Think about looking at a Gartley as just another part of the Market Maker profile, IMO.
I’m sure ICT says that the Judas swing is a LO thing, so a few hours until then 
This is what I have been struggling with since the beginning of this week. In regards to the Fiber, everyone is talking about the buy program and going long;but I can’t get my head around the HTF OTE from Nov 5th and I keep thinking I should be looking for shorts from the 1.2810 and 1.2820 levels. So that’s what I have been doing (taking shorts at those levels and taking some off after 20-25 pips or so) and it is working out nicely. I also see, however, that if I was taking longs at the 1.2775 level I would be having similar results. I guess what I’m asking, is where did the shift to the buy bias occur. Secondly, am I missing something glaring that supports higher prices rather than lower prices on the fiber long term? Thanks guys for any and all input.
Well I’m looking at it from this point of view… I keep on blowing the entry as I’m currently at sea so not 100% attentive.
Now, I know we are running up into an OTE short but price has been bashing against that 1.2818 level for quite some time and doesn’t want to go lower. the 168% Fib extension from that first price swing higher coincides with the OTE pulled from the swing high at 1.3020. We’ll see
You’ve got a good point about the Gartley Ibepippin but would it be a limited retrace due to a few wider macro events. It’s just that I’m seeing Dollar weakness…recent +divergence on the US Yields and UK Gilts (some shorter term -div UK), Indice +div atm (S&P HL’s from late July) and a Seasonal Tendency of the Dollar to weaken towards the mid-end of Nov period. A demo OTE of a potential limited Gartley drop comes to about 1.272?. During the Gartley the dollar also put in HH’s to the fibre’s HL’s but we have seen a drop since then on the Dollar.
Question is, is that recent ‘stab’ down on the Dollar a break in MS and have they priced in the Greek news…think I might see what the picture is when (and if) the Dollar comes back up to test those recent highs. Just thought I’d throw this out there.
Please feel free to throw stones and exclamation marks at anything I’ve said.
I think the stab down in the dollar is a break in the MS (it would correspond to a retest of the grey box section of the BUY MMP (1H chart)), that is, the top of the “low consolidation” at the 1.2680->1.27 level. If we are indeed in a BUY MMP then it definitely looks like a push higher would be on the cards (assuming ofcourse Greece get aid, maybe we get that initial drop off in the Fiber, then a big push right up).
This is what I’m seeing in terms of the Market Marking Profile, as for the black arrow on the chart, who knows 
We’ll find out soon enough I guess
those are valid points, 'm not going to throw stones :18:
this is what 'm looking at these days. there’s 3 graphs, yields for german bonds, and us and a d1 chart of fiber. The german bonds showed a divergence between long term and 2-year with on a peak on Oct 19, the day fiber began descent on its daily chart. notice how divergence occurred with the fast yields on the upside, and how the long term pulled those back. I currently look at us divergence in the same way, where fast notes could fall back in line.
on fiber daily chart i marked some fibs. I use fibs and trust them, and for the technical aspects i have come to believe that when a fib works, it will show very close to the pip. The large blue swing was retraced to some place in between 38 and 50, and the small swing on the way down was broken to reflection. While reflection can produce some very nice turn points, in this case i would have liked a stop at the standard 100, 128, 162. This leads me to believe the way down is not over yet. There is something else that i use called symmetry, ICT speaks of it as measured moves. when symmetry is broken at the time it should hold, i.e. at the end of a correction, it very often signals change of direction. On this chart, daily symmetry around 2765 was held then broken on Nov 7, which incidentally was today’s low. would have been a good long, didn’t catch it at the time, but anyways
So my question is 2765, is it going to be support pushing up, or will it be again broken on the way down… and if so i’d expect the wave to reach that 162 extension, and looking left there is also the origin of earlier up-move in Sep. Which is in line with concept of inefficient moves, and supply/demand.
and now we have price reacting at the Gartley and usdx showing boxed accumulation. i try to always consider both sides, and on balance seems to me for now there are good reasons for a short trade to 2600, it’s what 200 pips move and then see. Hope i answered the question or most of it, seasonality yes, in fiber it goes up at the end of the year. we’ll see how it turns out, thats why we are on hunting grounds :50:
Yes, it didn’t go up like I thought it could this morning, so will we see a Judas wing Low and then up like you suggest, I think it’s one of two possibilities, the other being, it’ll just go sideways until next week.
