US 10yr yields continuing to rise - slight blip back at 14.30 gmt - but continuing upward momemtum since that.
The inefficient action was the judas swing down? Why is that move inefficient versus the real swing up? Would you call that price action efficient?
Thank you. That’s very clear. The rebalancing price action is generally more efficient.
Hey dont have to show this video… not for the sake of those guys who dont believe you.
But I would have loved to see the review when USDindex moved (retraced ) very little ( after touching the 80.1 level ) but the 5 and 10 yr T notes moved up all the way back up.
Thats good and help full.
Yes Sladhafx has it spot on.
Notice how we pulled back just before a key level of resistance 103.80. This is where you can reasonably expect price to run above this level.
We then have the Judas Swing down, it runs the asian range low.
Support at yesterdays Asian Range high @ 103.50
We have Reflection.
Central Pivot point.
Time of day. Bang on the 3am EDT candle.
This is prime stuff guys.
There is more than enough with all that above you don’t need the inefficiency in the Judas move down to tell you the London Swing is going up but the inefficiency concept is comforting knowing that price should come back up and rebalance. The move back up is smoth and controlled, the bars are a lot smaller. Price goes up and down, up and down while heading in one direction. The Judas Swing is just basically 1 aggressive bar down.
nice move down… wow!
didnt trade yesterday as I had to finally catch some sleep and rest…was kind of in a coma I think;)
I currently feel extremely humble and feel like I just started trading a week ago or so… (felt different before my losing streak;))
whoever caught that drop on cable - congratulations!
While I knew that the HTF MS is essential - and it has been repeated plenty of times on here… I truly needed a few consecutive losses trading countertrend, to get it into my head.
I do get the importance now!
I will have to rewatch few videos, as I chose to neglect directional bias - and I was doing surprisingly well in my trading while doing so until recently!
I do think I understand the essence of the swing high needs to be broken for MS to turn bullish and vice versa… but I still need to put it to use in a practical manner to really get completely familiar with it and to make it come naturally in my trading.
If I remember correctly, ICT stated he likes to wait for H4 and D1 to turn bearish/bullish before changing bias, but it is obviously down to each individuals strategy on how to go about…
Could somebody be so kind and help me understand why and at which point you guys decided to look for sells yesterday?
In hindsight (as I wasnt at the charts yesterday…) I can see the lower highs made, and on my feed there even have been lower lows when price moved below AR. However I have originally marked the october 9th low at 1.5975 as the level that needs to be broken for me to become a bear. Which reminds me to ask: how do you NOT trade counter trend without missing out on severely substantial moves - I am currently not worried about missing out that much, but at some point later, those moves will make a big difference in performance if caught…
I am currently doing very badly, but I feel like I need this step back in order to move forward… While I was doing alot better the past 10 months without focusing so heavily on bias with a win ratio of more than 80%! I needed this series of losses to understand that my old strategy might not be sustainable in the long run… now I just need to get things going in my way again;)
I would really greatly appreciate if you guys could help me understand at which point yesterday and why you changed your bias to bearish.
cheers
edit: by the way… I do see the bear OTE and I did expect a bearish retracement after such a long rally up… but what Im missing is the HTF bearish bias at that point when the OTE was happening, in order to NOT countertrend trade…
thanks for the explanations
I dont think there was an overly strong bearish bias as such (at least, I didnt see one on the lower time frame, but check out the weekly chart), however, during my weekly analysis, I had written down 1.6170 level as a possible level of key resistance (62% retracement on the weekly chart + 79% retracement of the current swing high (5th Oct) to the low on 10th Oct on the 4H chart. Its also within 15 pips of the 1.6180 institutional. Along with that, the OTE for the smaller timeframe was also around this point too. Due to all these key levels coming together I figure it should be a good place to get short, especially after the huge rally…
I never expected price to reach this high, but that GBP/USD had some impressive momentum yesterday morning, it was stalling around the 1.6160 level and I thought, “it’ll never hit the 1.6170 level” 
Wish I held on until NY close!
