Wolfe Wave EURJPY M5?
looks good to me. Friday seems to offer some big moves late NY session.
Trading Support and Resistance:
gbp-jpy no frills, no neural :54: network trade, with an update from yesterdayâs chart and close out for weekend. entry at 144.15, exits along the way to max tp 152 points
Have a look at the 4hr fibre - draw a horiz on the recent equilibrium of 3285, draw another on 3402 - they are the 2 lines that have been on my 4hr for some time ( I had nothing in between) - shows the value of horiz S/R
Hey Peterma,
Your 10yr T note trend line the other day caught my attention. I started comparing the 2, 5, and 10yr T notes. All of them ran into resistance at a trendline. Question do you take anything from the 2yr hitting the trend line days before the 5 and 10yr. and then breaking down? Also, the resistance for the 2yr was very clean.Can you take this as an early warning of what was going to unfold?
The fiber seems to be stuck between 1.3400 and 1.3280 for the time being⌠What do you think will happen next week?
I would say that marketstructure on 4h and up, still looks bullish, but if we break below 1.3240, I would consider MS to be bearish.
We could also perhaps see stops being hunted, and have the low of the week form around tuesday or wednesday, and then see price trying to reach for, or above, 1.34 again after thatâŚ
But what do you guys think? 
Hey IbePippin,
Very nice but how did you know this resistance will hold?
thank you,
There is no question that the bonds behave exactly like all other asset classes as far as TA is concerned.
Your question re the different US bonds is very pertinent - this is a work in progress , to date, whilst intraday trading I have found the 10yr very effective in intraday trading.
ICT points out that divergence among the US bonds can be significant, it can herald shifts ahead - my focus at this time in my learning curve is intraday - itâs where I am most comfortable.
Maybe some of you guys could take this on - look to see differences in the US bonds, can they help us on the longer term focus.
When ICT coined the name Smart Money Tool ( in my mind I call it the Street Money Tool) he did it for a reason - the âsmartâ money are smart because they can move the forex market, they are big, they are good at what they do, they get paid well but they have a chink in their armour - correlation - they cannot move everything at once - it is up to us to explore and exploit that chink.
They call us âdumbâ and maybe have a great laugh at our expense - but they ARE predictable - look at todayâs fibre.
What time did fibre turn south - when the smart guys got into their seats - quick call to Asia - well done guys, left those stops above intact.
What time, after bringing price back up, and getting many of us long - because all the indies were saying bullish,bullish, did price suddenly turn south and get the sell stops - yep - off to lunch early - (canât leave it until 13.00 because you will not get a seat) - this is the very reason I exited my long when I did.
What time did price hit a rock (at a pre-defined level) - yep - itâs Friday - no working late - pub (bar) evening - ever been in a City of London bar of a Friday evening - packed from early - oh - short from 3335 on a break out?, didânt take profit like ICT teaches at 30 pips?, maybe held out for yesterdayâs low to get tagged, stop above - theyâve read it all.
So ,after the rant, the bond market is another little tool that we can use so that WE become the Smart Money and they can stay the big money.
yes, exact same thing in fiber.
two main lines and price moves from one SR to another. letâs say lines are at 3400 and 3285, thatâs 115 pips between the levels, and it is the same number that appeared in the gbp-jpy ranges this week. and if you were to draw yet another line 115 pips below 3285, see the result
sure,
letâs take a closer look at the HS pattern on the gbp-jpy H1 chart, see how we have the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. Left shoulder has large impulse bars on the left side, and small correction bars on the right side down. Left side of the âheadâ starts well but stops in the middle almost like an incomplete double top. Hardly recovers and makes new high on small bars, but the right side down has fast bars with expanding range. RS on the way up is just really crummy and the first bar down wipes out ten hours of bull effort. Because of all this price action, i viewed this formation as reversal.
now coming back to the entry, resistance around 144, 79% fib retrace at 143.86, stops above right shoulder taken, and time of day was last hour of NY. Low liquidity and literally no incentive for them to continue buying towards the next high 80 pips away. i didnât know for a fact, but it was very likely to hold for the next 3 hours at least, and probably go down if price action at HS didnât lie.
