Was attributed to a certain Jon Hilsenrath from the Wall St Jnl and and comments that the Fed are on track to keep the bond buying in place at next week’s meeting.
If you look at my last post this thread the charts were saying something similar - just one of the reasons why I can never understand why anyone would wish to separate news and ta.
That post also sums up why I didn’t go short at the fig on cable, and why Eur/gbp is happy to sit at 86.00 support.
I posted the above at the end of June - price did in fact break the 86, went to 87 and has since remained above 86.
It is reluctant to go on up and may take another week or so before doing so.
How did I know 86.00 would become support? … simple - exporters like round numbers, makes life easy when pricing sales, so when you get offered a nice round number you are inclined to do business at that level.
The round number being offered this past month has been 85.00 (actual exchange rate is always below inter-bank rate)
Outlook? well today’s rate being offered was 85.50
Interesting perspective. Its interesting when one is doing business other then Forex and finds things that relate or explain price action such as your thoughts on round numbers.
A thought that has been going through my mind recently is using fib retracment levels to measure the kind of “deal” I get within any certain price swing. An example or this is if i am looking for shorts then I will want to short anywhere above the 50% retracment. If I can get a price that is 68% or 72% then that’s even a better “deal”.
This can be applied to any business that has inventory. If the owner of a used car lot is going to an auction to pick up a few used trucks then he will know the price “range” that particular model of truck is going for. This range in price can be a fluid number but as long as he is able to buy it below 50% of whatever the price range is, he will do well. I know this is a rough example and the car lot owner can make money on a vehicle even if he buys at the top of the price range just by marking the price up for the general public. I still think the concept holds true though. Just food for thought.
Price being offered now at 86.00, we sell as price rises, our last sell was at 86.50 (when price was last where it is now), many will look for that or for 87.00
I often think this is the reason for the rebounds at round no.s, probably lots of exporter sales orders at those levels, remember exporters paid in euro, need to exchange back to gbp, as gbp falls it becomes ‘cheap’ so we buy gpb and sell the now more valuable euros - but always on an averaging basis - as we get offered a higher rate (at a round no.) we transact.
If eur/gbp starts to fall that means gbp becomes more expensive so orders are lumped together before it falls too much, these are sell eur, buy gbp so accentuates the price fall even more.
e.g if I had an order to buy gbp at 87,88 and 89 - if I thought price was turning I would lump the first 2 orders at best quote - say 86 - probably most others doing the same so price of eur/gbp falls even faster.
(just my theory on this cross that I monitor every day)
Have just put up a Sell Limit order at Fiber 1.3278(2 pips under the 80 level), this is also OTE from yesterdays range and SR1.
Market structure is also down on 4H, and Im expecting a divergence between cable and fiber, cable taking out yesterdays stops, and fiber not doing it(thats why Im choosing fiber, since if that happens, fiber will have selling pressure).
We are also in a possible OTE short in both Cable and Fiber(for some time). Ive also set a time limit on it for tomorow at the end of NYO session…
I would hesitate to take any buy signals on either cable or fiber. The euro is coming into some good resistance on the daily and pound is near a daily toe to short. This week im going to mainly watch price.
I see that Cable is in a potential OTE short area, but fiber is hitting the 1.34 resistance…
But most of retailers are heavy short(from Oanda and MyFXBook), and since we are already in long marketstructure in both, I will be looking for buy signals this week… Good Luck:)
Hi Richard - I don’t trade Mons but I’m watching USD, I suspect the tapering for Sep may raise it’s head, I’m looking at Tue for a weekly high at maybe 3380-3420, Monday’s action and news may decide for me.
Retail sales for US may be positive so watch out for that on Tue at lunch time, also GBP y/y cpi morning Tue and to boot German sentiment 1/2 hr later also on Tue.
Hi there just wonderd where every one was and how they are doing McWally are you still trading and if so how is it going. myself not traded this month yet only cos been on hols but by the looks of it have not missed much!
After watching fiber and cable today, fiber was making lower lowes usd/index higher highs but cable was not wanting to go lower smt divergence at nyo cable bounced off mid piviot a good set up I thought.