What are everyone’s thoughts, will the CPI fake inflation number hit double digits, or will inflation level off once the Fed turns off the printing press.
My thoughts are we could see big price drops in the coming months as inventories catch up to and pass demand. Big-ticket items that have seen the biggest price increase could see the biggest price fall
Could be. But might not be until next year? When you say in the coming months, are you saying Q4 of this year? 
No If they are getting close - they’ll change the “calculation”
Let’s look at it from basic principles
Over 50% of kids now go to University and 2/3 of them are women - which means some really dumb women are getting degrees (in useless subjects) and “Need jobs” - so we see “Needs” for “diversity officers” HR, and all sorts of other completely non-productive “Workers” - Then we have “Welfare mums” and somewhere around 10% of the population who simply cannot do anything of any value because of their intellectual inferiority.
Add to that all the “AOC’s” and the “Camel-ah” intellectuals who are making the spending and saving decisions.
So there are then a FEW men (and a lesser number of women) who actually DO SOMETHING productive and are the ONLY ones paying for all the aforementioned parasites.
Now consider - when the parasite is bigger than the dog (which it now is) - How the F***K can you levy enough taxes to pay for the parasite ? [Who insist by the way that since they have "MA’s and “Doctorates” - in their Lesbian Dance theory - they are really intelligent and need to be paid far more than “the dog”
Then you add on the doombrains who have demonised plant food and are insisting that YOU must not use Gas or Oil but must PAY for “Something to be done” - although of course what that “Something is” they cannot say except that it must be really Green ! - but boy it is going to Cost you !
So how can you NOT have raging inflation ?
WE know Gates is buying Farmland and owns vast swathes of food producing land - and the Buffett owns vast numbers of Trailer parks (the cheapest form of housing) - we can see where the oligarchs think food prices and accomodation are going ! (Does That count as “Inflation” - under your fake figures ?
The question which intrigues me is not "Are we due inflation ? or even “raging inflation” - the real question as I see it is
4th quarter might tell us a lot, Christmas sales were strong last year as people had lots of government cash, that may not be the case this year
On this subject the upcoming 2022 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment ( COLA) should tell a lot, below is a chart showing the COLA for each year, only once this century has been above 5%, that was in 2008, then we got no COLA the two years after that. We might be repeating history
Just as a quick check - I did a little sheet to see the distortions - UK/US exchange rates are comparable now wit 1986 - so It might be helpful for anyone wannting to compare prices and wages etc - if you happen to know any historical prices of any asset or wages.
In any case it can be easily seen that the real rate of inflation (Assets) is way outstripping what they tell YOU !
And indeed exactly Why
The question I would ask is
"What prices exactly are used to calculate ‘COLA’ ?
I think that is a very important question.
It should also be noted that Men now work for approximately HALF the wages they used to work for at the beginning of your figures - due to the enforcement of Women into the workforce ! 
Not what the Fed thinks right now - there is a consensus that demand will continue to rise but supply will be slower - prices rises possible into the months of next year:
Where are the FOMC minutes stored? - Trading Discussion - BabyPips.com Forex Trading Forum
In the UK we are receiving a constant flow of communication from suppliers on both price rises and lack of supplies - just today 1 message re no supply (US products) until next year.
Speaking last week to a re-cycler - he was amazed at current prices on finished wood, paper and metals.
CRB most recent peak was Apr 2011 - most recent trough was Apr 2020. it has risen in the past 15 months the equivalent of the previous 5 years fall.
Will inflation be a problem for the long term? - not likely, will there be further upward pressure in the short term? - very likely.
they use the CPI numbers for COLA , but who can believe the CPI, as they seem to cherry pick data. Cost of living is also different for seniors as most of their cost is medical followed by housing and Food
Can anyone say with a straight face say medical, housing and Food prices are only up 5%
Now I hear their is a Rubber shortage which is going to cause a big increase in Tire prices
It just never ends
Global supply and demand hit by port congestion according to this. Quote: “10% of the world’s shipping capacity has been taken out due to port congestion issues”
Graphic from this article:
Extreme consumer demand, principally in the US, has combined with Covid-19 shipping and port dislocations all year, creating unprecedented congestion across the globe as well as record freight rates and all-time lows for liner schedule reliability.
