What! They better not be.
Looking into this…
traddingview claim to be realtime but % differ from myfxbook
who give % change by timeframe
TV is just daily
this is important, eg yen soaring yesterday, reversed very quickly
FINVIZ are delayed by 15 minutes on nasdaq, fx same as tv
both are good
myfxbook is different, maybe they are delayed
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New Strategy
Won 1,300,00 today on GBPJPY, and the NZDCAD three month
fiasco is over, which incurred 35% DD at one point
Account is now back to good order and by Monday should be just 4%DD
from my opening balance as of October 1st
So basically a new start for the new year. perfect timing
My new strategy?
The original bands strategy but highly refined
When you are way above/below bands, price is definitely
drawn to the bands and will usually cross right through them and
beyond
As we’ve seen, sometimes it goes horribly wrong, locking you
in a losing trade for months, and bands shift to price instead
of price moving to bands
Hopefully that has now been fixed
We still look for big gap to bands
but price MUST be bouncing off major level of S/R
S/W analysis MUST show major disparity between the two
currencies
Even when D1 or Weekly TF show up or down trend it is not
relevant
We move down to Lower TF an ensure Trend Strength
MUST be 80% plus
Most importantly, we MUST only trade through Open
Space with no prior congestion zone
Several Entry signals
On screenshot below, you see trade in two stages. Why?
because on lower TF there was minor prior congestion zone,
so I placed today’s trasdes TP below congestion, and Pending
Buy order above that zone
so, if price never made it through that zone, my order would
not be triggered
Actually, this strategy cashes in on a very strong trend on
H1 or H4, but on D1 or Weekly, is far diverged from Bands
and is there a classic Swing Trade
So set up qualifies as a high probability trend trade and a
high probability HTF Reversal Swing trade at the same time
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CADJPY
I have my eye on CADJPY for next week, but everything
depends on S/W rankings
On the D1 Bands HTF we are well below Bands, CCI
and BB_MACD are in complete Bullish agreement
WE have confluence from two Harmonics, and
there is Divergence
Also a powerful Engulfing candle
Three three horizontal dotted lines are the key levels
easily found using Donchian.
The Reversal occured at a Key Fib level but I
removed the AutoFib indicator due to dangerous
levels of garishness
On the left we have the H1 Trend strength moving
up, along with S/W rankings are the vital ingredients
that tell us high probability price on Daily will move
up to Bands, not Bands drop to price
Even so, on Daily, even if everything lines up, I will wait
until price moves into the WOS zone before entering
There may not be many fully qualifying trades each
week, but they should be worth waiting for
The WOS in this instance is 154 pips and exit is only
just beyond Proximal Band
No guarantee it will sail 500 pips past Distal Band
although it might
I won’t enter until price has open space ahead,
and will get out before the next prior congestion
zone
It’s not just about the money, although it mainly is,
but I also want to be in and out as quickly as possible
to avoid months of congestion.
I’ve learnt a priceless lesson over last three months
I used to love driving in UK, as long as I could miss
all the jams. exactly the same here
Don’t need the stress
I felt the conditions were right to enter CADJPY above
I didn’t feel particularly dysfunctional, but something on the chart
didn’t look quite right
It turned out I had entered AUDJPY by mistake
Not too terrible as it was similarly qualifying, except much less
WOS
So without delay I thought I had better enter the real CADJPY
Except this time I entered CHFJPY which was not a even a set up
So, for a third attempt I tried to enter on the right pair, after all
how hard can it be
I am very proud to announce, that on the third attempt I did
manage to open a position on CADJPY
I was able to exit CHFJPY for a small loss, and have a very near TP
on AUDJPY
But it’s carelessness like this that can make or break a trader
In addition to the above screenshot, I found another
great signal using the Free Nexus Program
Doing the very opposite of the official rules, when
the Nexus Oscillator seems to be peaking in one direction,
enter when the CCI crosses zero in the opposite direction,
obviously where supported by price action
In this case we have a very Bullish weekly S/W +102/-37
too much Christmas punch perhaps?
Well, punch or no punch, I may have come up with something
Similar to the Free Nexus system, yet often different
I found a Free Market Sentiment indicator. completely different
to the very attractive screenshots on the programmer’s page
just two boring lines and a 50 level
but dynamite
Here are my initial rules
Look for big impulsive move that takes you way above/below Bands
Check S/W confluence
Wait for Synergy bars to change colour
Look for 80% trend strength on LTF
On Market Sentiment, enter when blue and orange lines cross over 50
price will usually cross through bands, but best strategy is to also
ensure you have enough WOS
All the other stuff is great confluence, but I don’t think you need much more
than this
Here is the above CADJPY trade above, viewed from this perspective
The Nexus system above has now printed an arrow
at probably just the right place
Meanwhile SW Disparity has increased drastically from 65 to 116 and rising
I have also placed a Hedge cautiously. I know it can go wrong
but one thing is to equally ensure that there is open space on Hedge trade
just as much as Main trade.
