Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

correlation this morning…
it’s 6.15 gmt and eurgbp chart looks this way:

suggesting correlation between fiber and cable. the 5 min chart for those two show divergence at the lows, you guys can check how fiber did lower lows into 2850, and cable barely nicked the low at support 5235. It’s a long signal (either that or 'm readin too much into a 5 min chart!)

took a long, lets see what up

still in these long trades, someone keeps selling the cable into support line for whatever reasons they have, was tempted to close but then looked at overnight news on the jpy. They came out well at 14.2% in the green and the yen sells out in europe?.. that is curious and bizarre. so i’ll keep these lazy longs for just a bit more

took 20 fiber at day-open, just to be ‘sure’ :wink:


continued:

don’t like scalping for 20’s but sometimes it’s the better i can do.
a second fiber long taken at ote retrace on the prior swing, up 20 and closed.
Another trade, the last one a loss of 6 taken real quick.
pip target made. i’ll keep watching the long side till after nyo and fade anything too obvious!

(posted quite a bit today, if too much gimme a shout)


Nice work IbePippin! :slight_smile:

PS. I’m comming back strong soon, just took some time of after some seriusly stupid trades :stuck_out_tongue:

Good luck you all!

AS played out text book - no boat rocking, nervous to the upside.

I was bottom picking yesterday - seems I was not on my own - lots of orders at 2850 - hope all followed the 30 pip/ high of recent swing tp rule, those that didn’t were swallowed, those that bottom picked at 2800 and followed the rule also triumphed.
Those that shorted at the AS high (an old favourite of ppfx if I remember correctly), really triumphed, just as Iya said - pretty solid s/r, especially when two consec AS highs line like that.

After all this time and the mucking around by some its great to see you guys keeping this thread going, although I don’t contribute, I do read this thread and still learn from it. This year is the first year I’ve made gains every month so far. Stopping revenge trading was a big step forward for me. VERY VERY HARD but getting there keep it up and thanks to all.

I’d like to re iterate and maybe follow through on a point. It’s not enough to know how these tools works guys. You HAVE to get in the market with them on your own. That’s the only way you’ll build confidence enough to use them. And one or two times won’t cut it. You’ll need weeks.

Peter, which was this 30-pip rule? not sure that i remember
thanks!

are they going to start chasing yields sometime soon?


I am thinking soon. Everyone is screaming to buy the dollar. SMT divergence on the daily chart b/t fiber / USDX. 4/4 highs in USDX smashed this past week, but fiber not willing ( not yet at least ) to give up the 4/4 lows.

In some of the videos if ICT was trading against the trend he would TP at 30 pips, bring SL to B/E - with the motto that it’s possible to be wrong (not a bottom for example) and yet be paid.

I think we are forming a top at USDX

may 20, bank holiday in France Germany and Switzerland,
so not much should be happening in eur and chf. don’t know how you guys feel about ‘shoulds’ in trading

the eurgbp chart this morning, with pre-London open in the red box, there is a bit of an uptrend quite clear actually with higher highs and lows, so a couple of things to infer

  • not likely a day to rely upon fiber-cable smt divergence
  • whichever (eur;gbp) set of pairs and direction could come up today, i’d pick the euro pair to buy and the gbp pair to sell


at this point 'm not selling fiber or cable for sure,
so one choice would be ‘buy fiber’. If i wanted to sell something, what would that be…
gbpjpy, or gbp something else, perhaps gbpchf some traders like that pair. i look at usdjpy to see the yen and this is the chart: big break on downside (though structure not yet broken), gap down (though not closed yet) and generally going down. Seems that a gbpjpy short could work


this, plus assumption that any potential up move in cable would likely wait for the gbp set of news tomorrow, was basis for short pound-yen at 155.99. we’ll see how it goes, don’t think a large move, though could be enough for daily target

to wrap-up,

5 hours later, it looks like i caught the Judas short and not the main move short.
never mind it, the 30-pip rule! and low expectation for this trade made the target for today.

i did expect there would be another entry short and looked for it at 79 retrace, and again at fade of prior high, and couldn’t get one. no reason to worry, tomorrow is another day!


Some observations today’s action:

US30yr reached support today 144.20, US10yr couldn’t make it down to 131.91 - bullish Bond prices.

Fibre reacted down off the 79 fib/ big fig, usdx reacted up off ote sweet spot 83.70 at same time.

Cable reacted down off ote/79 fib at same time.

Above reactions at NY close,

Usd/Jpy still in driver’s seat, refused to pass the 79 fib at 102.16 - I’ll check this cross early tomorrow morn before LO for some guidance, if I see bullishness then I’ll look to go short fibre, or maybe even cable.

Meant to add to above - usd/chf reached 62 fib this evening and reacted, also sitting on weekly pp, interesting in how it worked the weekly pp this past couple of weeks.

Yields end of day perfcharts ; 10y and 30y higher high from 14th May high 5y failed so far

good call on the short!

I’m going long now @ 1.2865, it looks to me like a classic LO buy setup.
First raid the stops, next go down to raid the stops low. It touched the 200% extension level for yesterdays high to asian low, and retraced 30pips.
Now an OTE formed just at the sweet spot. Final TP is 1.2918