Oh, okay 
So you wont take any trades at all before you see that event unfold, or untill you see some reason why it might never unfold?
Some reasons why I expect a reversal, apart from profit taking by very pleased bank traders,
Price at top of rising channel, lovely clean area at 3393, loads of stops sitting just up there, 3400 big fig (although 3485 also looking tempting)
In Chris Lori terminology - price inefficiency of last few days requires to be re-visited (retrace).
Bearish divergence in 1hr, 4hr and daily on stochs.
SMT divergence on 1 hr (from Jan 2nd to today) fibre/cable - much higher high in fibre, cable was nor interested in following, the banks were pricing the fibre up hard.
No stoch div on cable either.
And also - US 10 yr jumped this afternoon - not the usdx
Sorry if some of this has been posted already - it takes me that long sorting these images.
Good info! In addition to that, Cable market flow has already broken to the downside on H1 H4 D1. Iâm now on Cable short at OTE
After the Wolfe Wave Video came out, that changed everything for me. It took a few days to train the eyes and learn all the rules to spot the pattern. Now I see them everywhere, on any time frame, on anything that is traded.
Here is an example looking at GBPAUD. At first I thought I was losing it lol. But the R:R is always more than 3:1 with these set ups.
What caught my attention with the Wolfe Waves is how you will find stopping volume and STO DIV at W5 almost always.
W5 is in OTE, 1-4 Target perfectly aligned with OTE Sweet Spot.
Is this what ICT means by symmetry? 
Plan the trade, trade the plan.
I sure hope the cable pushes a little higher so I can add to my shorts lol.
I have been watching the YEN futures COTS report for the last few weeks now , since the COMs have been highest net long. Have been waiting and waiting for signs of a reversal , especially since there was a marked drop in OI 5 weeks back. Because of the COTS and drop in OI I have been scared to go long on any JPY pair and missed out on quite amazing moves.
Now the COTS report this week and the week before shows a reduction in net longs. However , the yen futures have continued to plummet ( means JPY pairs at highest highs).
So Michael , Id appreciate an insight here. Especially since, in your last doodle session, you had mentioned that yen futures would fall even more. So [I][B]what am I reading wrong [/B][/I]in the COTS ? This is very important to me , so Id appreciate any help from someone more learned than me.
Michael ?
regards
I can see that a lot of things point towards a reversal of some kind! But, werenât all of those things also present this friday, when price broke right through the 1.33 level on the fiber? I mean, how did you know that the reversal wouldnât take place this friday, at the 1.33 level? Iâm asking because I went short at the 1.33 level, because of all the things you explain in your post, but price didnât really give a damn about that level! :33:
I would really like to understand how not to get so beaten up every time there might be a reversal! I really suck at those times! :55:
Should I perhaps instead not be so quick to jump into a trade, and instead forget the idea of getting in right around the top, but wait for price to actually react to a certain resistance level, and then break marketstructure, before I could then trying to capture the rest of what will hopefully be a new trend?
I canât see the broke on the 4 HR⌠Just broke on 1 HR and Daily, that is more than enough, but I canât see it on 4HR. Am I missing something?
Couldnât agree more, being introduced to these Wolfe Waves was really fascinating for me too!
The most appealing bit that grabbed my attention was the very high Reward : Risk ratio⌠it seams even 10:1 is easily achievable! :53:
And from what I can see, if entering right in the formation of point 5, placing 10 pip SL is more than enoughâŚ
My problem, thought is I cant see them on the charts (yet), not even one, had to use the very examples ICT gave, mark 'em on the chart and study, couldnât find my own⌠Plus, determining point 1 seams very ââiffyâââŚ
Actually, from what I can see the Wolfe Waves [U][B]precede[/B][/U] Market Structure and Flow
see the crude diagram below
on the left side we have an downward channel with lower lows and lower highs (points 1,2,3,4 and 5), so MS and MF are bearish, the move from 5 to 6 brakes the flow/structure and turns it bullish. Then with the âânormalââ ICT tools we would wait to enter the retracement from point 6 or this would be point 7 on our chart.
So, using the WW method we can anticipate pretty accurately where the ITLow will form (point 5) and would enter with very low riskâŚ
Also, from the very few chart examples I looked at, point 5 seams to form bang on the ââSweet Spotââ of HTF OTE.
I might have all this wrong (still in early stages), but to me this Wolfe Waves combined with the other ICT tools really is next level stuff, to enter right at the birth of the new trend, to pick the top/bottom with such accuracy! WOW!
all I need to do now is backtest and study, study and backtest, but this looks very, very promising to say the least.
Thanks again ICT to introducing us to another little gem!
p.s. Michael, the 20 minute video on WW doesnt seam adequate enough, taking into account the significance (well, in my eyes anyway) of this method. Iâd love to see more on this topic.