thanks for the reply mate
I did see all the overwhelming signals to go short and in my previous strategy I would have been in there most likely… BUT if Im gonna write down on my big list of rules on my wall “NO COUNTER TREND TRADES” then I will have to stick with it… currently I am very confused on if I really should put that rule on my board… If I will not follow it 100% of the time then I wont put it on there…
maybe I misunderstood how to determine MS but considering the way I understand how to do it, I have a feeling currently that people on here who are very strongly voicing the importance of NOT doing any countertrend trading, are doing counter trend trading themselves… and they have the right to of course, and maybe it is not countertrend trading in their strategy or their understanding… this is why I would love to see some people on here who took that successful short explaining when/why their bias turned bearish (it is my understanding that signals are working only properly in sync with the htf MS… this is why even with all the short signals Im looking for the exact moment where htf MS changed to bearish for people here)
I am really trying to figure this out… and I am not sure if I can really make this work for me without any countertrend trades at all…
cheers
maybe a “If counter trend trading, 30 pips MAX, 70% TP @ 15/20 pips + move SL to BE”. (fill in the numbers with whatever you’re comfortable with)
Sure, you’ll probably be stopped out more, but you’ll also have some profit to show for it.
I took a risky short at the start of the week on the Fiber (a few others did the same), however, if I am to trust my own analysis (and more importantly, learn from any mistakes), I need to take the trades at these predetermined levels should they coinside with higher time frame key resistance (in this case) levels.
Took profits at 20 pips and got stopped out on the rest. As usual risk AND trade management are so important, especially when going against the current MS. You need to react fast to lock in profits and then let it ride.
Just remember, going with the flow you’re more likely to be up 30/40 pips almost instantly (usual within an hour) when price rebounds off the key levels. Its also easier trading in sync with everyone else 
(the smart money)
Yes what I will try the next few weeks is the following:
I will go back to do counter trend trades but only at lower risk…
and I will keep my countertrend trades limited to mostly HTF reversals,OTEs, and hardcore SRs such as yesterday…
I got abit carried away I think after my series of losses…
The main reason for those losses where my limit of patience after 2 weeks of being flat, and my tiredness eceeding a certain point… I was then looking for all sorts of reasons and things I do wrong and maybe, it isnt the right approach to completely abolish a winning strategy (overall) after 3-4 lost trades…
I will now try to get back to my old strategy but include the many lessons I have learned these past 2 weeks… And I will put more thought into HTF MS in the future, but in certain instances I will still consider countertrend trades.
I also have tried to make Purplepatch’s indicator work for me… and while I can see its potential, I have the problem that I can’t stop focusing too much on any indicators that are on my chart… this is why I have to keep them to a minimum.
Maybe at some later stage of my trading I can overcome this shortcoming on my end, and give it a try again.
Those last 2 weeks have been amazing in terms of lessons learned - as I tend to learn more in conjunction with pain… I lost 5.5% in those past 2 weeks, but thanks to my small current account size, it was a very cheap educational 2 weeks!
I’ll call it a week and get some more rest and family time in… just wrote 2 A4 pages of notes for things I need to watch out for (especially in my psychology) going into the new week and ahead…
cheers and a good weekend to y’all
This is the most important, just randomly trading against the trend will never work, but if you stick to the HTF patterns, then you’re more than likely to get a reasonable bounce (price likes to respect the levels). Thats not to say its always going to work, but it does increase your chances of 20 or so pips before it continues on its way.
Also, why dont you trade with 0.5% on each trade? While the monetary gains will be low, getting the experience of placing trades and getting your confidence up in your own analysis will far outweigh that. This is the most important thing I’ve had to learn. Learn to be a trader and the money will flow in after that. Dont worry about the balance for now. Learn how to do it and the money/profit will look after itself
Hey bro - can you explain this to me or is there like a video that teaches these inefficiency concepts? 
Watch the Chris Lori’s “Characteristics of FX Price Behavior” , think that can help a bit.
Chris Lori.com | Members | Forex Training, Currency Trading
Hmm… so we should see 6080 - 6100 relatively soon as per the 15 min.
Or switch to daily - in the whole spectrum of 2012 the theory only failed once i.e. May 15th.
When I first saw this video I thought ’ is he right?’, do ‘gaps’ always get at least half filled?
Other mentors follow a similar teaching, Sam Sneiden says that orders get left behind in the gap (inefficiency), price is then engineered back to collect those (not nescessarily the actual same but similar) orders.
I would say that this is a htf price behaviour of value.
Hi, I just watched that video today, and it looks genius… But I have no idea how to trade it or any rules, have you managed to make a strategy out of this concept? In case, could you share it, maybe open a new thread on the concept?
Would be greatly appreciated 
(It looks really interesting, for anyone curious, its in the free section at Chris Loris website, Chris Lori.com | Members | Forex Training, Currency Trading )
[EDIT] The movie is called “Characteristics of FX Price Behaviour”