SMT Divergence showing shorting pressure on the USDx
Combined with a confluence of OTE Entry Point and the 1.3200 level
I have a pending Long order on the EUR/USD at 1.32000
There are a number of things to consider here, a very large āinefficientā run down towards that 1.2880 level, you could think of it as a Judas swing of sorts. Typically, when price reacts like that, it will attempt to retrace back and fill those inefficiencies (Chris Lori concepts here).
Also, this happened on a Friday, why did we get such a bounce during the NYO? Because all of those stops were rest right below that 1.2880 level. All of those guys who were long from 1.28 or less will have trailed their SL up. So while all of those are being sold because their SL gets tagged, the banks will be buying them up, causing price to shoot back up again.
Also, we gapped down during Sundays trading, price will try and fill those gaps, before the gap was filled entirely, one more run down was made to take out the stops resting below the asian range low (10th Dec). This was the OTE/Turtle Soup style entry I used.
I posted the analysis for this trade a while back, Ill try and dig up the post and you can see my reasons for it. But this is why I was still overall bullish.
If we had seen a bigger push below that key 1.2880 and not seen such a rejection at this level, weād be probably discussing something entirely different right now :). Literally 2.5 pips (1.28775 was the low on my feed) below the 1.2880 figure and boom, back up it went. As ICT says, if they are coming back for the stops, theyāre gonna make it worthwhile.
Also, because price was retracing close to that 1.2880 low, we can afford to use a smaller SL, with lower risk. Say 1% with a 15 pip SL. That means, all price has to do is move up 15 pips and weāve obtained a 1:1 Reward to Risk, and if we hit 30 pips, even better again. Price actually moved all the way up to 1.3080 without really retracing at all, so that is quite an impressive R:R ratio @ 1% risk!
Yeah, misread your chart - thought you went short on the ote at 14.45.
Not a good idea to buy when price is pulling away from major resistance, also bad time of day to enter, also bad time of year - loads of engineering in thinner markets - notice where itās stopped - yesterdayās low to todayās high - fib on that and we have ote buy.
Also at central pivot, also at big fig , also hammer on 15min - would I still buy that with live - no way.
big fat candles. price will reach down to 1.30 hopefully, for a decent long.
PPF, the description of this thread as a rowdy busy pub is pretty spot on. As long as I get the corner bar stool and everyone knows my name!
jonnycab, thanks for the good explanation:) that makes a lot of sense 
A strong retracement indicates a likely reversal. Be careful with the longs. The cable has a low yield now indicating weakness.
Jonnycab you sound like a pro. Very good explanations.
yeah. could the barman bring me an S&P index please? I havenāt found any just with the daily timeframe. but Iād like to look at it in smaller.
Dodge, your sign works well in NU and AU too.
Thanks, I dunno about sense, but its what I was seeing in the charts
Ha! Well things are coming together, but it is still early days! I think the reason for it (besides ICTs excellent material) is focusing on one pair only (another ICT suggestion for newbies) and being more disciplined in when I open trades (I was a bit lax on this at the start). Iāve been solely on the EUR/USD now for over a month (I posted up about this before) and its amazing the extra info you start to pull from it by just looking at the one chart. It also means I dont have to think as much :p. Its also good to have a place were you can dump some analysis and charts and have people cast their eye over it.
The focus is definitely a lot sharper now. Simply plotting S&R + key higher timeframe levels for USDX and GBP/USD is more than good enough to allow you to make good progress on the EUR/USD. It will more than cover an ambitious 80 pips a week goal if you had such a thing! Im still aiming for 30!
I am convinced that 1 Hour structure has broken downwards in this move. Not a ITL but a STL at 8:00 this morning. Will be looking to short tomorrow should the opportunity arise. Never know perhaps today was the high of the week.
Iām always looking to see price run away from the weekly pivot at the start of the week so it can come back and touch it. Weāre a little far now and it may not make it but we have a 70% chance of hitting it every week.
Hey folksā¦ this next video is a whopper! :eek:
Sheās going to be a bit uploading still lol.
Duration is 1:45 minsā¦ yesā¦ 15 minutes short of two hours.
You wanted Directional Biasā¦ it takes time to cover. Soon as itās online if you donāt mind posting the link Iād appreciate it. Going to bed for now. I will update the second post with the link and post a post here in the morning when it viewable. The net is running very slow in my area and possible last minute online shopping eating up the bandwidth. However, it is on its way.
Prepare yourself for a long walk. :57:
[B]I am so glad this internet thing works and your article really helped me. Might take you up on that home advice you.
You know its hard to take you serious when you say dont try and pick tops and bottomsā¦
Hey everybody, remember that OTE is an entry signal. Stinger, grail and reflection patterns are also entry signals, meaning you donāt need OTE to get in. If a grail or stinger show up or reflection, it is okay to just get in, (though reflections will often have their own OTE or turtle soup on the smaller TF to mark entry).
Any OTE on any TF is a much safer entry because the R/R is better than chasing price. OTE in line with market structure greatly enhances the likelihood of a winner. OTE + market structure + kill zone time = very, very high probability trade. Or since we start from biggest to smallest it would be
- Market structure - bias determination
- Kill zone - odds enhancer
- OTE - as the final entry signal.
Hey everybody, I just watched ICTās recent video and he mentioned thereās some nuggets in his first thread āwhat everyā¦ā He mentioned that, I believe, thereās videos there that arenāt in the first page of that thread. I found the thread and thereās a thousand pages to it. I think you know where Iām going with this :51:
Iām hoping someone has those videos that they can post so I donāt have to go through all the 1000 pages. Also, please, if that same person or someone else has any videos, webinars, etc on this thread that are not on the first page of this thread, I would greatly appreciate it as well if they can post that too.
Thank you all so much in advance