We’re probably not in a deflationary environment but something called a dis-inflationary environment, we have inflation but it’s rising at a slower pace.
BBC News - Economy tracker: Inflation
This links a good example for the last couple of years, inflation falling but we still have inflation.
Thanks, Ill check that out!
PS. Thanks for the list over Correlations 
I just printed it out, and Im hanging it over my desk!
@longechoes THANKS. This will give me some more to work with, it´s difficult to get this stuff through your head, finally i thought I was getting it.
For those of you who are interested in commodities, Murphy suggests CRB index is heavily weighted with agricultural commodities, so we should consider other commodity indexes, such as
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index (Not influenced by weather but rather by economic trends alone)
S&P GSCI Commodity Index (Energy Based Commodity Index)
Me Too. ! ahhahaahaha
Thanks for posting this, great interview that puts a person to the name & some interesting concepts / psychology.
Part 6 ended a little messed up unfortunately…
Your very Welcome 
Seeing that video and all the achievement that Chris Lori’s accomplished over the years, I think highly of him and his judgement so therefore I am sure he makes a good judgement of ICT to include him into one of his workshop to add value into his student. Though, Chris and ICT have a different trading style…just my thought…
Missed my ideal entry (because I am an idiot). I wanted in at 1.3410, but ofcourse, no limit order placed!
Got in anyway, 8 pips shy, not great, but we’ll see how it goes. I’ll be looking to close some around 20 pips, but Im thinking 1.3380 will be first TP…
I liked this as well but decided to enter nearer the fig so my entry was 1.3397 with a stop at 1.3415 and first profit at 3367. So I haven’t hit my first tp but I am still alive and in a small profit but have not moved my stops yet. Your next post says remainder set at BE. Were you able to hit any tp points and if so, when did you take profit, and when did you move your stops? if you don’t mind me asking. Thanks.
My first TP is always 30 pips (I’m typically using a 15 or 20 pip SL, this gives me 1:1 ratio when I sell off 50%, but sometimes I’ll close at the same value as my SL, if Im not sure the trade is worth it, or potentially wrong), so the first trade today 50% was off at 1.3360. The other half was stopped out @ BE when we ran back up. Once I’ve hit TP1, I’ll generally drag the stop to BE. Especially days like today, where its quite hard to call what will happen.
I was ultimately targetting the 1.3350 to indicate a continuation in the bearish MS, after which, the next HTF level I have on the chart is 1.3280.
The 2nd trade, I took 50% @ 20 pips (15pip SL), and I’ll pull the stop in tighter, but maybe not as far as BE, that way I’ll still have something to show for it should we reverse. Same sort of reasons as above, difficult conditions to gauge, are going up then down, or down then up? or just down? or just up? :). Bearish bias here, so I’m looking for good places to short, these stuck out so far…
Ok, stop management and placement is similar to my own…and what has been taught of course. But that was the reason for my question, my take profit (even though I entered at 1.3397 so my tp was at 1.3367) was never hit until just now at arount 9:40 New York time. I’m going to go back and look and see if there was an entry and an exit before mine that I missed or something.
It’s my first day back to live trading after a few months off. I went back to watching videos and catching up on stuff after two weeks of almost all losing trades. I’m in a similar trade, short at 1.3404 and took half off at 1.3389 - probably too soon, but I chickened out.
ADR low is at 1.3336, think we’ll get down there today?
Daily looks like it doesn’t know what to do and might turn bullish this week. However, there are big bearish railroad tracks on the weekly so maybe we will continue down…?
Alright, I see it now. I forgot you had the different entry at 3390…so therefore were tagged at the beginning of LO. My entry of 3397 wasn’t hit until after your trade was already opened and closed. My entry really was not done in a kill zone because I went to sleep and set a limit order. So I got a bit greedy at the start but ended up getting the trade to work out ok, luckily…meanwhile you got two trades to work out ok! By the way, your entry at 3390 was spot on!
I’ve taken first profit and stop is now better than BE so I am letting it run. It may have turned while I am typing but my thoughts are that although it is showing some support at the Asian range low (as it did at the AR high) it will break through this and head lower(as it did at the AR high). If it is to break through the AR low then looking at the 4h I like it to threaten the next big fig of 1.33 so I have placed my tp at 1.3306. Please keep in mind that you definitely need to take this with more than just one grain of salt because my opinion is relatively unqualified.
Today I shorted the Fiber (too bad I’m not trading the Cable)
entries based upng OTE and Bonds
First trade LOKZ - Short I collapsed early for a small profit. Bonds saved me from later being stopped out.
Second NYOKZ (early) Short
TP1 41 pips (not the usual 30) on limit
TP2 30 pips - on tight trailing stop after Bonds gave me a heads up
No time to post more.
The message is - pay attention to Bonds, for exits as well as entries.
