stopped at BE after scaling out a tiny profit…
looks like I should have entered fiber manually instead of cable;)
that trade looked good a bit earlier this morning, then ‘claimant count’ news came with large difference to expectation! in the meantime fiber stalling and eur-gbp is star performer
Now have a look at the 1Hr chart and see how crazy that trade is 
My apologies PPF I have removed the post as ICT is not a great fan of 1 minute charts, but I do feel this thing is going up looks like it is taking its time.
Drew…
No need to that, it’s good to put it up, it’s the best way of learning, it don’t matter how you feel though, it wont make it go up 
It always could of course, but …
What I want to get at for you mostly though, is the market maker profile, can you see it on the 1m now?
Whatever time frame you’re trading, you want to always look for entries where the red spot is, still aggressive of course for a 1mn and still very low probability IMO, but always look for the profile.
Did you see the market maker T-REX trying to sneak into the pool yesterday? We had a 35 pip 5m candle that wasn’t news related during London, the red box. The market retraced to about the 80%, allowed the market makers to get in again at a good price then the market ranged. If the market makers got long enough to jump 35 pips is it any wonder the market is going up? Our next major S/R is 1.2820. I got chopped by the deep retracement yesterday for a 1% loss. It was dumb, I didn’t follow my own trading plan. I haven’t gotten in yet because I haven’t found a spot in line with my rules and I didn’t get up early enough to get this morning’s jump.
Yes, you are probably correct, although this seems to be a somewhat different application of the Reflection Pattern, (eg refer ICT video 06-16-12 Reflection is 12min onwards)
The usual application would be to pull the OTE sweet spot down to the intermediate swing low to find the long entry point at 100.
In the latest example Michael seems to be running the Reflection over several (in this case two) intermediate swing lows to find an already formed swing low. He then subsequently makes a predicative Long entry at the 70.5 OTE retrace that follows.
Thanks for the help - there was good reason for me to take that trade in the way I did as it was after a big News release and price does tend to bounce without giving us the entry OTE 5 minute chart - today it was not so quick off the mark -probably people digesting the News before reacting I am now SL at BE at ready to re enter if need be, I would not be too compelled to take a trade at the red dot as resistance lies ahead - I chose my entry as it was the furthest point from the resistance level at 1.5870
This morning I was looking for a short on the AUDUSD but could not get in using the OTE setup on a 5 minute - I could not even get in on a 1 minute I hope it will come back so I can take a short on that one,
When the Banks don’t want you in they seem to make it as hard as possibly - I feel Cable could be set to have a good run - lets see how it plays out.
Regards
Drew…:5:
I had the same idea
Took some off at the asian range high, just incase the US news throws a spanner in the works
i was also eyeing that one but didn’t take it because my bias is long. will enter long around 1.2720ish. imo the push down won’t go much lower
entered only one small position at 1.2725. wanted price to touch the 20 level for bigger entry. stop to BE. news comming up
See 8:20…
:57:
WOW did you see that spike up? 5 min and my trade got stopped out. Just as i was about to take partial profits. At least i locked in 2 pips with my S/L.
I must confess, my account is - 4% and i seem to be doing all the mistake a rookie can make. The problem is i don’t have defined plan of what to look for. Like a trade plan. I need a trade plan so before i enter i can double check if all the criteria is met, then at least i followed my plan and the odds will be with me. Right now i am wild west gun slinger shooting anything that moves:17:
I know i need a plan, i don’t know how to go about making a trading plan, what works what doesn’t. Sometimes support holds sometimes it doesn’t ? Sometimes we see a bounce on support of min 20 pips sometimes it’s only 10 pips and then it continues higher. I see Michael using the fib, so much to his advantage and people getting entries in 5 min with FIb… ME, i just pull here and there confuse my self and end up making mistakes.
So yah i need a plan with step by stem action before making a trade otherwise i feel my yet unrealised fx carrier will come to scratching halt.
one identify support resistance _Already do that regardless…
What about the FIb
Pivots ?
Stoch?
I have tough time identifying SMT divergences as lately the gbp and eur haven’t been quiet moving in tandem? unless i am wrong.
Turtle Soup is a good entry which i used successfully few times, but it does not always offer good trade on smaller time frames…??
Sorry for long winded post i feel overwhelmed, but still want to succeed and know the price action is best way to trade forex!!!
A nice play with the JPY and the COT report.
COT was reaching extremes, OI dropped and see what happened:
The orange line is a SR level from the 19th Sep. Turtle soup entry in LO, weekly low formed and bang, a sweet 100 pips
Yours is a good post and will be helpful.
