Yep, look at the image below of the last month or so on the Fiber:
Looking from left to right, lower lows maintained, and for the most part, lower highs. On the first red level that is marked, you may have been considering something like this to unfold:
Why? Because we formed a new swing high above the first swing high marked in red. This however was not confirmed and MS broke down again forming a new short/intermediate swing low. Same thing happens with the other swing highs I have marked in red.
Iām still unsure of how weāll progress next week, but the interesting thing is, we did make a higher low this week. I would be looking for that to be maintained during the next few weeks, resulting in the black arrow scenario playing out. Otherwise, the red arrow is likely to happen and we sell off some more. But the fact we made a nice inverted style H&S pattern, maybe we are seeing a reversal in the worksā¦ who knows
Now that weāve come this far up, I cant see the smart money not filling the remainder of that gap we formed at the start of the week. Thats not to say we wont slide down initially during the start of the week, but you get the idea from the arrows. Ultimately Iām watching the 1.2880/1.2920 for downside and 1.3020/1.3060 for some upside (OTE [70.5% & 79%] zone to get short from the 1.3107 - 1.2844). Depending on the reaction we get at these levels, that may offer some indication as to how we will be trading for the next few weeksā¦
There is a good chance that fibre will gap up on Sun night, the probable deal on Cyprus will be the fuel. (I doānt mind saying this now that market is closed and cannot influence anyone).
Notice how price held up all afternoon and evening, dealers didānt want to push it down, the deal was being dangled like the proverbial carrot.
Kuzia, glad to see you follow the cots - my single biggest aim is to fully understand these, a work in progress.
Jonny, you are right, you know about gaps and all those juicy orders that got left behind, they are still up there, never managed to get the stops at 3170 so keep an eye out for those.
On gbp, different story, good push up recently on cable, the Fitch story had little impact but may impact more next week, so Iām glad Iām not a cable trader - way too volatile for me
Think chess. The Russians, and especially if Mr. Putin is involved, are playing their hand extremely well.
He can basically wait for all the others to place their bets (euro denominated) and show their hands (how they will provide the euros, or expropriate them) and then the Bear can come in and say, āIāll raise the bet, you donāt have anymore chips, so I win without showing my handā, which will be some sort of ownership of petro-rights or something that will multiply their current supposed investment.
They are in an excellent position to not have to play by the same rules as the Euro-clan. Heck, China could make something out of this deal, if they decided to hop in.
Who do you think is down there at c12880 and further down waitingā¦???
20% and 4% haircut you have all heard about - there is a little āput inā being discussed - voluntary haircut.
Who would want to take a voluntary haircut? -
Ah ha - in exchange for a piece of the bank give away a little for the possibility of gaining much in the future ā¦ now there is an idea ā¦ will there be take up? ā¦ maybe, maybe not, a bit like trading forex.
Earlier I was thinking of the difference in being a gambler and a trader, the gambler in me is demanding that I go long fibre, the trader in me doesānt disagree but says that since this Cyprus scenario is fluid, but requires a positive outcome, some need for risk control is very much required.
On the outcome - the Church aspect is not to be discounted, but ultimately the Euro meeting now on will be the decider.
It seems a straw poll of the legislature in Cyprus has been taken, so the current meeting is the biggie.
Yes Kuzia, what has interested me recently has been the fact that Euro remained reasonably strong, even in the face of the Cypriot story - which was mentioned many months ago, it didānt come out of the blue.
The big guys have been anticipating a positive outcome, having said that we have a nice little edge in that we know as much as they do.
Shorted at 1.3037 on euro TP 1 @ 20 pips and 40 pips done. Final TP is at 1.2980 figure. Thatāll be it for the the day for me.
Update: Ok iāve taken 80% profits. A fib from Fridayās NY low to todayās high hits OTE sweet spot on the pivot 1.29610 to the pip, which also seems to be a moderate strength SR level. COT shows crazy net short on USDX so iām thinking of going long thereā¦hmm
i would be careful with that long. looks to me like fiber is reaching for 1.2920 before going up again. maybe low of the week tomorrow LO. expecting an upweek afterall. but what do i know still short from 1.3015
Yeah TopFroxxā¦ I ended up taking final TP from my original short, saw the PA on that pivot, didnāt justify a long just yetā¦might make a new low tomorrow. I think iām done for the day and should head to bed.
Very good day today though, 80 pips. Iām doing these ones more oftenā¦ hopefully another few weeks and iāll be ready to go live