btw. i took the second reach to that level at the end of LOKZ. ote within ote, 15m ms broken to downside, major ksr on my chart (right at 1.3287, because the first swing high broke that to the upside, this ote is perfectly at the ksr of 1.3287), also last weeks high at 1.3283. ah, also marked that level as a possible D of a gartley 222 pattern (dunno if the terminology is right, just started looking at that and trying it out a week ago).
Shorted last night during Asian session on fiber at 1.3300 for 25 pips on demo. US brokers closed until this morning. Iām hoping to scale in on the way down. This is Wednesday and possibly weāve made the high for the week, though last week, we didnāt change direction until Thursday.
Just something I found on Youtube from Larry Williams.
Since Asia was greater than 40 pips, this would be a no trade day for ICT. Iām flat for the day in the live account to see what will happen. Market structure is fully bullish. If we close below the WPP, it could be the sell signal Iām waiting for. Lets see how the day develops.
took second profit at +50, rest got stopped out at +18.
is this concept with high and low of the week always true?
on h1 weāve been in a range for 8 days now, going on the 9th. if high/low of the week is a fractal that works like the Judas for the high/low of the day, do we not need a trending market on frame of H1 and higher to apply the concept?
'm not entirely clear how this is supposed to work.
What is WPP? I looked on the glossary and could not find it.
thx
i took full off at 3235 on gap close, 26 pips, and reshort at 76 on deep retracement and test of wR1. holding a bearish view at the momentā¦
could be āweekly pivot pointā
As I understand itā¦
70% or better of any week will have the major market turn at Tuesday or Wednesday morning, so not it will not be always true. The conditions when this doesnāt happen might be evident in the range expansion, range contraction principle or looking at S/R targets than need to be reached first. If we are going to rocket up, we still need a little wick to get orders piled up so weād see the wick on Monday and the turn on Tuesday and the other wick is made on Friday afternoon. If we make a doji or a pinbar week, weād see the turn often on Wednesday after hitting the S/R or entering a region that previously saw consolidation and we pull out of it quickly.
My thinking is: You canāt go in one direction forever. You have to distribute and accumulate in every time frame.
Iām also very bearish on GBP and think we are in a street money stop run so Iām waiting to be proved right or wrong on my bias. I have a bearish bias most of the time unfortunately but this time I think thereās good reason for it. Asia moved last night and got everyone long so it makes a perfect set up to run the market down for the banks.
Yep, Weekly Pivot Point
Iām suspecting that the latest ārisk offā rally is merely to get the SM positioned. Follows is some FA
Miles to go before markets can breathe
by Stephen Bartholomeusz
Published 12:41 PM, 31 Dec 2012
While thereās an understandable preoccupation with the negotiations occurring in the US as America teeters on the edge of the fiscal cliff, that is in some respects a distraction from the larger problems still confronting the US and the global economy.
Despite the compromise US politicians have cobbled together to avoid the recession-inducing impacts of tax increases and spending cuts that would otherwise automatically occur on New Yearās Day, the larger issue is encapsulated with the ānextā deadline, that mid-February date when the US runs into its legislated $US16.4 trillion debt ceiling.
The reality for the US, and the longer-term challenge that underpins the short-term wrangling over taxes and spending, is that its public debt levels are unsustainable. Somehow the US needs to develop a long-term plan to reduce its borrowings to more sustainable levels without undermining a central element of that plan ā the ability of the US economy to grow ā in the meantime.
More broadly, just as the US is still, after more than four years, wrestling with a response to the structural issues the global financial crisis laid bare ā and indeed exacerbated ā Europe is in even worse shape.
It might appear at face value that the eurozone ended 2012 in better shape than it started it. At the beginning of the year there were very real and well-founded fears that the eurozone would fracture, with horrific consequences.
It didnāt, which is a good thing. It remains extraordinarily fragile and held together, however, with band aids. It was the European Central Bankās flooding of the markets with cheap liquidity and its declaration that it would do āwhatever it takes,ā primarily through purchases of sovereign bonds, that calmed markets.
In reality, however, Europe has spent the past four years mainly just kicking an extremely battered can down a lengthening road. There has been little, if any structural progress and the deep fissures within the eurozone economies remain.
