Is there such a thing as trader's intuition?

Helloooo. :open_mouth: I’ve been reading through different forex forums and found a trading journal about “Intuition Trading.” :thinking: In my mind, it makes sense that if you’ve been doing something for a long time already, it becomes almost like a reflex and you get so familiar with a lot of things about it, so you can get better results. :open_mouth: But I’m not sure if it really applies to forex. :sweat_smile: What do you guys think about this? :open_mouth: Especially for those who have been trading for a long time already, do you think there’s such a thing as a trader’s intuition?

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Here is what our artificial friend says on the subject. I will read after posting. I find AI useful in most cases, if only for providing links to more detailed information sources. :slight_smile:

Certainly! Let’s delve into the concept of trader’s intuition in the context of financial markets:

  1. What Is Trader’s Intuition?
  1. Developing Intuition in Trading:
  • Experience and Knowledge: Each trade, whether profitable or not, contributes to a trader’s learning experience. Over time, traders discern patterns and understand market behavior.
  • Self-awareness: Recognizing personal biases and emotions is crucial. Distinguishing intuition from emotion-driven decisions helps make more calculated choices.
  • Tuning In to Instincts: Sometimes, the subconscious mind detects subtle cues that the conscious mind might overlook. Experienced traders pay attention to consistent feelings about trades or circumstances.
  • Balancing Intuition with Analysis: While intuition is powerful, it should complement thorough market analysis. Back up gut feelings with sound data and perspectives from knowledgeable sources1.
  1. Real-world Applications of Intuition in Trading:
  • Imagine a seasoned trader observing a chart pattern. Their intuition might prompt them to take action even before they consciously analyze the data.
  • Intuition can guide traders during fast-moving market conditions, helping them make split-second decisions.
  • However, it’s essential to combine intuition with concrete analysis to avoid relying solely on gut feelings.

Remember, developing trader’s intuition takes time, discipline, and continuous learning. Trusting your instincts is a journey that evolves with experience123.

Learn more

1daytrading.com2eminimind.com3medium.com

Edited. The first link in green text is also worth a read on the subject. The Role of Intuition in Trading - DayTrading.com

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Hi, Thank you for sharing, the information is great!!

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Thanks @Mondeoman for the breakdown and @ria_rose for bringing this up, as a matter of fact just getting to know about the word “trader’s intuition”.

But here is the question as @ria_rose said and i quote

If the trader’s intuition is something applicable to forex, why should we still lose? (Here, we can all agree we not talking of amateurs of the market now)

As a matter of fact am beginning to picture of people like Warren Buffet who have been in the market for a very long time, do such people still lose money? will there be times people like this will have issue regards market psychology? Or have they become something i will call demons of the market?

Trader’s Intuition — I’m very much interested in this topic.

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Trading is all about probabilities and risk management.
And the “Edge” above the rest is always the intuition…may not always work in your favour… however with time and experience keeps getting better.

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Yes. I watched a recent interview of Warren Buffett and he reminisced that he wished he and Charlie had $10M to invest. There were many opportunities. But when you try to invest $10B, you affect the market it is so big a trade. The guy has accumulated (I recall) about $180 billion in cash and the commentators are saying he is getting ready for a big crash. Aren’t we all? I have spent more time concentrating on “the macro” in the past two years than at any other time of my life. I find it quite hard to shift asset class just for my own funds, I can’t imagine how hard that would be dealing with gazillions of other people’s money.

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People are able to absorb evidence, data, clues, information etc. which they did not consciously search for and don’t consciously recognise. Obviously they can’t rationalise later what they did.

So if you have a bad feeling abvout clicking the buy button, don’t ignore it. But then go and look for the reason.

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Hey there! :blush: As a new trader, I totally get what you’re saying about “Intuition Trading.” It seems logical that experience can sharpen our instincts, making decisions feel more reflexive. But in forex, I’m learning it’s crucial to balance intuition with solid analysis and risk management. What do seasoned traders think? Does intuition really play a big role?

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A very good and important point, @jomina!

One should definitely avoid getting sucked into the belief that a trader can trade successfully based simply on personal intuition. There is no substitute for solid analysis and risk management.