Well I got greedy with my second tp, so needless to say I got stopped out way before it was hit. If you get time later and are so inclined, can you explain regarding the heads up you got from the action in bonds? Thanks a lot. Thankfully my trade was still profitable so I’m happy enough but definitely always room for learning.
i didn’t look into charts and details of such, what you mention is logical. If bonds are up, it means usd appreciation, any us dollar buys more than yesterday, and the price of anything quoted in dollars goes down (provided no change in demand/supply of commodity itself)
I have been looking at Major Market analysis all day, and what I have found is that the direction of CRB index messed everything up 
So right now, Im keeping it simple, wich is MS on 4H is Bullish USDX, and Bearish Fiber, MS on D TF is USDX seems to be bullish by a couple of pips… MS on Fiber D TF seems to be bullish tough, but expect this to turn around soon to be bearish…
I see there are some news that can have a impact tomorrow, but I will be looking for sell signals on fiber tomorrow…
GLGT!
[EDIT]
Would you guys deem the USDX as in a bullish MS, or wait for a break at the 80.66 before its Bullish?
Added a chart:
My take on the USDX is that while we have broken an intermediate swing high (indicating bullishness), before we did, we formed a new low relative to the swing low on 19th December 2012 (indicating bearishness), also blowing out the lows from 16th October 2012 before we entered into our current rally up.
We’ve rallied right up into the sweet spot area and price is stalling. Dojis on the daily TF. We are getting ready for the next leg:
The thing you have to watch is that you’re dealing with a daily chart. These levels are very important (a full days worth of data), but can take a long time to reach various levels you’re watching. Meanwhile, on the lower TFs we could of had good opportunities for both Longs and Shorts before we reach our daily S&R targets.
While we’re in this sweet spot area, price could head up towards that 79% level, or bounce down towards the 62% level, whatever. For me, this is when its most difficult to trade, you’re expecting the bounce but thats not to say it wont push higher (like we had today, resulting in some nice shorting opportunities on the Fiber).
The thing about market structure on the higher time frames (for me at least) is that in some cases, you want to be doing the opposite of what its structure is. For example:
High @ 81.00 intact
New Low @ 78.90 before the push up.
OTE zone of current trading range, indicating shorting opportunities.
Highs @ 80.30 taken out (potential bullish break).
So, if we assume because of this break, MS is indeed going to be bullish (if only we could see the right hand side of the chart :)), I would be looking to sell into the next level of support, around say 79.50/79.40 (OTE zone of this current range, assuming we’ve hit the top today).
Once we get there, begin looking for some indication that this price level will hold and indeed allow for a push up again (check 1H and 4H MS possibly), giving us our bullish run higher, hopefully taking out the highs we formed today as a confirmation… (ultimately the low should hold if we’re definitely heading up again)
So, while we’re in a bullish MS (or at least waiting for this be confirmed by the low remaining intact), you’re potentially selling into the next level of support OR you’re waiting with your Long limit order placed within the OTE zone around 79.50, with your SL below the low formed around 78.90.
Its kinda tricky to explain, but this is pretty much how I work it on the lower TFs. SL placement generally isnt a few hundred pips though
The lower TFs offer more in the way of “real time” MS trading. Today on the Fiber for example (15M TF), when we popped the stops @ 1.3410, this was our “bullish” indication. We retraced, and maintained the low formed during LO, and boom, up we went… (I was getting out of my short at this point, just incase we didnt have the legs to continue our bearish slide)
I’ve probably just confused the matter, but I’m done now. I’m sick of typing this junk
jonnycab that is kind of what I was trying to get at when I considered L-T and S-T sentiment but through MS, yes?
Both exist but you have to start from the top and as you zoom in you have to consider Intermediate and short term lows and highs as affecting the daily bias, EVEN if you can be sure that M-S on the daily chart is bullish.
As a noob trader I would wait until both L-T and S-T sentiment are bullish IMO to allow for a more profitable trade, since taking in the s-t bearish MS means you are trading counter trend and this is risky because in the S-T the smart money has a bigger say.
Maybe once you get better and have a feel for the market then you can trade short term counter trend but I would wait until I see a proper retracement making me bullish on both short and long term market structure.
hmm
Yes, thats right. And absolutely, trading with the current structure will give you a higher probability trade. But when viewed on a Daily TF, there are some good opportunities for both, even counter trend trading for a few hundred pips (like our current drop on the Fiber from 1.37 - 1.34)
I will now argue that USDX still shows bearish MS.
Please counter my argument, I’d appreciate it, I need someone to play devils advocate.
Since USDX is dificult to determine, we will skip it and analyze the rest of the economy, Bonds, Commodities and Stocks. We are in a deflationary environment (if you compare bond prices and the stock market you will see that there is a negative correlation)
Bond Prices are Decreasing (Bearish MS, Meaning US I.R. are rising, therefore Risk On)
Commodities are Bullish (Risk On because Increasing Commodity Prices means USDX has been decreasing falling in value)
Stocks are Bullish MS (Risk On) This includes Nasdaq, S&P500, DJIA
Foreign Currencies have been increasing.
IF USDX was doing what it is SUPPOSED TO BE DOING, then USDX should be bearish. Since we are having this debate about whether USDX is really bearish MS or Bullish, I would say we should consider it bearish since that is how the rest of the economy shows that it SHOULD be.
The moment USDX passes the Longer term high at 80.6-80.8, then I would consider it bullish MS, which should make the rest of the economy switch direction.
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