For someone as intelligent as you, I’m sure you know the point I was making.
I have been following along for some time, I never allow personalities to cloud my thinking and learning, I only look at the message, zero interest in the messenger.
I know this sounds mercenary but this business is mercenary.
Your thread’s message has an element which I find interesting - how to deal with fear (often represented by my SL, and greed (often represented by my TP).
Your use of fundamentals is not new to me but your application of tight TP and long SL is thought provoking.
Had I simply dismissed your thread because of personalities then I would have missed an opportunity to learn.
Now back to trading - was away all weekend ( Rod Stewart in concert 
) I see that Mr Gone would have been right - all the bottom pickers on Fri got caught.
I found out that Mr Gone uses voodoo and mental psyche as his trading strategy lol… Well he said it was hard to explain how his strategy works so I gave a name for it lol… Nah, as long as it works for him it’s fine…
Yeah, he was the first person came to mind when on Thurs evening I saw the higher highs and higher lows on the 1 hr Fibre.
Well even “IF” he made that so fancy $1,000,000 it doesn’t matter to me because that money is not going to my account lol… Besides, he only get one chance of reputation from me and he blew it… and so his methods.
Don’t worry, I will be fine :)…I hope you are more focus on your own trading than watching/following him because I don’t want you to get disappointed
Still learning this daily chart reading, but the 1 hr is like the Mourne Mountains to me - a constant magnet.
Looking at Friday’s rise in Fibre, it came off an ote on the daily at 2980, repeated up at 3102 which in itself is an ote on the 1hr.
Well as I mentioned I was suspicious of the rise, so as all the ‘gurus’ living and deceased often counsel - how far up will it go if it’s a ‘bulge’ or ‘judas’ or whatever.
Hmm… back to the magnet, most recent high - mid fig 3150 to most recent low 2980 - the 1 hr range in which we are dealing, could we climb to the halfway point between 62 and 79 fib (my feed at 3103), better known in this thread as the as the ote?
To answer my own question, of course it could rise to 3102 (ote on my feed) but as Pizza pointed out on his thread on Thur the fundamentals were negative, it should never have been on the rise in the first place, the sells were sitting up there waiting.
Exactly, fading the false moves up / down that are contrary to market structure on it’s own can make money as a strategy. Doing it consistently is what challenges most.
Yep, sometimes the task can be helped by viewing the Euro as a single entity and not just as as a cross.
My work often means that I take a ‘view’ or ‘bias’ on the Euro for which I use the daily Eur/Gbp
If you have a look there you can see what happened Fri with the euro and fibre.
86.00 will be broken in that cross, probably in the next few weeks, maybe even in the next week, lots of commercial interest there so could become a support.
Yet when you look at the daily charts there are pin bars etc which they all say means it has to go down.
This is the difficulty I have with the daily - maybe even with candlesticks
I try to stay clear of Fridays… but check out this little set up! I actually wanted to sell the euro but was a little to scared, seeing it drive up through 1.310. So I took the pound trade instead. Pretty classic ICT set up. Lots of money to be made using some of these methods as long as your bias was short this week…
NYO Five minute chart… Half risk because of my dislike for Fridays.
What is really very difficult to me is when we have a strong bias and we are fading the false moves (as you so aptly put it) and the market is going into more of a range. In the ranging market its hard to find what a false move is…
EU press release today:
“The Commission takes the preliminary view that the banks acted collectively to shut out exchanges from the market because they feared that exchange trading would have reduced their revenues from acting as intermediaries in the OTC market.”
The preliminary result of anti trust investigation by the EU Commission covering a period from 2006 to 2009.
press release here:
Yes, when the market moves into it’s range it’s gets a little more difficult and I tend to either leave it alone until I can see if we are accumulating or distributing the price and await the clear break in direction, then I’ll resume trading the false moves. If I am trading it, it’s small positions trading the support and resistance within the range.
Take this week, lots of key news coming out, so a perfect time for price to go into accumulation / distribution. I’m more inclined to wait and see how the market structure looks once the announcements have been made than to try and guess the direction. Over the past 6 months I’ve seen price time and again give plenty more opportunities to get back in rather than trying to guess the bottom / top reversal point.
Sorry, been a long workday and i’m rambling before getting some shuteye.
yes. My thoughts for this week is to allow it to develop a range then trade a turtle soup or reflection pattern. We will see if i get it.
Posted that on the 30th, as you can see, the pin bar daily was on the 28th - the one I was looking at - the text books all say a pin bar at resistance can mean only one thing - mind you nobody told the Euro.
Gbp being sold, some Euro buying, has been this past week, everyone thinks that 85.90 is solid resistance.
So on fibre - the heavies can only be doing one of three things, they are accumulating, distributing or are flat.
The third scenario means no profit potential so that’s out - so is it no. 1 or no. 2
I was going to post pre this LO that if price rises and then falls that it would convince me of no.1 - so I’m convinced
(my bias is formed on the basis of 1hr charts eur/gbp, eur/chf, eur/jpy , sp500, gold and US10yr price)
Fly in the ointment is usd/jpy and usdx. The usdx chart I’m attributing to the cable usd/cad and usd/jpy action (34%)
This is all pre-nfp thinking - I suspect slightly weaker numbers.
Pete, I don’t want to be a hard guy, but??? “So on fibre - the heavies can only be doing one of three things, they are accumulating, distributing or are flat”.
Are there any other trading options for anybody???
The Ever Trying VIPER
Wow. Been busy but this thread got a little nasty while I was away.
LOL - was just quoting Richard Wyckoff - also I threw in the term ‘heavies’ because he figured they wore 7 league boots, whatever that is, but he said they made a loud clump clump and to listen out for them and tip toe in behind.
Mind you he also said to watch out because they were known to turn around abruptly
Ahh - the good old days - did you know that he figured 90% of retail traders failed - I’ll bet that’s where that figure that has been bandied about this past 100 years came from.
BTw 1 hr fibre most recent high to today’s low - price rose back up to midway 62 - 79 fib - that ote thing again.
Hi guys, Im Apex.
This is one of the most popular threads on this forum, which tells me that its a really good thread.
I became active here after ICT was banned, and I was hoping someone here could explain why he got banned in the first place? Also, I havent read through all 800+ pages here so ill have a look soon to see if I can get an idea of how you guys trade here.
Happy holidays.
Apex.