the forex factory calendar, it has been mentioned before, this is the link if you’d like to check it out
i wasn’t long because structure didn’t let me, but i wasn’t short either. was thinking more along the line of news pushes price up, then short from higher level… 'm kinda ticked cause i can’t touch cable now, probably not today
Thanks, I will keep a eye on FF’s calendar 
Yeah, its kinda scary since its SO ‘oversold’ these days, but I have decided that for me, Im gooing to look for Sell signals as long as MF is short(when MF goes long, I will wait for a break in Market structure too, and a retracement before starting to look for Buy signals). In other words, Im prepared to loose a couple of times when it turns, but I want as much as possible on the way down
Good Luck!
PS. most of my thoughts on the market these days, come from Green as Grass’ quote, “Trade what you see”, I love it 
good strategy Richard, well done!
this gbp short will go on until not one person is left who wants to buy it… that retail position may tell us what’s going on. Note to self, continue checking every day!
Thanks! I didn’t see your msg yesterday, Things are going to be getting busier for me over the next months… summers on it’s way & trading starts to take a back seat, but I’ll be around until late May.
I’m glad you guys have kept this thread going, it’s a goodie 
I agree that GBPUSD could fall more but against what? USDX is at a resistance 82.5, and eurgbp is stuck at 0.875, I´m thinking that the loss in value of GBP is coming from GBPJPY have you seen ?
From what I understand for a currency to continue depreciating, another currency has to appreciate correct???
Thanks… :X
On a separate note, EURUSD has made a triple bottom, but I´m not going long until USDX shows bearish MS, possibly tomorrow with retail sales. … :X
Hmm, yeah, that makes perfect sense(havnt thaught about it like that), time to dig a little deaper and learn a little more about the market
from a bank report:
“The steady fall in GBPUSD over the course of 2013 reached a
significant milestone with the breach of 1.50 late last week, and momentum indicators are sug-gestive of oversold levels. This week’s data may provide for further downside, given expectations
for a deterioration in industrial production and a widening in the trade deficit. Relative central
bank policy will provide for further declines as markets position for easing from the BoE.”
now how much easing remains to be priced in the pair after 1400 pips decline, maybe a lot more. But the US economy still carries the burden of many trillion dollars in accounted and off the book debt, and dollar has increased so much lately that cable is becoming to me a ‘hard’ sell.
Check this out:
No hesitation or closing of contracts yet, possibly a slight flat in OI but until we see a pullback in OI then I´m still short :D!!!
Shouldn´t be that long though… a lot of money is in this market right now (OI defines the number of open contracts) and once they start closing, it´s gonna be a landslide =D
I’ve been watching this for a month or two now and until Open Interest decreases significantly I’d still look to be short.
Also the pound isn’t just being sold against the dollar, a lot of the initial slide was selling against the euro.
So I believe it could slide further even if the dollar doesn’t rally, all the way through January cable and fibre moved in different directions.
Any of you guys thinking about entering cable again? I want to, but dont think I should… Its in a OTE from todays high to low, and a ote inside of that on 15min in NYO…
I wont enter btw, going to keep looking and see how it goes
It was a little later than I anticipated - but why the bullish anticipation?
The answer lies in in the first post on Fri evening. - risk was on the second the nfp release - see the us bond prices reaction to the release, the correction to syn so often happens on the Mon or the Tue post the release.
Exited long at the 60 - reason - seemed to be running out of steam, 60 was my target area
ICT Tools used to enter/exit trade:
Bias … usdx triad divergence
Entry point - ote of LO swing at 3000, confluence with big fig, under the asian range high, under central pivot point, stop was 25 pips, target was 50 pips or more.
Exit: No scale out because against higher tf flow. exit point ote short of nfp swing Fri high to low.
(The 62% fib is 3065)
Hey SKratch,
You’ve got some nice looking chart going on here… I have no idea or clue what to look for but it is nice looking ;).
Maybe I should stare some more maybe it will sink in…lol…Thanks!
what there not to get xDDD
^^just kidding
All I’m interested in on the charts is open interest i think if you want a good book about it try and get a hold of martin pring - on market momentum
here’s a list of his open interest rules if you want a shortcut heheh
Basically unless open interest starts to drop, we should assume the trend will continue.
Nice!! I like your blog… I will read through it. Thank you.
Ohh… can you hook me up with [B]“fairy godmother”[/B]? I am low on shoes…lol
Love this Quote of yours [I]I will call my fairy godmother and wear glass slippers :)[/I]
I do’nt trade the cable but I like to watch it and Eur/Gbp.
On a 4 hr cable if I was to say ’ quick, just eyeballing, should we be bullish or bearish?’
Amazingly on Oanda the majority of their open trades are long!!! 63% long vs 36% short.
FXCM run a ‘SSI (speculative sentiment index) Indicator’ which is like Oanda in that it defines where the majority of their traders are - at present it is 2.65 long vs 1 short on the cable. (Jason Roger’s excellent thread)
I’ve done this many many times in the past - ‘this thing has fallen so much it just HAS to turn’ - even yet I have to be careful of this little demon.
They call it ‘The Monte Carlo Fallacy’.
Hey SKratch,
I like what I am reading so far about Martin Ping. The one where he speaks about the crucial role of imagination in achieving our goals… “Having an authentic inner vision of what you want to achieve is essential to bringing it forth.” This is what I always believe and what I am trying to live up too… This is very interesting and I think I will take my time to learn more about this…
I hope you don’t mind if I ask, as far as Open Interest chart that you’ve post above, are you basing this information for your long term bias for GBP along with your USDX? or are you basing this OI for your intraday short term trade? I would think that the momentum (aside from OI) will also base on the fundamental factor of that currency base on what was going with the country specially if a possible QE will be needed in a few months down the road… Sorry, I might be talking like a noob here…just my thought…
Skratch how do you set up COT reports in barchart i was trying to find but mine doesnt have OI on it