What deciding factors were there that made you take the short trade @ 1.33? How many of your trading rule confluences lined up in order to tell you that you should trade this move? Look at the day youâre trading on as well. ICT recommends trading Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday (I tend to stick to these days, unless we get something sweet on a Monday).
PureMuscle said it a few posts back, wait for the thing to reverse, then think about trading it. As numerous posters in this thread have mentioned before, patience is the killer here. Not giving the market time to react will be your undoing, because you are ultimately guessing. Whos to say it wont rally up to 1.34 next week before dropping back down towards 1.32?
So, just sit on your hands until you are very satisfied the market has reversed and is doing what you anticipated, and allowing you to trade with the trend. Ask yourself, what have you lost by not being in the market?
Just dont rush thingsâŚ
Patience is the hardest thing to learn really! But you are right, I rushed in, because I got bored with waitingâŚ
Iâll try to have more patience next week, and wait for the market to give me the required signals before doing anything!
I also find waiting quite hard because Iâm not really that experienced with all of the concepts yet, so I find it very hard to come up with longer term trade ideas like you guys! So a lot of times, I donât really know what to wait forâŚ
You are all talking about lower prices next week, but I wonât be trying to capture the high, I donât have the skills for that! :54: So I will be waiting to see a break in marketstructure to bearish, before trying to look for shorts. But, on what timeframe will a change in marketstructure be âvalidâ, so to speak? I mean, do I need to see it on the 15m, 1h, 4h, daily, or what?
Thank all you guys for answering my stupid questions! Itâs of great help to me, and hopefully other newbies who are just lurking around!
I dinât trade EU on friday but i just wanted to know if anyone went long ? What were the confluences ? as i couldnât find any myselfâŚ
This is why a weekend analysis is important, even from a very basic perspective of marking up key S&R levels, inside-the-range levels, higher time frame fibs, etcâŚ
It allows you to map out/anticipate what you think might happen. If your analysis starts to line up with what is actually happening, then start preparing your trade. Whether the trade is good or bad doesnt matter, you stalked your levels, waiting for price to react and traded it. Equally, if the complete opposite happens to what you anticipated, then so what? You arent in the market, you havent lost any money and youâve hopefully learned why price did what it did.
It will take months for this stuff to click and for you to become comfortable with your own analysis.
If you think about whats being said: lower prices. The high or low for the week typically forms on a Tuesday or Wednesday, so this may be a good indication as to how you may want to analyze/anticipate price action this coming week. Will we need an initial run up into mid-week then a sell off? When you start combining all these things together you can start to build up quite a high probability trade idea. It can get confusing and it feels like youâre juggling a lot of information, but again, time and patience, stick at it!
Go back and watch the trade plan development series video on MS for a better explanation of what time frames you should be looking for MS to break on depending on the type of trader you are.
I usually like to see a break on the 1H TF for my style of trading, but its really up to youâŚ
I dont think your questions are stupid, they are all very valid points, they just take a lot of time for you to see the answers
Iâm by no means an expert on this, but two key points I noted for Friday were;
The Fiber:
1: We were just short of the highs set in December, Michael tells us to look & âsee where the market is trying to reach forâ or words to that effect.
In this case I think itâs reasonable to predict taking out the highs from Dec 19th.
Now itâs just below the March 27th highs, so Iâm asking myself, Could it still push up another 50 pips?
2: On Friday morning the vast majority of positions were short!! How did I know this?
Go to MyFxbook.com & once logged in scroll towards the bottom of the page & they tell you where their users (street money) are positioned. 70% were short on the Fiber.
Sounds counter intuitive to go long, but when you look at it from the banks point of view they are after the street money so they will push the price up yet further to take out their stops.
Oanda also show you their clients âopen positionsâ which were overall short.
Just my theory, correct me if Iâm wrong 
mostwantedpip posted some info regarding the rally on Friday: 301 Moved Permanently
Divergence between the EURX and USDX.
i just thought iâd share a nice analogy out of larry williams âlong term secrets to short term tradingâ:
âGracie is a world-class athlete, he is the guy in those Ultimate Fight pay for view TV shows. In case
you havenât seen one, they are for-real fights, no boxing gloves and just about anything is legal from
kicking to gouging. This is for real violence. What is interesting about Gracie is that in over 100 fights he
has never been beaten. That is never as in never, ever. By anyone, boxers, kickers, elbow punchers, Tai
kickers. No one has been able to beat this guy.
Considering that most of these would-be tough guys weigh from 225 to 300 pounds, Gracieâs
accomplished victories are even more awesome when you find out he weighs about 180 pounds and looks
better in a Mr. Rogers sweater than fighting attire. You would never know the guy is a giant killer. Since I
am fascinated with fighters and winners (they have a lot in common with speculators), I have followed this
guyâs career and listened intently to his words of wisdom.