Don’t know enough about economics to put any point across but this video had some convincing arguments for the impact of inflation being permanent.
Yep - that has been the case from late last year - quote for a 40ft container from Taiwan was 12k - usual price 2.5k.
Even worse was the fact that no competitor would even quote.
There was a consensus that the Chinese New Year would herald an alleviation which is indeed the case,
Maersk, the largest container shipping line and vessel operator in the world, has been significantly affected by the container shortage but believes that the current situation will soon improve.
Global shipping container shortage: the story so far (ship-technology.com)
While CPI is highest since 2008 if u pull up a chart of it you can see that after the high in 2008 inflation fell off a cliff.
I believe we are about to do the same again - and that Jerome has it correct - as does the bond market.
Sure there are and will always be pockets of inflation but all the numbers - unemployment, business failures etc point to a Japan style deflationary bust ahead.
And before anyone even points out a rampant money supply can I counter by saying take a look at money velocity.
Cost of producer prices are rising but these prices are IMO going to be rejected by the consumer.
Note that China is falling into a deflationary spiral and they were the first to get and recover from Covid.
In 2008 all commodities fell by the highest margin since Reuters started their recording.
Remember the 100 dollars a barrel days - it was going to 200 they said - then something happened… something to do with real estate and banks if I recall 
I just did a bit of research into money velocity and that was scary. From my own experience people have been spending like crazy but on the charts it has just dropped of a cliff.
If I understand it right. People spend less, demand is reduced so supply has to reduce price. Then companies earn less money so people get paid less. The cycle perpetually continues.
I had a look at japans house prices, nikkie index, house hold income since 2000. It basically done nothing. Maybe we will be looking at stagnation for the next few years then.
On the EU side of things - seems that Weidman figures 5% inflation rate in Germany in around 18 months time.
The caveat is that he is well known (as are most German economists) for his dislike of printing.
A lot of smart people ( non of them work for the Fed Reserve) see the US following Japan. “Stagnation” could be the correct answer.
I see everything our corrupt government has their fingers on will continue to inflate ( education, healthcare, housing) while we will see downward deflation pressures coming from innovation, such as Robotics, A.I. and Biotech. In the end these forces will factor each other out and Stagnation will be the end result
You’re completely wrong of course !
Your noble and experienced leader is adamant that ‘printing money’ CURES Inflation !
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The traditional idea of money printing is what happened in Zimbabwe, Hungary, or Weimar.
The Fed is NOT doing that - despite claims that they are by the gold-centric newsletter community (who wants you to buy their product).
Quantitative Easing is NOT money printing, at best it is BANK RESERVE printing, that actually sucks money out of the system.
So QE IS deflationary.
Certainly, the experience of Japan over the past twenty years does not indicate that QE is money printing.
While there is a lot of things wrong with the Fed, and the bloated US government debt to say they are money printing is deliberate misinformation, from those who are talking their own book.
Sure, we have had asset price inflation, as banks likely have lent to well-heeled investors and NOT main street.
And of course, we have pockets of price rises inflation as harsh weather, lack of water, and increased population have pushed pressure on food prices.
But if we were having broad-based inflation we would be seeing increase in money velocity and that is not the case.
I agree we COULD have a stagflationary environment, as demand for goods outstrips falling output, but it is not due to money printing (at least using the approach of the Weimar Republic in the 1920s).
I know we’ve touched on this before - but please do step me through that logic again in words of one sylable !
I do remember Japan when it was steaming (1980s / 90s ?) watching a programme where people were buying houses on 100 year mortgages !
I think I’m not qualified to talk you through the mechanics of QE.
The world’s most qualified expert on the subject is Dr Lacey Hunt - plenty of stuff out there where he explains why QE is not inflationary
Hi John,
I do get what you are saying, the US is deferent than those other countries as our dollars are printed into existence through debt, debt with interest, which means there must be a continues supply of new debt based money coming into the system. Which sounds to me like a Ponzi Scheme.
This money ponzi reminds me of the economy from the novel Brave New World
I don’t think it can go on forever but I do think they can keep it going another 30 years, I will likely not be around to see the crash but my granddaughter will and I fear for her future