As mentioned above, “intuition” here is more a form of recognition based on repeated previous experience and not some kind of inherent transcendental mystical gift. What we experience, we know.

As one person put it: “If I had a phone or electronic device 100 years ago I would appear mystical” .Price movement is purely the result of the current changing imbalance between supply and demand.

Certainly, we can say that sometimes we get lucky - but there is no such thing as a lucky trader.

One could draw an analogy in driving a car. Once one has driven for many years in many conditions, one learns to intuitively and spontaneously interpret and adapt to driving conditions and what other road users are doing - and without any conscious systematic analysis and consequential decision-making process. :slight_smile:

“Experience” is a far more appropriate term than “intuition”, I think?

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Couldn’t agree more! Experience over intuition any day. It’s just about risk management and a great strategy.

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Hi,
I just want to share my opinion. As I know there is no such thing as intuition in trading. If someone tells you intuition, it can be concluded, the person has no fix trading strategy.
To survive in trading, one must have clear money management, strategy and analysis.
If we still has no clear definition to those, my advice to learn more before involve trading with real money.

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I guess at times like this, AI kinda has some valid points! :joy: Thank you so much for sharing this Mondeo! :smiley: I’m reading through the first article now, but already good points raised. :thinking: If trader’s intuition is honed by past experiences, deep market understanding, and the ability to recognize patterns (from years of experience), then it would make sense that there is indeed such a thing. :open_mouth: I’m sure you do, but would you say you have trader’s intuition? :thinking:

Yeah! :blush: I’m super happy cause the responses to the question are very interesting and informative. :blush: How about you? What’s your take on this? :open_mouth: Do you think it exists? :blush:

That’s a good question. :thinking: Actually, I feel like there’s still a lot to ask about this topic. :sweat_smile: I know a lot of experienced traders here who still get their fair share of losing trades. So, how many years or how much experience is needed to really get trader’s intuition if it does exist. :open_mouth:

Interesting. :thinking: Hmmm. In this sense, would you say intuition gives you the same edge as a trading system? :thinking:

Oh wow. :open_mouth: Tbh, I’m not sure how I feel about that. :sweat_smile: Even the big names end up with losses.

This might be a stupid question so I’m super sorry. :open_mouth: But can you share a bit more about this? Is this the crash in the economy? Hasn’t that already happened with all economies in decline? :open_mouth:

Thanks for that tom! :blush: I think that’s the best way to go about it. :smiley: And I can imagine the fulfillment of following your gut, looking for the reason and ending up being right. If you don’t mind, does this happen to you often? :open_mouth: From your posts that I’ve read, I got the impression that you’re one to really stick to your trading system.

Thanks for that explanation, Sovos! :blush: You raised valid points, and the analogy was also very interesting! :blush: And to piggyback on that analogy, it’s like, from experience, you know that something is wrong with your car the moment you turn the ignition, so you decide to stay instead of leave. If that makes sense. :sweat_smile:

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I don’t believe intuition in trading. All decision will be done base on data. It’s very dangerous to assume if someone has trading intuition. This word can only lead to 2 things: the person doesn’t know how to analyze the market or there is secret that doesn’t want to be revealed.

Most trading strategy will be called quantitative strategy. Everything must be done base on quantitative data.
Even news can be quantify, such as PMI, NFP, etc.

The only thing can be categorized as intuition is qualitative news. For example the speech of FOMC members. You need skill to interpret the meaning and intonation of the speaker. In the beginning it can be intuition, but after along time, you will call it statistically or tendency. And if we are a news trader, this “intuitive” thing ( will call it as skill to interpret situation ), will be useful.

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Maybe not exactly same… but somewhat similar if you have been in the game for a long time.
An experienced trader can either rely on the edge of a well thought out Trading system, which has undergone rigorous testing… or the trader can just rely on the edge of his Traders intuition without any rational reasoning… purely relying on his instinct.
The probability of either of the above working in favour or against the trader is pretty much the same.
As i mentioned in my above post, trading is a sum game of Probabilities and risk management. Intuition is always an edge for an experienced trader. However may not necessarily work every time.
Having said that, Yes… Traders Intuition definitely is a “Thing”

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