Plus the fact that Chris Lori stated we could see Aussie go Lower for the next 6 Months or so I had we looking for a possible entry point ever since…:53:
Hi Piphanger count back 4 days back from where your blue line starts at that point it is lower than where your blue line is meaning the blue line is a slightly higher low - what do you think ?
Also just cos Chris Lori says its going down does not mean a thing He can get it at times wrong we need to trust our own instincts.
Regards
Drew
Sorry for not putting up any charts Babypips does not allow me as I have not posted enough to be able too, but if you put up a weekly chart and place on that chart a stochastic oscillator set at 8,3,3 does it look Bearish for a big move down ? By the way I am not a great lover of indicators but when opened up like this then momentum is to the upside or lots of distribution and ranging before a move down, just my feel on this
Regards
Drew
I’m not sure what you mean by this, i’m assuming your saying the daily was making higher highs and higher lows, but it has to do this if it’s going to get up into the OTE region…?
You say we have to go with our own instints, well this is my own instinct…The trade I took was taken with my understanding of what ICT is teaching, and i would like to believe he would have taken the same trade…I could be wrong, but how will I ever know? I guess once i get stopped out…
Your second post, i don’t use 8,3,3…I use the settings ICT told us to use, but yes i see what you mean…Now look at my chart and look at the Daily stoch indicator, does that look bearish to you?
It’s still muddy waters for me and keep trying to learn every day…I appreciate that comments…
Hi Michael, if you don’t mind and have some spare time would you kindly pop by to 301 Moved Permanently and perhaps gives us your views. Many thanks
Excellent post piphanger we trail stops close to the same (and I am by no means a pro here). The only real thing I do that you dont mention is when I get to a Profit target (I will go into further detail on this in another post) I will tighten up my stop really tight (this will typically end my trade) if it dont get hit then it go on for big gains if it does hit it stop well that was my target anyway.
In response to your previous reply to me (post 1806) I was just checking because you stated a OTE to go long on the daily. And unless I am blind I didnt see an OTE to go long long on the daily. It does look pretty on your 15 minute though. That what I was pointing out I think some people are staying on lower time frames and just zooming out thinking you will see a daily trend. I was just point out that this is simply not true and you must look at the actual daily chart. You can get away with looking at the 4 hr but I recomend going to the daily. I just wanted to be sure you were.
Thanks now I will get into how I look for market structure/flow (bias whatever you want to call it) as it is different from what ICT explains here but all of this came from ICT just tweaked a little to fit me and my pair along with my style of trading. First off I do not use Williams fractals. Not saying they are not important but I will explain why I dont use them here shortly. With this said I use swing points (major swings) on the daily. I am not an intaday trader I swing trade ( or try to anyway some trade are better than others). Here are a couple examples of market flow/structure to me
Daily AU chart (I will get into my trade I took here in a sec I want to show how I got bias first)
Lets start from left to right here. First look at the blue trend line drawn this is there just to illustrate we are having lower highs so flow is down. Now lets get into that first blue circle I drew the red line to show it is a resistance level (if you look more to the left you will see it a significant level of resistance) now price did not take this level out (missed by a few pips) but because it tested so hard I will look at it. I would prefer to see it broke but it is not a requirement. Now lets look at the red circle. As you can see price dropped into OTE (but if you look all the way to the left we are at support). In order to have an OTE this means price failed to break the previous swing. This sounds good in hind sight but how do you trade this when the right side of your chart is a black hole? Well lets look at the next area (where I took my trade off of)
First lets look at the swing in the middles of my 2 market up areas (sorry shold have pointed it out in the chart but it means nothing besides its a swing). Now you have in the blue circle, the first swing down (where the red line begins) price drops down to test a intermediate swing (shown by the white line) then pops up to retest the high (end of red line in the blue circle). What is this? It is now an area of consolidation. Why is it consolidating?.
Now you can see price (may have) failed to retest the high forming ote. Note the long red line across the chart. This is pointing to a pretty nice area of resistance. Ok now how do you know price was going to react here and go further down? You dont thats where trade management comes in (see below for the trade I took)
Here is a daily zoomed in on the trade I took
Now here you can see the swing down then pops back up and forms that inverted hammer. Well even though price didnt break the previous high it failed to close above it. Then price drops and does close below the previous swing low. This gives me reasonably doubt that prices are going lower. But how do you confirm this? The way I trade I am looking to get in at about the 50% mark of the hammers wick. That a 50 pip stop which is not bad considering I am looking to take out the low of the previous swing (about 1.0150) thats a hell of a R:R. But I am not guaranteed to get this. So What do you do?