I’m no expert…
My trading plan is about 11 pages with screen shots where needed, and it isn’t finished yet. I wrote it like I was going to apply for a job at Goldman and they were going to ask me what my trading plan is and why should they entrust money to me. It describes:
- How to establish this weeks bias and a template for anticipating the entire week’s movements.
- What my Sunday routine is and then my daily routine (checking news calendars etc)
- Entry rules: OTE only and only at certain times of day. Trading with the trend is always safer so I will with good written reason get in with a trend at othe levels and times than the rules state.
- Set ups: London open, London close etc.
- How do define then trade a trend
- How to define then trade a range
I don’t include reflection patterns yet because I’m still working on the more basic stuff and I don’t include type 1 and 2 trend divergence because I don’t understand it.
Any trading plan covers these points:
- What is our bias or where are we going?
2.What is the target? - When will we know we were wrong?
- What specific entries do I make, what TP ,SL, do I leave some in for the trend, do I take it all off and where?
Below is the trading plan I wrote Sunday night. As part of the weekly plan, I also recapped last week’s trading in pip totals and observations, but didn’t include that below.
Weekly analysis
Last week’s candle was a week down bar and last week’s day candles had long wicks to the top because of some unusual run ups by Asia.
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The next strong support is at about 1.2620-30. I expect some rally early this week and then the drop for the market to hit that point. The rally is because the USDX is 81.10 or so and it is unlikely that this level will be blown through without a move back to 80.00 at least. Last time the USDX was at 80, the fiber was at 1.2900 or so. I hope we rally this week. I want the USDX to get some pull back before continuing up but I think many traders are looking for a reversal this week for a rally up, which would mean a continuation down, or basically whatever everyone else is expecting is going to be the wrong choice.
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This may be a slightly down week or a ranging week but over all down. Target is 1.2620.
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If we are rallying early in the week, I’ll see this as confirmation the fiber will drop. If we drop early in the week, I’ll see it as confirmation we will rally overall. If we rally over all, that target will be 1.2820-50, or near the last swing high on the daily chart which is also a S/R from Jan 2011.
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Weekly Bias - None or a little down. But since we have had week daily PA to the down side, we may be due for a rally too. I want in at the week’s high, probably 1.2820 and take it to the week’s low, probably 1.2620, leaving some in for the longer term trend.
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Monday: No trades. We want to see what London will do. If there is a run to 1.27 tomorrow morning, maybe we’d buy until the weekly pivot point. On any day this week, if we hit 1.2820 or 1.2900, I’ll sell as I still think we are in a sell program on the larger TF’s. Just as before, we’ll use a small position and leave some of it open longer term to keep scaling into this down trend.
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Tuesday: If Monday is down, we will likely buy London’s stop run with a target of 1.28-1.29. If Monday is up, we will likely sell London’s stop run until at least 1.2620.
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Wednesday: Same plan as Tuesday if the early week stop run hasn’t happened until Tuesday.
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Thursday and Friday: If the market has come down and hit our 1.2620 target or gone past it, we’ll keep looking for rallies to sell. If we are near a new low and especially if we are at the ADR or past it, we will look to trade counter trend near London close for 20-30 pip scalps.
Last week, my plan called the whole PA and I made a personal best of 445 pips with some luck amd some very strict following of the plan. This week, I have been calling it in my trade journal and getting it right but have not followed my plan and have two small losses. We have made the weeks low on Tuesday as expected and we will rally up as expected but I got in at the wrong spot. I was right but still lost money. Polar opposite what ICT is coaching us on.
The spike up is more market maker getting long for the week stuff, I think, and we are blowing by the 50 and the weekly pivot point. This may end up being an up week after all, unless we crash Friday.
good plan, i closed mine about the same place by looking at prior day high. every once in awhile comes a day like this with so much movement in one direction that it’s going to cut short, no pun intended :), trades to the other side. i’m currently retrading, for instance i’m again short at 4747 and basically scalping either side that would let me do that.
edit - i meant 2747 that is
PPF mentioned a few pages ago he is working on levels only for now and moving on to more advanced stuff after he is good at that skill. Very good example. We are trying to guzzle a 5 gal pail of water with ICT’s training and some is bound to spill out. We need to sip and absorb, sip again.
I love that you’re doing screen shots of live trades.
Is it just coincidence or - if you look at the GBPUSD - check the swing on the 5th of September.
It’s very near the ADR low of today. Will they run down the GU to the 1.5825-1.5835 region just before the FOMC meeting?
It’s a very late low of the week than, but I an forgive that if they run it up with 200 pips at that level for the remainder of the week