In one interview, these television thugs were asked if they felt any fear going onto these fights
because, after all, they are real-guys have been maimed, lost their sight, broken bones, suffered numerous
severe concussions, and at least one fighter has died. All the tough guys machine-gunned out their male
macho line about having no fear of anyone or anything.
That is all of them but Gracie. He freely admitted he is scared to death every time he enters the ring.
He went on to say he uses that fear to his advantage as it enables him to respect his opponent and not take
reckless action or deviate from his personal fighting style. [B]âWithout fear,â he said, âyou cannot win as fear
pumps me up for the fight but also assures that I will not lose control. What we do is very dangerous; my
best protection is to be afraid so I protect myself in all the ways of my craft.â[/B]
Like Gracie, I have an immense fear of trading, I have seen people wiped out, losing all they owned
from poor speculation. Some went bankrupt, some really did go crazy, and several killed themselves. I
suspect all these people had one thing in common: they did not fear the markets.
I think you need to fear the markets and fear yourself.
Although the markets are frightening, the emotions you and I interject into trading are downright
scary. [B]Without fear, there is no respect[/B]; if you do not respect the markets and fear yourself, you will
become one more dead body on the long trail of commodity market casualties scattered across the land.â
i feel that i, like probably a lot of others (i am especially adressing those who donât have the patience to wait for a turn, break in ms and ote, instead enter totally counter trend) have not enough fear and respect. the market is going to eat you alive if you donât. for me personally i think the problem is, that i donât have enough money at stake. i am trading with just a couple houndred euros, that are not really enough to tickle that fear instinct in me. this results in myself taking trades, that are not as âperfectâ (yes i know, there are no perfect trades, lets say trades with not as much confluences ;)) as other setups. i can pretty much identify these âbadâ trades, thus i risk even less on those (like 0.5% or so). the problem is, however, risiking 0.5% only makes it worse, because hey, i canât lose as much. itâs ok! but no! it sucks.
i for my part made a decision. best thing would be to just stop those trades. but thatâs not how itâs going to work for me. my plan is now to save some money for 3 months or so. in the meanwhile i am still going to prove myself that i can be profitable, even with these âbadâ trades. so without any excuse, i need to have a profit booked on my account in 3 months (aiming for approximately 20%). then i will double my account so that the fear will kick back in and thus i will stop taking these little f**k trades and finally get totally serious. the seeding is over. time to get serious and start harvesting.
itâs all cool to start with small capital to learn some methods, start dealing with emotions and all. but after 2 years of live trading, i finally need to take it to the next level.
p.s.: i wonât advice ANYONE else to do it that way. it is my personal decision, tailored from me to match my personality. i need fear and pressure to work correctly.
this post is mostly for my own personal benefit.
Esser you are asking some questions that only with experience you will understand that. Like ICT said submit to time. Maby it will take you 2-3 years but eventualy you will get there. This is not casino, noone gets rich quick hereâŚ
Here is a trick that I use to find Wolfe Waves.
2 will always be the significant high or low of the count. Start your count there.
If 2 is the high, 3 must be lower than 1
If 2 is the low, 3 must be higher than 1.
1 will be the point prior to 2 that has been exceeded by 3. (Think of a 123 pattern with the exception that 3 now exceeds 1)
Once you have 1, 2 and 3 identified, looking for 4 and 5 is easy.
When looking for 4, parallel a line from 1 to 3 and place it on 2 to create a channel (if 4 breaks the channel, wolfe wave is no good)
Basically the line drawn from 1-3 and 2-4 must converge as a wedge in the future. If the channel is expanded, no wolfe wave.
Once you have 5 in the scopes it will usually break through the 1-3 line as a judas. Watch for high volume and stochastic divergence here. ICT entry patterns will be seen here also.
Parallel a line from 2-4 and add it to 3. The space between the 1-3 line and the 2-4 parallel line added to 3 is the sweet spot.
I fade half of my entry in this zone and add the other half when the trade kicks in.
The wolfe wave is a rising or falling wedge. Look for that pattern and you will see Wolfe Waves everywhere. It took me a few days.
I will get a step by step with pics later and postâŚ
where did you get that point from? definitely not always the case with the examples ict showed in his vids.
Looking at the examples with the rules on the wolfewave web. The examples show the apex which is used to predict Estimated time of Arrival and estimated Price Arrival. So it is a must as far as I can see it. Not paying $3000 to find out the answer lol. It is obvious that this concept works on expanded channels, but for my preference, I am sticking to rising and falling wedges, which is the pattern that Wolfe is trading.