I think this week will be bullish for Fiber and Cable 
What I was trying to say above is that we have been given a clue that MS may have changed to bullish, because of the break above, but this in itself does not mean much without a confirmation.
If you look at the high I drew my Fib from, that was a higher high (bullish?) than the previous swing high but look at the sell off, forming a lower low. We didnt get a confirmation of bullishness by maintaining the recent swing lows. This is the key point, we WAIT for the confirmation. It doesnāt matter what we think āshouldā be happeningā¦
Cable & Fiber SHOULD be correlated. Theyāre very far from that at the minute 
Like yourself, I am looking at something pretty similar, a slide down in the USDX (bullish Cable and Fiber). I will be watching the key highs (81.00 & 81.50 on my chart posted above), if we maintain those, on a retracement, I would expect a lower low to form. If we donāt get that, then MS will be confirmed bullish and be potentially in for a move higher. This is where the āinside the rangeā webinar is very useful. I loved the material presented in that video session. What Im really saying is, if we should push higher on the USDX, I have plenty of levels to watch for potential resistance (stop runs, etcā¦, but ultimately maintaining the high at 81.50???)
Additionally, some very interesting confluences start to line up when you draw the Fib from the 81.50 to the newest low. 79% retracement is around that old high (but ultimately below it). the 70.5% level is just below the highs at 80.80, 62% at 80.50 (weāre almost there today):
So, its quite possible we push up that high (while still maintain the bearish MS). Waiting is the killer here
This is why ICT says you shouldnt be a bear or a bull, you should be adapting to what the charts are showing you and then trade itā¦ (very difficult to master this! - I NEED TO SHORT THIS!!!, despite all signs pointing to the contrary)
Love the anaylisis JonnyCab that is the same line of thought i was onā¦you take a look at the weekly chart on the usdx and you can see a head n shoulders pattern playing outā¦given the above analysis esp with the doji forming right at the 79% ote on the daily my bias is bearish on the dollarā¦ couple that with market structure still bullish on fiber on daily and enefficient price down last thursday and good buy vol support comin in right at the 50% retracement of this last major swing from 1/10/13-13700 high, i say this is a good value price range to take a long on the eurā¦sorry my name is Jay and i been lurking in the shadowsā¦keep up the great work everyone esp JonnyCab and Peterma
Also 10yr bonds could be heading much lowerā¦large gap from 3/24/12-4/7/12 yet to be filled
Iām using Bonds as a predictive indicator. Follows is my summary of what I look for:
Bond Price (US10,5,2) rising: Divergence on Bond Highs -> Bonds to drop -> USDX to drop
Bond Price (US10,5,2) falling: Divergence on Bond Lows -> Bonds to rise -> USDX to rise
USDX rising: Divā, Bond Price Lower Hi & USDX Higher Hi -> USDX to drop
USDX falling: Divā, Bond Price Higher Hi & USDX Lower Hi -> USDX to rise
Any rapid increase in Bond Prices (US and secondarily British & German) -> USDX to rise (lag 0 to 30 min)
Any rapid decrease in Bond Prices (US and secondarily British & German) -> USDX to fall (lag 0 to 30 min)
I found it easier to watch his video, which provide a good introduction to the subject.
My preferred book on this subject is:
Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis - How to Profit From The Shifting Currents in Global Markets
author: Ashraf Laidi
It looks like yesterdayās asian high on EURUSD is strong supportā¦ the L/H fib from yesterday is OTE for yesterdayās asian high.
What do you guys think?
Seems that correlation has ābrokenā since mid December 2012. Very clear on the Weekly, Daily less so and H4 just a mess. Such things usually mean something āBIGā is about to transpire. Wish I could figure out what it will be, although an increase in future volatility seems like a reasonable assumption.
Weekly
Daily
H4
Ok Iāve had this book for 8 months now and tried to read it 4 times already, every time I manage to read an extra two or three chapters heheh, maybe since you recommend I will try 1 more time ;p
So, if foreign bonds increase, (GER, UK) does that still represent flight to safety assets a.k.a. risk off? That question always stumped me, because you would think, if GER bonds rise the money would flow into EURā¦ Thatās why I have yet to incorporate COR SMT Bond Yields into my analysis.
Thanks%
About your Corr pair smt divergence, I think that unless we know where EURGBP is going then we have to be careful using the divergence, OR USE EURGBP to know which way the buying is taking place therefore know when to expect a negative correlation but that is above me.
Flight to saftey > Risk Off > US Bonds > USD buying > USDX up (note that USD not the same as USDX)
Sometime there is a lag that may be exploited for the nimble.
I no longer look at non US Bonds, although ICT does in at least one of his video ie divergence
If I knew know where the EURGBP is going I could become richer than Warren. The issue is not the trend, rather Divergence.
By the time you ID the trend it is often too late to profit. Divergence is sometimes predictive.
WW on fiber 4/1hr?
[QUOTE=rod178;455632]Flight to saftey > Risk Off > US Bonds > USD buying > USDX up (note that USD not the same as USDX)
Sometime there is a lag that may be exploited for the nimble.
One way to try and spot ālagsā is to have your USDx and US10Y charts on different time settings. I follow USDx on a H1 and 10Y on 30min charts so that I can try and spot possible changes in direction a bit quicker. Doesnt always work out but might be something to try out.
hi rod draghi is on again later today would long fiber be the right strategy ?
He does not give me a āheads upā, wish he did.
I have also been trading this pattern. Something I noticed quite a while ago - wait for the first move after a break of AS lows / highs to create a new h/l and get in on the retracement of that move - if you see what I mean. I only take a 20 profit as not sure this a daily hold 'em strategy as per ICT but nevertheless it seems to be doing just fine at that. Being flexible on ICT rules this year has resulted in me being profitable for 78% of the days I have traded since the 1st January.
haha - just seen the big uptick in EU as I write suggesting I could have held on a little longer but hey stuck to my rules!
I
Got lucky today 
Went against my trading plan because of Jonnycab convincing argument that USDX would fall, so I entered Long in the middle of the london session hoping for a short term ORO pattern, wich turned out to be a HTF(15min ) ORO pattern later on, anyway, that spike just took out the first part of my position, and I just closed the second half of my position since the Fiber just hit a point I was looking to short at
Thanks jonnycab, and good luck you guys(lesson to self, do some more homeworkā¦ againā¦)
btw, I made 3 scripts, which makes it much faster for me to open limit ordersā¦
There is a āBuy Orderā, āSell Orderā and āNew Orderā
The new order just puts up a line on the chart that you can move around,
and Buy/Sell Order opens a Limit or a Stop order at the line, with default 25pip stop-loss and 0.01 lots
you can drop as many Buy/Sell orders as you want. depending on how big your position should beā¦
scripts.zip (1.87 KB)
PS. I am using these scripts live on my accountā¦ And I do not take any responsebility for loss 
Good job! My commission is only 20% 
Rather nice line up of confluences for that Long, 1.3380 (KSR level, institutional), OTE of LO low - high retracement. I was stuck in a meeting all morning and didnt see it unfold unfortunatelyā¦ still flat today.
Okay, 20% of 8$ā¦ Where can I ship the 1.6$? Sorry, still running a pretty small account;)
(Im guessing the postage from UK would cost more :/)
