds were trailing the USDX price action, as clearly ended up being the case. ie my inference was that I would be wary at present of using Bonds as a lead indicator. Got it ? No need to respond. Posted more for others than yourself, although supposing that others already understood.
Man, this is why I didn’t post on these forums all these years. You guys all hate being corrected and turn all hulk-like if someone says something you don’t agree with. Ag, whatever! I just caught a nice short from 1.3090 like my countryman TopFroxx! Good one!!
took 1. tp at +50, letting the remaining run to hunt the 1.3026 LO low
Great trade there TopFroxx, that move is really going down. Damn, shouldn’t have tightened my SL so much.
such a fake move today on fiber. only got dragged up by the gbp and the uk gdp data. euro has only had bad news this week, e.g. very disappointing german business climate numbers. the clean 1.30825 highs (sunday and tuesday highs) were the target, some orders obviously did not get filled there. also us initial jobless claims came out better than expected, meaning everything was stacked up against the fiber, especially at the 1.3090 number, which was also the 79% retracement from last fridays high to yesterdays low. also end of nyokz. i was also looking at bonds, but im not gonna start with that discussion
just closed last position at 1.3000. not sure if that was a good idea. but well, cant get them all. happy with what i got
Awesome.
Nice to see people making money today.
Didn’t get what I wanted, had buy limits sat a little lower on the cable so missed the majority of the move although a small profit from the day nonetheless.
thats not really fair what you say
you all this and that, you hate and you turn
maybe that’s what gets you in trouble on the forums every now and then.
not to mention rod has been one of the few to call out trades before they are complete, so i’d go with a little respect as the better choice
Sorry but it’s very difficult to decipher what you are trying to say there.
Anyway, it’s the typical forum / internet mentality of “How DARE you tell me something when I’ve been doing this for XX years calling trades like there’s no tomorrow”. I don’t believe I have shown anyone any disrespect. Had I done so, the moderators can delete me.
But in any case, I don’t think I’ve seen anyone in this thread make a loss so far, so why are you being so critical of me specifically?? See what I mean about people being so rampantly aggressive towards anyone who isn’t part of their clique. Ah well, closed that trade out for a cool 8%.
sure mate, good trade
what i meant is you can share opinion, comment, advice
and sometimes people agree other times they disagree,
i don’t believe this forum has clique habits or excessive critique, it kinda holds its own by what members post, especially now that no former leader is present so to speak.
As it’s been 12 weeks and I’m at the 1st quarter mark, I thought I’d give a quick update as to my trading results.
As you can see things got off to a very hairy start mainly through trading without stop losses on a few early trades as if I knew where the markets were going, BIG mistake. I ended up with nothing but a huge drawdown and a monthly loss of -4.81%.
The past two months have been much nicer with gains of 12.09% and 9.54% respectively moving my YTD results to 16.88%.
Win / Loss % ratio is 64% / 36% respectively and mainly I trade Eur/Usd & Gbp/Usd.
Things I need to do more consistently:
Practice patience
Trade my plan
Let winners run
Cut losers short
Sometimes I am guilty of trading against the MS while I’m waiting for the longer term move to play out which results in only taking advantage of a small part of the move I was originally hunting. A great example of that was today, where I was scalping down on the Cable, looking for a deeper retracement before the explosive move that we saw. Scalping took my focus away from the key levels and previous support I had been watching.
Also when I set stops and see price moving towards them, I let them hit them instead of closing them early. Very rarely do I let price hit my TP levels.
Another thing I have noticed is that I can get some good results while the markets are ranging and sometimes if Iam waiting for a large move, if I miss it, rather than awaiting another chance to get in, I for some reason become unsure as to jump back in or want to wait for a deeper retracement that rarely comes.
Therefore all in all if I can address the above, I am sure that better results will follow.
I realise now that my £10k EOY goal may be a little far stretched at this point but I will keep plugging away and if I can work on just trading my 4HR/1HR levels and let my winners run then I’ll be in a much stronger position when I post my half year review.
From now on I plan only on trading GBP/USD & EUR/USD marking key levels on both each Sunday as I have been chopping and changing recently as to which pair to trade with the Cable being favoured for the past 3-4 weeks which has meant I have missed moves on the others.
OK, that’s enough from me, if you’re still awake after reading that, good luck!
Tommy
A term I would use is that one market ‘influences’ another.
This market influences is the focus of my education at present - I’ve been, and continue to use the US 10yr for my wing mirror before entering/exit a trade, I use it’s influence to see crack in correlation or confirmation, like today, that I may take a little chase with confidence.
But I’m studying the concept of influence further - I believe that when I learn and understand these influences, which I will do, they will be of enormous value.
I view the usdx as a futures contract complete with all the techs that goes with it including cot, seasonals and the contract’s s/r - very tradeable on it’s own and a line up of trying to anticipate what going to happen on the fibre.
peterma, I have been using USDX in my trading and find it incredibly useful. I am having trouble seeing how to use the US 10yr bond or any of the bonds for that matter. I can see divergences and clues to its next move but I haven’t made the connection as to how it is useful for EUR/USD…
Any suggestions?
thanks in advance
Bill
LoL when im working there is allways some nice easy pip making days, when im watching markets allways Z days and sh1t 