Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

any chance of some links to working copies of the videos and other downloads from this thread and the original millionaire guild thread??

You sir, are an idiot.

Guys there is other pairs too :slight_smile: when Fiber have such days like Cyprus and stuff just focus on Cable or something else i made very easy and nice 50Pips trading Cable today, this week i was not even trading Fiberā€¦ Remember if you are new and just started, Michael is advocating trading 1-2 times a week, many of you do that in a day :slight_smile: you just overshooting sometimes :stuck_out_tongue:

Ya I made a rule that I would let myself look for a trade for up to one hour a day (more or less I try to limit myself to London Open window) and if I find nothing I stop for the day and go do something else or study more theory / l-t bias analysis.

The power of correlation not to be underestimated - especially if day trading.

When day trading fibre I am interested in usd weakness/strength and in euro weakness/strength.

In absence of big news then itā€™s up to the dealers, e.g this afternoon they brought fibre down to 2885 for the second time, but check Eur/gbp and Eur/chf - they did not fall to their respective lows at the same time? (14.15 gmt).

When I saw this happen that indicated Euro strength, it strenghted my bias that fibre would bounce.

From the mrci tables itā€™s easy to see eurx and eur/chf are nicely correlated, as is usdx.

Hereā€™s the correlation that I watch at present.

30 DAYS
60 DAYS
90 DAYS
120 DAYS

Euro FX:
US10yr
-62
 -45
 -71
-67



CHF:
+97
+70
+73
+73



USDX:
CHF
-99
-89
-87
-80



CAD:
-94
-87
-82
-81



GBP:
-92
-89
-81
-79

Numbers are daily - my notes a couple of days old.
+100 means fully (positively) correlated - useless as there will be no divergence, -100 is the reverse.
MRCIā€™s intermarket correlation tables here:

MRCIā€™s Inter-Market Correlations

Fiber

If I understand correctly, this is hidden bullish divergence (or type2 as per ICT) so price to go higher next and time to buy the dips? Could the experts confirm if my understanding is correct please?

Yes jinirav but I would need more confirmation personally, stochastic is great for confirmation but not a primary reason for entry. IMO.

This could however be what makes you say, Hey! Maybe PA will reverse soon! Zoom in to the 1h / 4h and wait for a break in MS before going long.

Thank you Skratch. Iā€™ll keep an eye on a break in MS + other confluences in the coming days before going long.

Divergence this morning again eur/chf and fibre - see how eur/chf made a lower low at 7.30am gmt - fibre said no, not going down past 2890 - a sign of fibre strength at that time ( thatā€™s the caveat - it only shows the dealersā€™ immediate intentions - helps your bias if you are looking for 20 - 30 pips)

Since when have you tracked the eurchf against the fibre for divergences?

Since I cannot rely on my old favourite cross - Eur/Gbp - on mrci you can see how the numbers dropped, although now increasing, for correlation on GBP - the cause of gbp deviation lies with the fundies, the value of being aware of an ever changing market.

Fair enough, as I suspected. Keep up the good posts peterma. Keeps the mind fresh.

Your point is entirely accurate Thrax - they dont exist (apart from ChristianGrey that is but who may only be telling us 40 shades of the truth :)).However as an interesting bit of off the cuff research I wonder what the percentage of profitable to non profitable days is for traders on this thread. Itā€™s not a particularly informative statistic on its own, but nevertheless might show up some data we can work with to help us all improve via discussion of results etc.

To kick off mine is 75% (36/48 for this years trading) and I should state that not all trades I take are strictly ICT set ups but are based on the same general principles.

If its of no interest then no worries folks - just though a little Friday afternoon distraction might be fun.

Mark

All I can answer that with is that Iā€™m comfortable where Iā€™m at. I posted a myfxbook link a long time ago for a demo account. Donā€™t judge me. http://forums.babypips.com/show-me-money-daytrading/43211-inner-circle-traders-millionaire-traders-guild-134.html#post351007

The whole cyprus fiasco is turning into a financial soap opera.

X_X

Not in a rush to trade next week but looking at the 4 hour chart, it looks like MF is now turned to Bullish as the previous swing high is broken. I am still learning MS and MF concepts so appreciate any guidance on these from the experts here

Yup MS is broken on 1hour, but for me personaly British Pound next week should be more interesting. When you see MS broken on 4Hour and Daily chart at major S&R lvl then you look to Commercials and open interest to see what they will be doing. And Look at MS because she is lead and MF is just her Personal Assistants :smiley:

Thank you Kuzia. I have watched the ICT re these concepts but need to watch couple of more times. Are you using the Barchart.com to see OI and Commercials actions?

Commercials are getting extreme short on the dollar. Just be aware. Guess ill start taking profit on some of my positions sigh