Someone posted a new index of the ICT videos…I thought it was paterma but looking through his latest post I do not see it. I saw it yesterday on my phone app and did not bookmark it and now I cant find it. The index had the videos that have no names labeled with titles like Grail Trade, Retraction Trade (I think that was what it was called) ect. Can someone please post the link to this new index. I’m thinking it was an entirely new thread but not sure.
Remember SMT divergence is a trend breaking indicator. At the 12:08 marker you would imagine on the left side of the chart (not shown) that we have been in a good up trend, making HH and HL. When these pairs finally change direction, one of them will break market structure first and it could be either pair. In the scenario he presents, it is the cable that dives first failing to make the HH as the fiber does. If at a key S/R, this is a very strong indication that both pairs are about to tank. The divergence occurs because one or two (of the 15 or so total) deep pockets has to take the fist position short, this time it was on the cable and it creates a little crack in the correlation. The other banks see the key S/R and quickly get in line with the leader and correlation continues again. To answer your questions concisely - both are getting sold, yes the fiber has a judas swing but big dollars in the cable first is what created the SMT divergence (in his example). We get short and hope big dollars also move the fiber.
I think the type 1 and 2 divergence is explained pretty well in his short term trading video but he also mentions those terms in their “also-known-as” forms. Google that and you’ll see it. If you look back a few pages in this thread, someone posted great type 1 and 2 divergence screen shots and stinger shots.
Instead of the indicator, better to get the actual USDX chart.
Start here Babypips School
When through with babypips school continue here:
What Every New & Or Aspiring Forex Trader… Still Wants To Know
And then move on accordingly… You now have the material which you must go through…
Think of the material more as a guide on how to analyse the markets, which you can then use to build your own strategy - depending on the type of trader you are, and which topics you have the best grasp of. The methods and tools that are taught by ICT employ both fundamental analysis (interest rates, etc…) and technical (Fibs, S&R, etc…).
Awesome…I found it.
Here is the link incase anyone wants to refer back…excellent work perterma.
Maybe it was Clint’s post yesterday - he has a great thread with ICT glossary, he has a link to it his post.
My note taking reviews are complete - am now re-writing and tidying it up- away for New Year - aiming for posting it up next weekend.
Have been doing Fiber analysis following the MM video.
Seasonally fiber tends to make a low mid february so following that premise that means we have reached a mid term high at 1.33xx and should be seeing a pullback from here. Have identified 3 areas to which we could pullback as in below screenshot. Would like to substantiate this against COT reporting but having difficulties in getting a proper reading from barchart website. does anybody have a proper screenshot of COT and any opinions as to which zone the fiber would pullback to (or disagreeing with pullback premise?)?
Pullback would actually fall nicely in line with fundamentals i.e. going over the cliff which would give, at least short term, a sufficient scare to encourage USD strength.
:59:
As stated above there were some examples posted a few pages back, including real trades, start at post #4101. There is also a comprehensive Babypips resource (of course :59: ) on trading divergence. The Cheat Sheet will explain the four in a concise manner.
Furthering my thinking and hopefully adding a better quality picture. To maintain ITH market structure we should not see a break of the 1.2866/67 level thus retrace should stop at OTE around the 1.30 level.
Thank you very much!
COT for GBP shows commercials at a yearly short extreme and a slight decline in new shorts. The Commitment of Traders Bible says we want to start looking to get short when they stop getting short, since their shorts will turn the train around. Non-commercials are at a yearly long net and they are the ones holding the bag when the trend stops. Maybe we’re looking for a sustained weakness in the GBP? Open Interest is at a 6mo high but has stopped increasing.
Bond yields are still very low compared to EUR and USD. There is some obvious divergence too.
The EUR COT is not at any extreme, so inconclusive. Treasury notes are all inconclusive - not at extremes or spiking or falling OI.
Seasonally, the GBP isn’t due for a low until mid march-april and generally wanders down in January until April. I’m feeling bearish but what do I know?
Your outline is posted on the second post of this thread… I will resume with the material in the afternoon. I apologize for the delay, I’ve simply had the wind knocked out of me. I will regain my momentum… just roll with me… we will get to the material.
I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas with your family. My time will be spent with the recordings… so email questions please bear with me as well.
Thanks again
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No apologies necessary, Michael. Take as much time as you need, to deal with the issues confronting you.
Come back when you can. We’ll all be here. In the meantime, you will be in our thoughts and prayers.
Thanks Michael, the breadth and detail of your work is truly staggering.The amount of time that you spend on ‘us’ is very much appreciated.
When I first started on your material, about eight months ago, l I must admit that it was hard going. Now that I understand ‘from where you are coming from’, as well as your terminology, I look forward to each instalment and find each an enjoyment due to at least one more marble dropping into a slot in my brain. Nevertheless, take your time, your personal and family life obviously takes priority.
All the best for you and family for 2013 and beyond.
PS - I also like your taste in music
Dear Michael, Appreciate all your efforts to help us despite the difficult time in your life! All the prayers with you!
ICT recently (few weeks ago at the most i think) made a video that he drew attention to the cot reports, can anyone remember which video this was, i would like to watch it again but cant remember which one it was. Thanks in advance guys.
In answering a tweet ref oi and expiry of contracts he made reference to the need to view with the cot.
At the start of the video here (Dec 6)
Inner Circle Trader 12/06/12 - YouTube
The last teaching video on the subject was Sep 14 here:
Even though I’m looking at fiber I concur as seasonal chart shows decline into february and German yields diverging lower.
Can I suggest going through Larry Williams Secrets of the COT? ICT mentions a couple highlights in his video but this book is the one to read and has more insight about reading the COT report. The COT bible was okay but not as trader helpful LW’s book. Understanding open interest and who’s interest and what the commercials are up to is the real key to the book and ICT doesn’t get into depth on the subject.
According to LW’s method of reading the COT, we would be expecting a strong down trend and down trends tend to be stronger in general than up trends. Everyone do their own analysis but I’m in a sell program since market structure has confirmed a break to the down.