Funny you should ask this, I was thinking the sameâŚ
Iâm still studying everyday, always following the threads. The reason I donât post much is because im a couple of days behind in the thread, as others have said, it can alter your views on the market
I spent over a year trading the NYO but I couldnât make a profit, only break even. I canât day trade to save my life. I wanted to catch bigger moves so I started trading off the daily and I think I found my groove lol. Its a lot more relaxed, it frees up a lot of time to study and you can get some tasty pip hauls. I probably trade 5 or 6 times a month
I have my HTF bias and I wait for a three bar high or low to form on the daily to get myself inline with MS, then zoom into the hourly to find my entry, identify my level, pull a fib and look for confluences⌠I only use the OTE pattern, and sometimes the 50% fib level to enter. I canât trade LO so I just set a limit order when the three bar pattern completes, NY candle close (Oanda 5am gmt) and go to bed. Then wake up and hopefully take first profit at 30-50 pips. I take 70% off at first profit then leave the rest to reach for fib extensions. Sometimes it works, sometimes I get stopped outâŚ
Trading at those times fits around my life pretty well too. Took a break over Christmas which was nice. Iâve traded my live account to 17% which feels pretty epic, though its not a smooth equity curve lol, this is a tough business! :34:
Good luck this year everyone :57:
Tokyo Open set up
4H 4 wave in sights
4H divergence
Planning to exit at 4H OTE
Currently 4H swing low with buying pressure, stalking to short at Sweet Spot using 1H chart
Reward is 210 pips, Risk is 63 pips
I did not trade on Friday, although did note the potential Reflection Short.
Entering on the Reflection during the NYOKZ would have betted an almost immediate 45 pips iw TO at an old multilple Weekly KSR
Fiber M15 Reflection Short
So Iâve added to the old torrent. Packed some extra goodies in there. ICT (download torrent) - TPB
This is the second time that I have run into a wolfe wave after a daily swing and MS break.
I am not buying this from wave 5. I am using the target line as confluence in the OTE zone to get short.
This happened on a set up last week on GBPJPY, calling the entry to the pip before the pip haul north.
R:R to Target 2 is more than 3:1 using OTE entry stop loss placement rules.
Hey everyone, here was a pretty solid setup on Fridayâs trading, anyone else lucky enough to get in for the drop ?
after
What tool(s) did you use to pick a short entry, at the (very) top. 
ICT didnt send you guys his lessons on picking exact tops and bottoms each session??
lol that was a JOKE. But anyways⌠no new special tools or anything fancy, just good olâ divergences, S/R, time of day, big figures etc etc. I obviously didnt know it was going to be the EXACT high of the day otherwise my stop wouldnât have been so high =P ⌠that was my limit order to get in at 3395 (I was supposed to be entering while price was going the opposite way I expected) and it just so happened to stall there shortly after then fall.
Given that it is the weekend I am supposing that many are (re)setting their KSR levels.
Using too many KSRs is obviously counter-productive, as the chart would merely become a jumble of meaningless line. Interested to gain some possible new tips on how others approach this.
My Data Feed Daily candle starts from NYC (currently GMT+2 ) and my KSRs, in ranking order, as follows:
Monthly High/Low
Weekly High/Low
Asia Range High/Low today (L0)
Previous day High/Low
Figures (especially 20 and 80)
Daily High/Low
H4 High/low
Asia Range High/Low previous day (L1)
Asia Range High/Low previous day -1 (L2)
Asia Range High/Low previous day -2 (L3)
Asia Range High/Low previous day -3 (L4) (Note: Indicator extends AR from last five days)
Note: use three bar swing highs and lows on data for :
- Monthly : last year
- Weekly: last six months
- Daily: last one month
- H4: last one week
Obviously the higher the ranking and the more confluences with other KSRs, Fibs KZs, Divergence etc, the more powerful the potential entry signal. KSRs rules over all else.
Any feedback welcome.