Hey if we turtle soup the fiber tomorrow, the 200 ext is 1.2920, a great place to get long. 70% likely hood of hitting the WPP in any week.
Never mind. Answered.
Yes - a level to be aware of
it is OTE last weeks (Wednesday )low and also about weekly mid Pivot S1, obviously a Figure as well.
Edit: 161 extension Friday’s low as well
Stopped out of Fridays short @ 1.3037 (SL @ 1.3026) due to “market jump” which meant I gave back all the 3% gain from Friday! SL would have meant I’d have kept some profit, but well these things happen. I’m off to work now before I start trading again. See you all later.
my “prediction” for the week: push higher today/tomorrow to ~1.3080 forming the high of the week and also mm sell model high and HTF deep OTE. then bounce back to at least 1.2950.
EUR/USD hit the 79% level from the previous H4 swing high, bounced off Friday’s high, and now is heading up a bit.
The Dollar is bouncing around the 80 level
Watched tonight’s ICT video. Sounds to me to like wait to see which way the dollar is going to go from the 80 level up or down.
Took half off at 3020… and moved the SL to BE…SL just got hit… if it hadn’t I was looking at 1.2995 as my 2nd TP since this is where I become bullish and it would be the 70% OTE from the wk open and the 200% ext from the short I took
The more I watch PA the more amazed I am at being able to see what is going on using ICT’s methods.
I caught on to another element of how retail gets screwed over today.
Price ran up in Asia to accumulate buy orders to possibly get the sell party started. What is interesting is that it would seem that a nice rejection spike was left behind for anyone looking to get short on a bounce. So those that got short with their high above the rejection candle high were part of the accumulation plan after the second run up. Some are also long on the break out suffering draw down or were stopped, more accumulation.
Then 2 hours of consolidation after Asia a quick pop up to get more buy orders.
I think commercials are getting short just by watching the beatings today.
I used to look for breakouts and S/R rejection setups. What blows my mind is how obvious the raid is now and how it has always been there bending me over.
Everyday I learn so much just by watching PA kicking the crap out of retail.
I am still amazed by its simplicity in design.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge Michael.
Looking at EUR/USD the same thing?
Up over the Asian session high where people who are short have their stops and right back down into the accumulation range. A couple more times to the upper and lower stops and then breakout high since the dollar index is falling?
107.50 was 79% retrace of recent move down; clear change in market structure on 15 min; price then formed a nice H & S pattern at that level
but its not clear to me yet which way this pair is going; 107 and Tuesday’s hi are still holding; in fact looking at H1 chart atm, it looks as if it is reversing long now; need to see a change in MS tho
Looks like the NYKZ ran another raid on 2 intraday highs. Now we are entering OTE with reflection, Lot of green lights. Yup its Monday, looking to scalp 20 @ 70% and run a partial to the close at B/E.
I’m short on fiber at 1.3065. But the reaction over there doesn’t seem much good .
I have a big yellow line on the daily at 3076 for weeks - see May 4th, Sep 19, Oct 5th. Oct 22/23
That last date is most important - stops up above there - obviously if we can make it above the 3080 then 3150 is in sight
Wow, loads of posts to catch up on! Been super busy over the weekend and didnt really get near the charts.
Yep, Once that USDX broke the 80 level so impressively, I was hunting EUR/USD longs. (Providing that the 80 level held as resistance, which is why I had a pretty tight SL).
So I took the OTE Long @ 1.3026. First objectives were the 1.3060 level (79% retracement from the largest swing, one my pre-noted levels from last week)
30 pips bagged, lets see how the remainder plays out.
Im watching for that 1.3080 level next. If that should hold, then I think we’ll see quite a bit of downside. Maybe we gun those old highs first before dropping (on a macro level, indicating that we are ultimately going higher, but not before we get a big drop down).
okay, check this out - AR was already 64 pips on my feed, stops at 3030 cleared, they could push price further on their own dollar, or they could take some profits and wait for next liquidity time in London. Those 2 fib levels would also ensure other sell orders would be there from long frame traders. anyways, seem’d ok to me but i can see how it could be viewed as a very high risk trade.
USDX futures on my live feed went up tp 7999.50 - US 10 yr sitting just below 133.30 (former support short term), Euro Bund sitting just below 142.40 ( former short term support) - all 3 broke their support this morning and now eyeballing it from below -
Who blinks first!!
Happy that I exited my long but remain bullish - let’s see what happens.
Hello Richard,
I like also to get my analyses based on Market Structure, but it’s just impatience that make things harder…
When I let go the rush to be in the market…this is what happens… (hope this helps )
I´m still struggling to get better exit’s…but I’m very happy and thankful for the improvement on my learning curve and results…
I still got so much to learn…
But here is my exit on this trade.
THANK YOU ICT… for all the things you do!!!
Good Luck and Good Trading for everyone!
Has the aussie and Kiwi market structure broken to the upside ? …
Aussie made a higher high after a lower low. NU made a lower low , but has subsequently been rising off OTEs.
So am not sure …