I’m still holding myself to the levels I gave. I’m still bullish and looking to fade it over the next 24hrs at the given level. Certainly not something I would do with a limit order. My action plan requires me to get up out of bed (unlikely) and place a market order. With my way of trading I prefer to see the confirmation candle forming.
Quite a lot of confluences at that 1.3030…Weekly central pivot,Monthly MS1 and 79% fib level.
Fibre has worked the weekly pivots really nicely this week.
I know this is not a pattern trading thread but I HAVE to show you guys this cypher i grabbed at…
(I agree with THRAX, trading is lonely xDD That’s why you become best buddies with faceless people with avatars on forums )
Cyphers are the only patterns I trade, and this one hit the 0.789 ret and BAM xDD
To tie it into the ICT Principles (I follow them and am proud of it), look at the Asian session short accumulation.
I need to look more at the news report about the sequestration and it’s impact on GDP (We need to watch how the FED will respond)
MY BEARISH BIAS IN EURUSD
But in the meantime USDX is still bullish Market Structure, and EURUSD is still Bearish Market Structure.
Commodites check out (Bearish MS, while USDX is Bullish MS)
Stocks are the only worry to me because stocks are Bullish MS while USDX is Bullish, which is a really strange phenomenon. I’ve read a few reports and I mean to look more into the possibility that the US Dollar is becoming a risk currency rather than a safe haven currency (any thoughts?)
[ QUOTE=Thrax;468823]I’m uncomfortable giving exact prices like these, I will conciously reduce these types of posts to protect others from making mistakes based on my opinion. It’s why I edited out my Asia musings last night, but sadly it got quoted.
I guess in part, now Michael has abandoned activity on this thread, I am showing that it is possible to comprehend where he was coming from and make it work. Whilst I am grateful to him for organising and presenting the information to me in the way he did, I am disappointed in him on a personal level. But, like some sort of lovable rogue, I still love him. I just don’t need him anymore and I think if I understand him correctly, that is mission accomplished. Damn, I’ve tried to keep my opinion to myself about this, but, trading… how lonely it can be.[/QUOTE]
But I assume those prices are just key s/r levels? Can’t see anything wrung with that, if someone gets burned by that then so be it. I’m sure everyone in this thread knows not to take a trade without doing their own analyse…apart from me
LoL depends who will follow you who not, like Michael said and showed us we MUST do our own analysis… so please stick to it. But sharing ideas is always good 
If anyone does decide to hold back before making a trade, please do present analyse once the trade has closed. Particularly enjoyed posts detailing the tools used, very useful to a n00b like me.
I’ve read that many times over the years, the theory gained some momemtum as recently as 2008, but in business the usd reigns supreme.
If I ask for a product quote from Czech Republic - it’s in usd, all the Chinese exporters… in usd, Oil per barrell … usd.
Until that changes (unlikely in my lifetime) then safe haven currency will still be usd.
Sat - I’ll post an analysis of a trade that never opened, because of my single biggest bogeyman!!!
This morning I refused to be bearish because of the ongoing usdx triad div (my favourite tool), it continued to whisper ‘this is a run down to the 2900, see all the signs, risk is up, look, fibre should not be going down, see where it is trying to reach to’.
I really intended to go long at nyo - then I talked myself into being super cautious - looking for confirmation, afraid of picking bottoms, sometimes we look for too many confluences, in retropect I had the security of the 2900 fig, sure I didnt get the bull ote, but I had enough to enter long at at the re-touch of ms1 at 2940 or indeed to take the scalp that I was talking about at break of Asian Range high at 2980
Not beating myself up - just analysing why I did’nt take the trade - FEAR.
I’m posting this to help me look this bogeyman in the eye next time and say to him - I’ve done my homework, I’m doing the trade.
I’d like to know how it works. I assume safe haven currency is that to which carry traders quickly repatriate their money to when risk turns on…:? don’t quote me on that though I will study this.
Edit: I need to study this more when I get a good grip I will post a new diagram 
Thanks ChristianGrey
JPY and CHF can be taken off the list due to the relatively recent actions of their respective Centrals banks to devalue their currencies… AUD is increasingly behaving like a safe haven currency as its triple A sovereign debt rating, high interest yield and it’s distance from the euro crisis have attracted foreign investors in droves.
Ah… TY xD
What about USD?
Yep, they come and they go, I remember about 9 months ago a poster exclaiming 'how come we just had good news from US and yet the usd just fell?.'
We were all lining up to inform that good news for US meant risk on which meant down usd and up fibre - the beauty of forex - nothing is set in stone.
