Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

What is TWYS means?

Trade what you see!

It does seem like cable too is in a long term OTE long area now(a fake ote that is, but it could mean a change to the flow lower, I will keep looking for short signals. However if I get a bullish break in market structure(ITH,4H) then I will be looking for buy signals)

Anyone else watching the markets today?

I think right now the key is to watch for when the dollar will decline. The dollar has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, which i read is the longest increase since 1999 when the dollar index was instigated. Also the fact that both the dollar and the stock market are increasing is contradictory, it should be the opposite (Assuming the dollar IS a safe haven currency)

So, sooner or later the dollar should start depreciating.

This lines up with your possible OTE scenarios. Iā€™m watching the markets for now I donā€™t know if I will get in though.

Have to study - _ -

Yeah, it is really quet today:/ I didnt know that about the dollar index, interesting! It will be interesting to see if Cable turns this week :wink:

Heres my take on the divergence:



http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sUquF_T5iiQ/UT2rEJv0HUI/AAAAAAAAAyI/MMHJVneZLAs/s1600/div.jpg
I am not sure which way it will go, but they say the longer the consolidation the more likely a reversal. a major market mover this week will be the US Retail sales on wed I bet.

Hey guys, I havenā€™t been able to trade for the last couple of weeks, life is getting in the way :stuck_out_tongue: , good to see you all beavering away at it :smiley:

Scratch, correct me if Iā€™m wrong, but I thought there were two US Dollar Indexes,
This one created in 1973
U.S. Dollar Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

& the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index one created in 2011
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Like you guys Iā€™m still bearish on both the Cable & Fiber, although they are in bullish OTE zones.

My focus is on the Cable which Iā€™m looking at it dropping another 100 pips.

Retailers are still long on this pair.

US dollar is seasonally strong until April / May I think it is

The Cable at 1.48000 level has plenty of confluence where it is inside two bullish OTEā€™s on the weekly chart & also a reflection pattern & support from March 2010ā€¦

I might try & post up some charts if I can find some time later on.
All the best for this week & TWYS :wink:

Hey! =)
I mean since the euro became the euro, and the makeup of the basket of currencies was altered, the USDX changed completely in 1999. :X

Iā€™m also still bearish on fiber until I see confirmation from Usdx. =)

Nice to see you back Green, was wondering what had happend to you :slight_smile:

Ohhhhhhh I see! Thanks, I didnā€™t even realize there were two USDXā€™s until recently, Iā€™ll keep quiet now :22:

hey everybody,

has been a while. said i was going to detach myself from the forums for a while and i did, but wasnā€™t able to trade that much because of work, so nothing much to say about my trading.

just wanted to ask: is there a holiday today that i dont know about? so extremely quiet today. and while im here: think this is going to be an up week (fiber especially). think we will see one push lower first though, especially after this tight range. nnot sure if the low from friday will hold or not, but i think there is a fair chance. nevertheless, will see what today and tomorrow will bring, low will be formed until wednesday if my weekly bias is correct, will be looking for fiber longs from wednesday on

Hi TopFroxx, good question, I was just thinking about adding them to my Google Calendar, but I dont know any of them :confused: is there a source somewhere where we have them all listed?
(I found this one Bank Holidays dates 2012 - 2015 (UK Public Holidays) , but I guess the US has their own set of holidaysā€¦)

Found this one from Forex LTD wich seems to be pretty complete(and reliable)
Holidays Calendar | Forex Ltd

I made a google calendar, free 4 allā€¦
https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=dak27rcuk4q0isl86mip8klr1g%40group.calendar.google.com&ctz=Europe/London

For holidays and more importantly eco data / news, take a look at Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory

long term jpy -

something iā€™ve been looking for, ways and ideas for more pips and less time at the screen, that would be good, and one way is to consider long frame charts, longer trades. Jpy is a good candidate, this is the COT chart weekly nearest, and commercial positions are at highest since 2009. And i pulled a couple of s/r lines, okay,


now, this is the weekly eurjpy chart. they look similar in mirror view


online photo sharing

the level at red x was missed for 21 points, on a weekly, so will there be a run for it, i believe it likely, and futures could be doing their similar course on the blue lines. At some point the weekly chart will generate a ā€˜bounceā€™ still a 700-1200 point trade that i will be looking forā€¦ though no idea how long it will take and what it may be like to stay in a trade for days and weeks maybe. i think the main premise with it is that extreme long position by the commercials/ extreme short by large specsā€¦ wonder what could be a sign the trade is about to get under way

in the meantime 30-50 pips are just fine, i closed the friday long fiber and if it gets up there first, iā€™ll seek to short in the 3080-3100 area, for what it may give


Push up now on fibre - see the djia.

3065 the next hurdle (the 62% fib) - LO will test that probably - maybe even the asian session.

3080 and weā€™ll consider the gap fully closed -

USDX at key 82.50, eur/gbp at key 87.50 - if eurx can clear 108.50 ā€¦German cpi tomorrow morn 7.00gmt - hang onto your seat belts.

My limit short order triggered on Cable, so short with 25pip SL from 1.4898, wish me luck :wink:
(risking 0.5% since I took a loss last week, feels weird :stuck_out_tongue: )

On a second note, It just dawned on me that I might be looking at a Z-day/week when looking at cable, and if thats true, than I entered in the excact centre position :confused:

On a third note :stuck_out_tongue: Its amazing to see how the Key S/R lines that I put on my chart 2 and a half month ago is still amazingly accurate! :open_mouth:

support 4880 with HS up is possible in cable
red flag news in 15 mins


edit: nope, no hs. Congrats Richard for the short trade

Red flag news? :open_mouth: FXbook just list them as yellow :confused:

Im out, the good way :slight_smile: Kinda annyoung I can only afford the smallest possible position when trading 0.5%, but thats the prizze I have to pay to loose :slight_smile:

Its funny how the retailers are ALWAYS positioned wrong before news:P somehow the proffessionals manage to move dumb money(NOT US!) to the long side before sending it south :slight_smile:

(75% is Long on cable today, from fxbook)

[EDIT] Seems like FXbook was wrong on the expected impact from the news :confused: it should have been red :wink: