not much going on
closed fiber at couple of pips, took 17 in cable, waiting for nyo
good luck Fuzzbuggy!
thats a nice start to live trading
Iâve just closed my Fiber short. TP1 (only one position as itâs Friday).for 38 pips at the AR low.
Started the AS with a Bullish Bias until reviewing the Bond charts which provided some âhintsâ, which is all they ever are, that ST Bias should switch to Bearish. PA at end LOKZ provided the entry opportunity. Attached is also zip for the extra resolution.
BondsFiber Divergence.zip (67.6 KB)
Nice work Rod, nice use of bonds - helped with your bias - what they are good for.
[QUOTE=âIbePippin;482381â]
â "US Yields Increase = Bullish US$"
yields go down when bond traded value goes up, yield up when bond down
us yields up, bonds are down, money flows out of US bonds, would be bearish dollar and bullish cable/fiber
â "If yields are dropping and one of the 3 yields fails to make a lower low, look for US$ to bounce (vice versa)"
US yields drop and one fails to lower low, the one failing could signal reversal for all 3, therefore could expect yields to reverse up and, see above, USD down
â "As yields are increasing that is bullish for foreign currencies, as they drop it is bearish for foreign currencies"
yes
â "Risk is on when yields are going up and risk is off wen yields are declining because foreign currencies chase yield"
yes US yields up is bond down, dollar out of bonds, flows into shares and foreign currency, risk on. selling dollar and buying foreign currency takes the pair up (cable, fiber). Risk off is reverse scenario, money buys usd, dollar up pairs down
â "Yields dropping is a risk off scenario, meaning we are looking for sells until we see a divergence in the yields"
yes, yields down is risk off, you decide what it means 
â "The US$ should be rallying as yields drop"
yield drop is bond up, usually usdx up
to recap, normally:
yield up is bond down, dollar down, risk on, shares up, pairs up
yield down is bond up, dollar up, risk off, shares down, pairs down
otherwise there is a divergence somewhere between bonds, dollar index and pairs
my understanding of it![/QUOTE]
Wow thanks I will study this and look to see if I can find where I got these notes!
Thank you rod. And thank you for the large resolution.
Yes, I agree to be honest. Generally I will keep my risk exposure consistent but I am guilty of tightening stops too quickly. Going over previous results I can see thst happening far too often.
peterma, I looked through my ICT binder and my problem was I was looking for a direct relationship with Bonds like USDX. I will start looking at Bonds as pressure. If I expect a bounce in Fiber and USDX, I will then look to Bonds to see if there is a corresponding confirming bounce.
Thanks again petermn and Ibepippin
Bill
Rod, Thanks for the look into how you use Bonds. This is how I use USDX and how I will start looking to Bonds. I will dress up my Bond charts just as I do USDX and EURUSD.
Thank you
Bill
Hey Green! Had any takers with this? Never been to Bulgaria but itâs been on my hit list for a while!!
Nope! none whatsoever, which has surprised me a little, but Iâm happy to host a gathering of just one person if they turn up 
I think a lot of peoples perception of Bulgaria is a bit twisted by the media, but to me itâs a fantastic place.
Just got back from walking the dog & looking at the snow on the mountains & decided Iâm off 4WDâing and camping this week! After all the temps are mid 20âs & heading for 30 next week! 
Donât take it as a slight against your homecountry of Bulgaria, but more of a general reluctance to meet-up with strangers over the internet (especially intercontinental strangers). But I do admit⌠when I read Bulgaria, I wasnât immediately thinking of white-sand beaches and Marguaritas LOL
I read Bulgaria was the best country to retire to. Because of how cheap things are there.
Ahem⌠you are all invited to retire here, things are cheap ⌠ish, weather is âŚwet and cold sometimes, we have the beautiful Mourne Mountains and thousands of places where you can stop and stare - oh, almost forgot, G8 soon in Fermanagh, special places available to all babypips members
Green, your idea is good but in truth we can achieve a lot through a good thread such as this one where thankfully trolls stay away.
We hear so often how retail traders are generally losers, I was reading recently a trader for one of the MMâs telling how communication to them is vital, sometimes I think thatâs where we fall down, we get tied up in ego instead of talking and helping each other (not this thread I hasten to add).
I figure, Green, that those of us who really want to learn and be successfull somehow sense that communication is important, maybe this is why your idea arose in the first place.
Not taken as a slight at all ArtVandalay, Actually this isnât my home country, Iâm from New Zealand, which btw is a far more dangerous place to live & (more importantly) I canât free camp or 4WD my way across it 
But I donât wanna derail this great thread on that subject soâŚ
Petema you are right when you say:
"Green, your idea is good but in truth we can achieve a lot through a good thread such as this one where thankfully trolls stay away.
We hear so often how retail traders are generally losers, I was reading recently a trader for one of the MMâs telling how communication to them is vital, sometimes I think thatâs where we fall down, we get tied up in ego instead of talking and helping each other (not this thread I hasten to add).
Iâm sort of wondering how much more we could gain by discussing in person the various concepts each of us has learned
&
I figure, Green, that those of us who really want to learn and be successfull somehow sense that communication is important, maybe this is why your idea arose in the first place."
Yup & also an attempt to forge a stronger bond, It could be a lot of fun!
IyaJenkei
Yeah itâs pretty cheap here for sure, I remember a few years back sitting down to a nice hot meal with bread & a coffee for less then 1.5 Euro! This wasnât in a tourist area & prices have gone up since but you get the idea 
A trading group is only as strong as its weakest player. And given the ânewbie-gearedâ presentation & environment, itâs hard to get anything of a group nature off the ground. You canât even identify your strongest players, because they are instantly swamped by starving hopefuls desperate for âproofâ of success. Even in a group of skilled traders, variants such as timeframe preference, availability, and tools utilized will diminish the potential benefits in productivity.
The week ended with an apparent crack in correlation between the USDX and US Bonds, mostly due the the Fiberâs high weighting.
Supposing some significant move next week, imho some evidence for a Short Bias on the Fiber and probably also Cable ie risk off.
Charts below - two separatre feeds-
USDX compared Fiber and Cable H1
US5Y compared Fiber and Cable H1
Yeah, you got to love them temperatures when they warm up! Enjoy the 4WD / Camping this weekend.
this post seems complicatedâŚ
can you please go into a lot more detail of all the things we canât do?