I’m trying to figure out if we have a Market Structure breakdown on the Daily Cable. My thinking is that we are still in a Buy program for the Daily because Market Structure has not broken down yet. This could just be a pullback to the OTE long entry…correct? Could someone please elaborate your thoughts on this.
Posted this earlier. For me there are three possible zones for a retrace:
- 1.2970 - 1.3035 OTE from your arrow.
- 1.28 - 1.2910 this would break MS on the daily as it breaks the fib from point 1
- pulled from the long term bottom around 1.20
For me this is seasonal weakness and expect a retrace to 1 at the max before EUR strengthens again. All of this needs to be proven by PA of course
That looks like the Fiber 
Anyway, if you are talking about the Fiber, then short term, we’ve broken the lows around 1.3140, so market structure is bearish. Longer term, yes - we are still bullish as we havent broken the low you’ve indicated in your chart, we could see a pullback to that 1.30 OTE zone before we head back up.
As I mentioned a few posts back, still bullish long term, but for this short term, we have higher timeframe (4H/1H) confirmation that we are bearish.
Also, the fact that the Cable made a significantly higher high before moving lower and as you stated, the Fiber did not, SMT divergence? (Clear as day on the Daily TF)
Guys question 4u. Looking at GBP Daily we see that MS is bullish but we have a swing(fractal) forming on resistance and we have OTE on another side. So what in this case u do? Go long on OTE with MS bullish or sell with fractal considering tommorrow will be sell day?
oops…your correct…this is fiber.
The 4h is still in a bullish market structure as well isn’t it?
thanks for the responses
Hi Jonnycab,
Why do you consider 1.3140 for MS break instead of 1.3175 (red arrow)? trying to understand.
Hi Drone
On the 4 hour chart I have market flow breaking down at point 1 and market structure breaking down at point 2
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Yes, this is it. I would classify this as a swing point (kinda hard to spot though) as it formed a fractal before the push higher. It was also maintained during the consolidation period, but as soon as the SMT divergence occurred, I was looking for this point to be broken (I used it as my TP2 for my trade yesterday - tagged last night during Asia) to confirm that we are actually going to be bearish for the short term.
Thanks Kuzia,
Does anybody use the Trinity concept? It seems it gives a good indication of where price wants to go. On todays break of the ‘bottom’ support line it seems the 200 extension points to 1.3020 ish which is in OTE zone and some other support confluences. When (if) arriving in this area, is SMT divergence the only (best?) indicator to see whether price will bounce there?
Thanks Johnny and everyone for the quick responses…this thread rocks! :32:
1.3140 was the last fractal low to form before we started consolidating. During the consolidation we kept making higher lows from this point until we finally broke down yesterday. So I was targeting this area as an ultimate sign of a breakdown.
I used the other lows (such as the area you marked with the red arrow) as short term confirmation that we are definitely going in the right direction. Once they gave way, the 1.3140 was the last area of interest.
I was trying to locate a key low that has been maintained up until now. Should we break it, we may have a larger reversal in the works to the downside.
Check this thread for a good summary:
I don’t really follow it anymore, but when I see high volume correlate with what I’ve learned from ICT, I’ll pay attention to it.
Short EUR/USD, will post screenshots and analysis soon…
Thanks for the replies gents…
Not necessarily the best, but it is up there. 
And most definitely not the only!
Ideally you want to see SMT divergence with the co-related pair and/or USDx (on 15m TF or higher), plus some oscillator (of your choice) divergence on min 1 hour chart. [U]Then[/U] wait for the market structure to brake in your anticipated direction (on 15m minimum, but better on 1H to be on the safe side), wait for the retracement (minimum 40 pips) and enter in the OTE area (or 50% depends where most confluences are stacked).
and thats about it.
I’m stalking that same 1.3 level too, btw.
Hope this helps a 'lil bit.
:41:
Sorry for the noobs questions…
- What’s the difference between market structure and market flow?
- When we can consider MF or MS broken?
Just to clarify because of the above posts… Many thanks all
Kuzia’s post earlier had a screenshot explaining it. On the Android at the minute which isn’t good when viewing the pictures as doesn’t have the zoom but the screenshot is from the following thread.
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/45248-ict-market-flow-structure-help-please.html
Take a peek, hope it helps!
Tommy
thanks for the link!