The last thing I need is for Hedge to be triggered but TP never hit, so
better short distance with bigger Lot size
although I would prefer Hedge to not be triggered. it’s just there
for insurance, that’s all
Again, Nexus seems a brilliant program, freely available from
many sources, including it’s creator. I supply no link nor make
any recommendations, it is based on standard MT4 indicators
after all
Know Thy Indicator!
Indicator insights often turn out to be vain imaginings, in the
quest for that Holy Grail
any reader from last year will remember the in depth analysis
of the STR with all it’s little ‘meaningful’ kinks et al
it was actually quite a repainter
but, returning to my Free market sentiment indicator, I’ve noticed
it’s only really of any use when it crosses it’s central 50 line, in
which case it is deadly accurate!
don’t worry too much about what it does after or before that
so know when to take note of an indicator and when to ignore it
but it got me thinking about the old STR with it’s red line over blue.
it is set to shift and it prints kinks which were seen to be largely irrelevant
how does any indicator know exactly when a retracement will occur in
the future, and for how long? that was hoping for a bit much
Nevertheless, how about using STR, purely for it’s cross over Blue?
Sure enough, it would seem to concur exactly with MS Market Sentiment
They are both crazy in their different ways most of the time, but when
they both make their respecive crosses in unison, it seems to be
extremely relevant, especially when supported by price action and
high SW Disparity
which is now 120 and rising
Failsafe Histogram
The two stand out disasters I had from October were the USDCHF
and NZDCAD
they dragged on and on losing me money
They were both way above the bands at the time
but now looking back, the bands moved, and it looks like
they were below the bands at time of entry
I was a little too infatuated with the bands to notice that
there was in fact, no indications at all that price would
come down - and it didn’t!
USDCHF did eventually come down after an eternity, but
NZDCAD still hasn’t come down since 11.01.2018!
If I had used the Free Solar Winds Joy histogram, it would
have kept me out of both those losing trades
Let’s look at the then and now pics to see what is now so
obvious
USDCHF back in October
No reversal signals at all, just above the Bands at the time
Now looking back with benefit of hindsight, we see how Solar Winds
would have kept me out. the vertical line shows entry
The before and after pics on NZDCAD will be self explanatory
Before-
and looking back-
I have a revised approach, a combination of indicators that seem to work
I’m still looking for price to be well above/below Bands with major disparity on
Weekly SW rankings
There must be a confluence of Harmonic Arrow with an angled
Histogram
Other indicators are Oscillator Divergence, Market Sentiment window with STR
added in, plus Harmonic Pattern indicator.
I still favour Daily time frame, providing I can avoid trades dragging on for months
and Trend Strength should be very high in the wrong direction - the higher the better!
but on H4, ideally a good Trend Strength reading where trend has already
reversed ahead of Daily
and of course, make sure there is WOS
Otherwise you may still win, but after months of sideways congestion - literally
I really want to avoid that
Just looking at my failed USDCHF trade, interestingly, if I had
waited, an harmonic arrow was printed with Solar Winds Joy (SWJ)
angled down, Market Sentiment (MS) lines had already crossed 50
and STR had already crossed Blue
It took 17 days to hit Distal band for 181 pips ignoring WOS
or 4 days to make 113 pips respecting WOS
It was still a bit choppy, but CHF are not the most reliable for
Swing trading, better for trends perhaps
For Best Improvement
Keep away from the charts as much as possible!
Less is more
Don’t get intense
After a period of intense analysis, learn to walk away
for a week or two
You come back with unbelievable clarity and insight!
This is very similar to a recommendation Viper made about a year ago
and Viper was right!
I haven’t checked my positions last two weeks and today
I find account back in good order, thanks to some good wins
unimpeded by myself! It seems to be key, for me at least
So from October 1st, my account hit an all time low of around -35% DD
but now is around -3% down and soon back in the Green -
if I continue to keep out of my own way!
I’ve opened about four new trades, no deep analysis, they just stood
out almost at first sight.
Risk is no more than 2% per trade
On my demo account I am making an absolute fortune - because
I really don’t care! I see a really good set up, a few checks for key levels,
how price has related, and is relating to key MAs, where higher TF is going etc
all the usual stuff, click on buy or sell and just re move my MT4 from my desktop!
Seriously! out of sight, out of mind. The more I keep tampering, the greater the DD.