Like you say, we’ll see, an ever ever evolving story.
Once I started putting together that document, I had always intended to put links to the source material that was online so I could always go back to it. But I really want/wanted to get started with my trading experience and decided to just move past that. It really is just a personal reference in case I wanted to look back on notes.
I do have a mild reservation about people relying on it too much. Everyone looking to learn from ICT should really do it as he’s planned out with his videos. If there’s really a desire to flesh it out more for the masses, I can help or at least permit others to make the edits to it themselves.
…this is why I keep coming back to the thread. Good open debate on the possibilities, good excuse to delve deeper but not get too overwhelmed.
Was meant to say that positive divergence on the German Yields hasn’t yet appeared but the 10yr is getting ever-so close to posting a Lower Low compared to the other year terms HL’s (from end of Aug) so it might be worth looking at those again if we get a pullback on the Fibre at some point and see if it posts those lows.
Just this moment noticed a US Bond divergance at the top from mid July - 5yr HH, 10yr LH, 30yr LH (doesn’t mirror in the yields)
It’ll be interesting to see how all this turns out.
I was trading with the S&P Futures today and I was expecting 1386 to break as a break in market structure would signal continued higher moves and we swept just above it today and I saw this at lunch
You can open in a new tab for a larger view
Confluence @1.2820
Daily, 3 - Prior Daily High, Pivot, Fib
Weekly, 3 - Prior Weekly Low, Pivot and Fib
1 Hour, 2 - 76% retrace and 100% expansion
Counting 1.2820 the total is 9
Weekly and daily trinity in Sell area. That makes 11.
But anything can happen, stalking with the mindset that the High for the week was posted yesterday and the move up above the open first for the weekly is setting the stage for the slaughter.
Hunting for reaction south off of this level then a set up, taking off half today and leaving partial for Monthly Trinity 1.618 (1.27 has already been breached)
If all fails, no longs for me.
45 pip reaction of of the levels noted above. Locked and Loaded, safety off.
Just for reference sake… it all goes out the window on a Holiday Week and Year end… you get a lack of symetry and I won’t trust my own tools. Otherwise, I’d never take the break.
:57:
So how many good weeks are there to trade? 32?
I blackout Thanksgiving Week
I blackout Third Week December-Second Week January.
I scale back in July-August
The rest is open season :57:
Looking at last year, definitely consolidation during this same week.
Observation while I was checking this out;
For the month of November 2011 and 2012, both opened near to the high and last years low closed near to the low.
The range last year was 650, the range so far this month, 321.
If the lower 200% Monthly trinity extension is targeted and hit, that will bring the range to around 510 at 1.2470 which is also the 50% retracement (to the pip) down into the current weekly range.
Both years also started the month with more than average expansion.
Looking to the left, in October, if these swings were matched, it looks like the party might have started early this year.
If nothing today, closing down for the week. I can see possible reaction off multiple confluence areas of resistance today. Looking to ride the Monthly range if it plays out.
Got the reaction anticipated on the Fiber, looking for retracement now. I don’t see OTE due to it being above the DPP.
38.2 is lined up with a pivot at 2790. Looking to take a shot there. 35 pip stop will put me above todays high.
Me too brother. Exact same spot.
70 pips in asia chinese went cray
the question on my mind is: was it just a nice stop run OR a new little MM buy profile, in which case I should wait for another leg down before going long… hmm decisions decisions…