Well here is my entry on this trade the 15 min
Here you can see we had a nice bullish candle that actually broke ote and the resistance level I marked but the next candles made me interested with the inverted hammer. Then almost got the 50% mark of that wick. Not the best entry I have ever made but that could have been a stop of less than 10 pips. Looking to make 300+ pips thats a deal worth taking.
Even if price does pull up my first TP was 1:1. Now on this trade I put my stop above the 100% fib (for added safety) but even then it was a stop of 20 pips. Since I entered 2 lots first target is at 40 PIPs (risked 2 lots at 20 pips so if I was stopped thats 40pips) I was not home to cash out at 40 pips so I had to settle for 80 pip (darn) moved stop to past be at a consolidation level and was taken out today. I think I got 20 pips or something off the second lot. Not bad.
So there you have it I am going to copy and paste this to my thread as it contains some stuff I feel will be useful there and I dont feel like typing anymore
Hey Ph, Can you tell me what livestream app you are using on your phone? My search only comes up with livestram for producers? Thanks
Ya I mean I see the higher timeframe analysis, this rally from the low down at 1.050 looks really suspect to me but on the otherhand it has been really persistant on slowly making new highs. Given that current price action is slow and rationale I would therefore expect price to break the swing low down at 1.0330 turning market flow bearish on the daily and then work its way back up to OTE at ± 1.0450 where I would look to get short on anticipation of a short term swing high forming, but until it does that I will still lie in wait.
If you go back to the high in September, this was a climax reversal, price action was very aggressive , a kind of blow off top. I look for this kind of irrationale price behaviour and it often comes along with a pattern on the higher timeframe charts such as the ICT reflection pattern which is by the way the best thing since sliced bread. If I see this I will enter despite market flow/ market structure.The September high blew out the August high a key resistance level after an aggressive run up and faded all the way back down to the 1.0160 lows. I actually prefer faster moving markets as to what we are seeing now in AU.
But getting back to your question about waiting for the daily to turn bearish before entering, I understand where you coming from but given current price behaviour I would expect a gradual working of positions based on that so I would reasonably expect market flow to break on the daily and turn bearish (or market structure, whatever you want to call it, we seem to be using the terms loosley nowdays) and then see another OTE within this higher timeframe OTE before we trade softer. There are no rules that this has to happen we could just keep on going down with getting a retracement. I think this is that grey area in trading where you have to find what works for you.
The short trade at 1.0470 is understandable, price is running into a higher timeframe fib level, ITH resistance level, I mean no problem with that, as long as you take some off the table eliminating risk from the trade and if your view is that price should continue lower then, let it run but be prepared to see price come back some, you might get lucky and it might just keep on running, in which case I would miss my entry and you would be smiling but as ICT said back in his old thread the early bird might catch the worm but it is the second mouse that gets the cheese!:38:
Hi PIPhanger,
What are those values for the stochastic that ICT recommended?
Exactly, I do, MT4 on screen Oanda on the other, for the very reasons you mention.
Try the StochRSI, I’ve made it to show inverted USDX, and the current pairs HTF, it’s quite useful.
When I say USDX, I mean the next best thing, the indicator works on any MT4, it uses the formula for USDX except for the common missing pair on MT4’s I forget which one now, but it works out practically the same.
http://www.purplepatchforex.co.uk/indicators/
Settings are really down to you on your indicators, it depends what you want to see on which timeframe, but generally use the defaults. I tend to have a longer setting if I’m using them.
What do I do with the code 
Save the file to your indicators folder under MT4 and add to chart like usual.
Don’t know whether you found the latest version of the ICT Kill Zone Table. But, in case you didn’t, here’s a link —
In a few days, I’ll post a cleaned-up copy of this table (without the yellow highlighting).
Hi here is my chart for the AUDUSD Looking to short Aggressively “Maybe”
I dont normally trade on Mondays, but I opened a small position on the Fiber, short @ 1.2726, I noticed some SMT divergence this morning, LL made on the Cable, HL made on the Fiber, 15M TF.
50% off at 15 pips so far…
Lets see how this one plays out…
I’m not Piphanger but will let you know I copied his (ICT’s) settings off one of his videos; 14,3,3
Not sure if he always uses these values though.
Thx, I changed it to that now, I like having it at the bottom to look for Divergance
Thanks bro - this is cool! 
Why do you call it USDX though, is it not just a normal stochastic but with awesome clarity? Lol
Edit: Just noticed though that it’s slightly different, check the last bit of divergence (not that it makes any difference on that particular setup)
