yes, your input is always helpful and appreciated. I was just pointing out some past scenarios where bonds and the USDX disconnected. On many days, we can see what tomorrow may bring due to a tipoff from bonds (30, 10 & 5 yr treasuries, as well as the US, Gilt & Bund). We also have the equities market that will sometimes give us a hint. Right now, equities aren’t tipping us off, and neither are the treasuries. My Gilt feed has been down the last few days so I’m not sure if that triad has been working. Spotting the disconnect early will be helpful in it’s own right. In recent history, I have shown 2 examples where bonds diverged, and what happened from the divergence. Now another divergence has formed, which could be a window into what will be happening next. We’ll have to wait and see if this in fact another clue.
I’m micro-managing it, my stop is at 1.3072. TP1 is at 1.3047, at which point I’ll set the rest to break-even. The most alarming candle is over, I’m thinking about leaving the terminal to go have a shower. TP2 is currently 1.3030, where I will take the lion’s share off the table.
It looks like the market is a little bit more risk on than I thought it was going to be, which is fine, so I’m aggresive for taking profits and risk out for this fade play.
Anyway, hope that helps you with the trade. Or at least gives you an opinion on targets. It’s entirely likely it could sweep down for 45, then pause, then move to 80 pips profit, but I am just not that aggresive at the end of the week when targets really should have been hit or missed and should not be relying on a Friday ‘fun’ trade.
As a ‘heads up’ there is a 1bn options expiry for cable today at 1.5150 and 1.3bn expiry on Monday at 1.51. Might see those levels getting alot of attention till after Monday.
I’m also monitoring the Cable, which is showing a healthier rejection of higher prices. I always seem to pick the wrong pair. But at least it is mimicing and that brings more comfort to the table.
Yes, the Euro options seem to be staggered every 50 pips all the way down to 1.29. I have no thoughts on this other than it’s open season, so I’m expecting for the market to fight up and down and give liquidity.
I´ve always wanted a Glit feed. XDDDD