After watching USDX and Treasuries diverge, I spent some time last weekend looking at the charts to try and see what might happen next. Mid Aug to early Sep, USDX headed downhill, while the 30 and 10 yr treasuries headed up. This created a divergence, and the treasuries headed down to catch up with the USDX. Again, in mid Nov, USDX once again and headed down while treasuries headed up, creating another divergence where the treasuries would follow USDX down. Right now, USDX has made a beeline up, while treasuries have been going down. Again, another divergence has been created between the 30 yr and 10 yr. This would leave me to believe the treasuries will be heading up to catch up with the USDX. I have always thought the treasuries lead the way for currencies, but now I’m starting to think during certain times, the currencies will lead the way. Any thoughts?
I’m tired and as I’ve hit may target this week, I’m not going overboard on analysis. I’m quite happy to allow MF/MS to print out before trading with real intent next week.
With respect to the EUR level I gave earlier, I’m also monitoring 1.30547 tomorrow for shorting. I don’t have the energy tonight to spend much time on it, so I’ll summarise with: I’m looking to short during whichever session (A/L/NY) with a market order near 1.30511/1.30547. I’m assuming tomorrow will be a high volatility day with a nice sweep up/down/up. What you think of as a Z day. I expect London to provide the entry for me, scooping 50/100/125 pips.
I guess that price will settle on the close of the week around 1.30, however that’s just throwing a price out there for the sake of it. But that seems to me to be a nice price to sow confusion into traders over the weekend, showing neither a bearish nor bullish posture.
I currently have no trades open. If I do trade tomorrow I will only enter at the levels stated if I see a high volume gravestone doji/shooting star form. I will use a very tight stop and move it to break even within 10 pips or so to my favour.
Pay careful attention to how MF/MS plays out tomorrow and use that to provide a sentiment to next week. I am very comfortable for a new low to form tomorrow, lower than today. It will just alter my expectations for next week.
This is just a trade idea, nothing more. There are no certainties.
Overall, I’m bullish on the Euro for tomorrow, really the trade idea is to play a fade, exiting the trade before the session ends. If price revs up, then there won’t be a fade at that level to short-term profit from. It probably makes more sense to look for long entries.
Hey Richard87!
Congrats on going live my friend… i’m still demo trading with a $5k account. I’ve decided i’m going to go live once it hits $7,500 (currently at $5,700).
It would be great if maybe you could share with us the changes you have to deal with (both on a broker and psychological level) when you go live?
Looking at what happened yesterday on the eurusd, I found it interesting that the price fell just barely short of the central pivot, nor did it retrace enough for an ote long or short IMHO. At around NYO time we saw higher highs on usdx and higher low on euro. I put in a long position at about 1.293 in the euro based on the previous day’s low to AR high fib at 79% OTE. However, the next candlestick bar didn’t hold above the 79% OTE. Closed it immediately after that candle closed, lost about 0.3 pips.
Even though it was a stop raid and the market moved up after… I had no idea until after the fact, and therefore am glad I had the discipline to close that trade out. I usually hope/pray the move will go my way and suffer, but this time I decided nope, i’m out.
Hi Lazy,
I think you have to take care not to oversimplify things. Within the USDX, each of the currencies have their own stories whether it be downgrade issues, Eurozone issues, or new and enhanced QE programs.
Try to think in terms of these issues, aswell as where the momentum is in Treasuries. Also think in terms of safe haven flows vs yield seeking flows. How do the correlations add up at this moment in time? The 10yr yield is no longer declining, but hasn’t really started a full strength climb, either. Is the bond market bubble bursting? (Yields climbing back towards 4%) Probably not at this point. But the fact that the yields have stopped their vicious declines means that the tailwind is no longer with ‘risk off’ flows, and is therefore neutral (consolidation) which allows for ‘risk on’ moves in the risk currencies. (That is if we are to agree on the current scenario as a ‘safe haven flow’ one.)
However, since the end of January/start of Feb, the 10yrs have been supported by the 130-00 level which is major support going back not only to the summer of 2012, but also resistance turned support - Sept 2011 and start of 2012. This has prevented a further climb in the yields past 2%, which has in turn taken the wind out of the sails of further ‘risk on’ moves.
In short, I think we need to look in terms of building and unwinding safe haven flows, and how far that unwinding is likely to go when looking at the bond charts. They can provide an indication of the next move, but as always, it is only a matter of stacking probability in your favor.
As an exercise for you to do, I would recommend putting up a Weekly chart of Fiber, and a 3Yr chart of Bloomberg’s USGG10YR:IND. Start in April 2011 with the crosshairs placed on both charts at the same date, and inch forward looking at the correlations. I have the luxury of two computers and two mice with a chart on each, but you could print off the charts and move two rulers across the charts at the same time, old skool style!
Those are my thoughts.
Lazy,
Re-reading your post, it seems we are on the same page with regard to the correlations. Hopefully my take on it added something to your analysis, and also stimulated some thought in others.