It is a major breakthrough in Self Realization
So, in other words, I am a set and forget trader
not by choice, I love playing around with all my indicators all day
but the hard facts are that I can’t afford to
I have to literally forget, detach from outcome
Its true, regularly monitoring charts enables you to take remedial action,
but in my case that invariably means closing ‘bad’ trades for a small loss
that promptly then turn around to make hundreds of pips profit that I never
see, having shot myself in the foot - over and over again!
Its nearly all about psychology. and how we do one thing is how we do everything
I used to be a 100% failing salesman, but eventually, after many years I became
a 100% successful salesman, once I learnt to detach from outcome, and genuinely
didn’t care if the prospect bought or not.
Exactly the same with public speaking, so there is commonality here
I’m not advocating this to anyone else, although I strongly advocate that
everyone find out exactly what kind of trader they are
I believe millions may love the idea of quick scalps on the M1 TF. and
some do incredibly well at it. but it’s definitely not for everyone.
Conversely, I’ve tended to favour D1 TF, but I really don’t want to wait months for trades to play out. H4 seems to be the middle ground
I definitely don’t have the same success on H1 or below
so almost 18 months of journal keeping, and whilst it has been incredibly
helpful, I have nothing much to write if I am away from the charts for
a week or two.
Nevertheless, abstinence needs to be monitored for profitability!
and by abstinence I don’t mean from trading, but from checking
Actually you need to have open positions 90% of the time, according
to the well founded 90/10 rule
So we’ll see how things progress
I have found this to be so true! The more I watch and “wonder” the worse I do. Daily charts for me! Check at the end of day and I am done.
Congratulations! I think achieving emotional detachment is a lot harder than folks think!
KC
yes it is hard to get the balance
I miscalculated - It’s now been only 7 days since I opened the charts
and my H4 trades are evidently still open although I won’t re install
my platform until I stop receiving daily statements. hopefully all positions
will be closed this week
I probably then won’t check for set ups until next Tuesday morning, Mondays
aren’t always good
I need my trades to close within a reasonable time, as I can’t open my MT4
platform until current positions are closed, so this puts a limit on the number
of new trades opened each month
I can’t be so over exposed by adding more and more positions without knowing
what the current balance is, and I really can’t keep obsessing over this
at least I am clear on this - set and forget means exactly what it says
In my case, I have a very simple choice; to either completely walk away
and stay away until the daily statements stop
or I can pro actively sabotage my account
I don’t know how I keep managing to do this, but the case against me
since last October is very strong
If self sabotaging my account was a criminal offence, the courts
would probably put a restraining order on me!
I wish it was a criminal offence, but as it isn’t, I place a restraining order
on myself, prohibiting me to go anywhere near my platform while
any positions are still open
It is an extreme measure, I’ve never heard of anyone doing this before
but you hear of uncontrollable eaters wiring up their teeth, protecting themselves
from their own compulsion
I know from several months on Demo, that my positions usually win. The
account screenshots I uploaded were 100% unedited and honest
things only go wrong on my Live account
I have proved that conclusively.
I suddenly become obsessive and compulsive, and my
view of the charts becomes distorted, compelling me to
take drastic ( and unnecessary ) action to prevent
disaster. and in so doing cause the very disaster that I’m
trying to prevent
If I stick to my guns, I should see a steady, gradual equity
curve, without all the wild histrionic DDs
Hopefully
The situation you describe sounds very familiar. I find myself looking at the loosing trades in DD on my statement thinking “If I had a stop loss I would be so much farther ahead!” But as the trades begin to goe south I can find myself disguising “hope” in the cloak of minor support on lower time frames.
I have confirmed that my winning trades tend to do well based on the daily time frame. However, my loosing trades can do just as “bad” not using a stop loss. The positive is good risk management allows the account to weather the DD.
I have highlighted a number of losing trades on my charts and in retrospect ask myself “What was I thinking?” I have found this very educational. I have also found that some of my worst trades were in the USD/MXN. I am starting to believe that I actually trade some pairs better than others. I would think trading S/R - PA it wouldn’t matter what chart I was looking at. Perhaps it speaks to understanding how the pair will behave.
The other “study” I plan on conducting is charting all my winning trades and compare the initial DD/Profit PA. If my profitable trades short or long, of certain pairs are dipping Xpips and then on the ride to profitability perhaps I use a stop loss beyond that dip and get out with minimal loss.
Don’t mean to “highjack” but I find your journal very thought provoking and has been the spark for a number of positive forex “ruminations” for me!
Tx for all your posts Jerome!
KC
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I misread your post, I thought you said my journal had sparked ruination for you! 
that would actually be more believable