I am… only risking .5%… Don’t want to give back what I have earned for the past week and days…
This is just a test for me… 
It seems the 10Yr and risk currency correlation has been broken since NFP. If you want to apply treasuries then you need to be trading USDJPY using S&R, MS and OTE Fibs. Combine this with Lori’s observations on inefficiencies and feeding back into release points (applied on a Candlestick chart of 5yr,10yr and 30yr Ts), and you are good to go.
(Hitting support on the Ts as we speak. Oh, look at UJ!)
Yes, I am still watching my key levels from previous posts and really waiting for a change in daily/4h MF/MS for confirmation over the coming sessions.
Whilst it might be self-gratifying to be right, there’s no prize here to be won. Often when you react early you get bitten and taught a lesson. I go back to my ‘it’s like the weather’ remark. All bets are off until tomorrow. Whilst I am expecting a fightback Friday, it could very easily go the other way. I mean, damn, the USD just keeps piling on the pressure fundamentally.
Conviction or Stubborn ?..lol…got stop out and done trading for today…
Have a great day!
Thanks for the heads up, now I don’t need to maintain that excel sheet anymore, which was tiresome if you forgot about it for a few weeks. I’m hoping it’s skillfully automated and updates pretty much as soon as the raw data is released. High five!
Ok, I don’t like to see a trader take a loss and for some reason I like your temprement in your posts. So here’s some advice that really helped my trading when it finally dawned on me:
Next time you’re in this situation, micro-managing your trade, go back to candlestick theory and really analyse what is happening to price. In this and all future cases, I validate the strength of the candle to be determined by the broker volume. Take note, on the 15m chart, of the Hammer candle at 12:30 GMT. A sharp increase in volume. View this, in this scenario, as the sellers running out of steam. It would have prompted me to bail out of the trade and accept I was wrong. At the very least it would have protected my capital and if price did happen to go in my favour I’d have accepted that I had entered the trade late and was chasing price rather than anticipating it.
Good job just chucking 0.5% at it, I also follow this logic and protect my weekly gains when I’m trading just to have a trade open 
A bit wordier than expected, but I hope it helps now and in the future.
Lots of gbp buying right now.
Just check carefully against your own spreadsheet first. While it lines up with my Fiber data, the Cable data is slightly off.
Not unexpected
I’ve not updated that spreadsheet in months. I just don’t use COT data much, but Skratch summarising the rules has brought it back into focus for me. It’s a weekly habit I should really get into.
I wanted to question whether it was using futures+options or futures only data, I couldn’t see any write up of how they are working out the COT data on the myfxbook site.
I agree the excel sheet might be more comfortable to use because that’s what I’m used to in terms of data/information, but, let’s face it, that excel sheet is a bind. A horrible horrible bind! Mostly because the time that information comes out is a Friday night and really I’m trying to wind down for the week, so I tend to ‘leave it till later’, especially if I’m not carrying trades.
I have my own reason why I enter on that trade and yes, I might have missed something that “I didn’t see” that you see… Thanks for the advice on the candlestick theory and yes I use them too… but it didn’t work out for me today.
I am sure this is not the first time I loss on traders :). I have had soo many failures so I have learn to accept it and handle my money management properly specially not giving back my winnings. So far, I don’t have any losing month for the past few months (granted I am only trading for over a year).
My primary goal is to be consistent… then profitable next :).
Glad you like my losing posts comments… lol. Thanks!
Yeah, interesting though, are we seeing a cable bottom, a eur/gbp top - and poor old fibre just ca’nt make up it’s mind - being pulled this way and that, or is it just a little correction.
Eur/gbp at supp at 86.20 - if I was going to scalp (fibre)it would be up, but too little potential at moment (supp turning resist h4 etc) so flat it remains.
Still - watch the risk indicators - they are always right in the end.
Real life forex 
needed to pay the rent for my flat in london this week, but the transfer have tooken an unusual long time, and today the price for GBP/NOK rallyed 2500pips after the norwegian central bank ****ed up everything FML
On a good note, hopefully it will retrace a little and my bank is nice and dosnt give me a crazy spread:P
Probably a release of profits to fund trades on another currency. I don’t track all pairs so I couldn’t give any answer, but that would be my guess.
In the short-term, I’m bullish until 1.30511 give or take a few micropips. Then I’d look to fade the rally for 50-100 pips. That’s my gameplan over the next few sessions concerning the Euro. Of course this is just an opinion on price action given today’s movement and will probably change, like the weather.
It’s a big ask for it to get to 1.3050 today.
I’m uncomfortable giving exact prices like these, I will conciously reduce these types of posts to protect others from making mistakes based on my opinion. It’s why I edited out my Asia musings last night, but sadly it got quoted.
I guess in part, now Michael has abandoned activity on this thread, I am showing that it is possible to comprehend where he was coming from and make it work. Whilst I am grateful to him for organising and presenting the information to me in the way he did, I am disappointed in him on a personal level. But, like some sort of lovable rogue, I still love him. I just don’t need him anymore and I think if I understand him correctly, that is mission accomplished. Damn, I’ve tried to keep my opinion to myself about this, but, trading… how lonely it can be.
Any bets on what’s happening with USDX?
I can’t find a concrete explanation, everything I read shows strength of US and weakness of EUROPE.
" EUR/USD dropped sharply after disappointing GDP data from the Eurozone. Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone all posted larger than expected declines in their economies, underscoring continued weakness in the bloc’s major economies. (FOREXCRUNCH)"
OBSERVATIONS:
- sudden drop in us 10yr Bond Yields
- USD dropping against JPY, GBP, EUR, CHF, CAD
Does this mean it’s a judas swing? -__- Then again, USDX has had such a large run that it may be burnt out and time for a retracement.
._. have to watch and see. I’m staying out xDDDD
Edit: is it this 5pm 30 year bond auction that’s causing the sudden change in sentiment??? -_- I still have a lot to learn.
0830EST: S&P says the federal sequestration cuts could shave approx. 0.7% off their forecast of 2.7% real GDP growth in 2013
Now look at your EUR/USD 30 min chart since 08:30EST and you’ll see the footprints of the large order book starting at c12910. There are more orders down there to be filled.
Next risk event at 1300EST: EU summit press conference.
Thats what you get when price buzzes around macro levels.
Thrax - you were’nt so far out, almost to the 3050.
I too hate the thought of someone changing their bias because of one of my posts, I’ve thought long and hard about this, I’ve cancelled many posts for this very reason.
I’ve lately come to the realisation that we do’nt trade of each other’s opinions and posts, we learn from them, so please keep those ideas and opinions coming.
Go to the 4 hr on fibre, zoom back a little and draw a trend line from highest high down today’s high.
I dislike those lines but cannot ignore them - many traders use them, anyone going long at nyo - that’s where they targetted.