It was instructive that, more than four years after the crisis began, eurozone finance ministers were beating their chests in mid-December after agreeing a plan to hand control over their larger banks to a common bank supervisor. The ECB will supervise about 200 banks ā from 2014.
One of the issues that has complicated Europeās response to the crisis has been the level of entanglement between weak, under-capitalised banks and over-leveraged sovereigns, which created a self-reinforcing and quite destructive cycle.
Where the US āfixedā its banking system, at considerable initial cost to its taxpayers, the Europeans hoped that time and the ECB would repair their banks. Well, the banks arenāt fixed and under the plan for banking union the eurozoneās rescue funds canāt be directly injected into troubled banks until the new supervisor is firmly in place.
The ECBās policies have bought time and eased the sense of panic and desperation that was abroad at the start of the year but the eurozone is no closer to dealing with the structural challenges of 17 different economies in 17 different conditions ā most of them distressed.
With all of Europe sliding back into recession, its banking sector contracting in order to try to improve its balance sheet without raising massive amounts of new capital, and no answer to how to deal with the depressed condition of the southern European economies other than to try to continue to buy time, the eurozone is no closer to a structural solution to the issues laid bare by the crisis than it was a year, or two, or three ago.
A messy, increasingly tense political, social and demographic backdrop means it is almost inevitable Europe is going to remain in a parlous and dangerous condition for a very long time.
What the central banksā policies in the US and Europe have done with their unconventional monetary policies is triggered a global currency war that penalises the stronger economies and, as they intended, created a global search for higher-returning ā and higher risk ā assets than government bonds in the hope that might stimulate some growth and lessen risk aversion.
Thatās been good for global equity markets, which had a good 2013 (the US, European and Australian markets all chalked up double-digit gains) and was a factor in the flow of funds into Australian dollar assets.
Ultimately, however, the longer the loose money policies are sustained, the greater the likelihood of eventual unintended, but unpleasant, consequences. There are, however, no obvious policy alternatives and it is probable ā indeed explicit in the US ā that the monetary policy settings will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
In the absence of any real recovery and faced with negative real returns and devaluing currencies it is not surprising that institutions, companies and households remain wary and defensive.
That is, however, the other complicating factor for global regulators and the global economy.
While growth might be a path, indeed perhaps the only path, to reducing the scale of the fiscal challenges to something more manageable and creating something resembling stability within the major developed economies, the degree of risk aversion hasnāt significantly reduced and probably wonāt until it becomes clear that policymakers in the US and Europe actually have policy pathways towards that longer-term stability."
link Miles to go before markets can breathe | Stephen Bartholomeusz | Commentary | Business Spectator
know exactly what you mean with the bearish bias most of the time. i used to keep monitors rotated 90 degrees and look at the market as left/right instead at up/down, just to eliminate that gravity bias :18:
Two more FA links for those that follow such stuff
Happy New Cliff! | Edward Luce, Financial Times | Commentary | Business Spectator
No engine damage from a fiscal pothole | Stephen Koukoulas | Commentary | Business Spectator
Well thatās day one of the new year trading done with, Ā£617.48 banked :53:
During London KZ my bias was short, wanted to enter at 83, daily resistance, but had to leave for work, so just got in at 77. Got out manually for 41pips as we reached support.
Also did a few binaries for fun money and to feed the gambler inside of me!
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Yep yep, I had the same idea, was in short @ 1.3273 during the NYO. OTE zone from LO high to the low.
Bias was bearish due to that rather inefficient run up during Asia and the fact that we didnt make a higher high during London.
I still think weāll be consolidating between 1.3180 and 1.3280, but I think 1.3220 would be a nice place for final TP which would fill in the lowest part of that rally up. Just taken half off so far @ 30 pips.
Overall, still bullish based on MS. I would like to see a break towards 1.3140 if we are to start on a bearish trend.
yes, looking at same 3220 for second tp, support and second step of measured move coming into 3218
You must be having some really good capital thereā¦
and thatās how gambling becomes a respected occupation! :59:
ha-ha Hoping to quit my day job and go full time by the end of the year, we shall seeā¦